Richard on target. Padres batters are not.

Saturday April 10, 2010

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Clayton Richard showed why the Padres had enough confidence in him after a mediocre showing in spring training to give him the #4 slot in the rotation.

Even in a losing cause, Richard kept the Padres in the game with 7 innings of effective pitching. He gave up 7 hits and 3 runs while striking out 4 and walking 3 in the thin Colorado air.

Meanwhile the Padres batters could manage just 1 hit off Colorado Rockies starter Jorge De La Rosa. Other than a single by Everth Cabrera, the Padres seemed baffled by De La Rosa's change up, often swinging at pitches a foot or more out of the zone.

The Padres batters didn't fair any better off the Rockies bullpen, getting just one hit in the final two frames off Rafael Betancourt and rookie Esmil Rogers.

Sean Gallagher sealed the Padres fate by coming in and surrendering 5 hits and 4 runs including a 3 run blast to Clint Barmes in the 8th inning.

Although he was once one of the most promising pitching prospects in baseball and has seen time in the major leagues for parts of 4 years, Gallagher showed today why the Padres felt he was not ready to be a starter.

The final score was 7-0 Colorado and the Padres dropped to 1-3 on the season.

Padres continue to take it to division foes

Thursday September 24, 2009

The San Diego Padres came back from an early 3 run deficit to defeat the Colorado Rockies 5-4 tonight at Coors Field in Denver. The victory gave the Padres their 4th series win in the last five against division foes.

Padres starter Clayton Richard was shaky in the 1st inning allowing a 3 run home run to Tulowitzki after and Everth Cabrera throwing error and a Todd Helton single put men on 1st and 2nd.

Richard settled down after that to throw 5 scoreless innings, but did not get the decision. His line on the night: 6 innings, 7 hits, 3 runs, 2 earned, 2 walks, and 2 strike outs.

Luke Gregerson rebounded from giving up his first runs in the last 2 months in his last outing to throw 1 2/3 innings and record his first ML save. Adam Russell got the win for recording a single out in the 7th.

Cabrera's error was his 19th of the season. It sure seems that Cabrera only commits errors when the play is totally routine and the play tonight was about as routine as they come.

The Padres 6-7-8 hitters went 7 for 12 with 3 rbi and 4 runs scored to pace the Padres offense. Actually, Salazar (2-4 including a triple), Hundley (2-4 with his 8th HR of the year and a stolen base in the 8th inning), and Gwynn (3-4 with the game winning rbi in the 8th) pretty much WERE the Padres offense. Eckstein was his usual pesky self going 2-4 with a sac fly and Headley hit a single in the 8th, advanced to 2nd on a Venable sac bunt and scored on a Hundley single.

The sac bunt by Will Venable was a thing of beauty and I expressed on twitter at the time that I hoped he would teach Gwynn how to follow suit.

The Padres should give an assist to Rockies center fielder Dexter Fowler for a total lack of hustle on a shallow hit to center in the 8th that allowed Chase Headley to score the tying run. Fowler jogged in on the ball hit in front of him and then made a lackluster toss to second base instead of trying to gun down Headley at the plate. Even if he hustled the play would have been close with Headley running from 2nd, but to not make any attempt was inexcusable.

Rockies starter Jason Hammel went 6 1/3 innings giving up 2 runs on 6 hits with no walks and 6 k's. Reliever Joe Beimel took the loss.

The Padres have now taken 2 series against the Rockies and one against the Dodgers and Giants in the month of September. All three are playoff contenders.

In fact the only team to take a series from the Padres this month are the last place Diamondbacks.

I really like what I have seen from the Padres in the 2nd half of this season. With 8 games to play the Padres are now 71-83 on the season. 8 games better than 2008. Playing .500 ball the rest of the way will the Padres 75 wins, an even dozen games better than 2008.

That has GOT to make you feel good about the prospects of a winning season in 2010 if the Padres go out and get a decent bat and one innings eating pitcher in FA or in trade.

Gonzalez hurt in Padres Loss in Colorado

Tuesday September 22, 2009

Got your attention? Good.

Now for the "good" news. It was Edgar Gonzalez that that got hurt.

Egon, who was playing right field for some unknown reason, partially dislocated his left shoulder while diving for a Barmes line drive. Gonzalez failed attempt at the ball led to an inside the park home run for Barmes.

As bad as his defense was, Egon was not responsible for the Padres loss. That falls on the shoulders of the pitching staff that threw 2 wild pitches that resulted in runs and even balked in a run. Never mind that they gave up 14 hits and walked 8 in one of the sloppiest games I have seen from the Padres this season.

In the 6th, 7th and 8th the Rockies scored a run on respectively: a wild pitch, a missed play by Egon in RF, and a wild pitch.

The Padres tried to overcome a 5 run deficit in the 9th inning drawing 4 walks and hitting two singles, but came up a run short.

Mujica started his third game for the Padres and gave up 6 runs on 8 hits and a walk in just 2 2/3 innings. Cesar Ramos took the loss for the Padres in his 3rd major league appearance.

Reliever Matt Belisle got the win for the Rockies after starter jorge De La rosa went only 2 1/3 innings giving up 6 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks.

Padres rally with a Walk off Walk!

Saturday September 12, 2009

Colorado Rockies reliever Franklin Morales, who had 6 straight saves since Huston Street was injured, was wild in the 10th, walking 3 to give the Padres the win 3-1 on a walk off walk tonight at Petco Park.

Heath Bell blew his 2nd straight save at home and 3rd straight against the Rockies, giving up the key hit to Yorvit Torrealba in both games.

Tim Stauffer had another good outing giving up just 1 run on 3 hits and 4 walks in 6 innings. Sean Gallagher got his first win as a Padres with a scoreless 10th.

Esmil Rogers made his first major league start for the Rockies giving up 2 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks over 4 innings.

With the win tonight the Padres surpassed their win total from 2008 with 19 games left in the season.

The rubber match is tomorrow at 1:05pm.
Clayton Richard takes the mound for the Padres against Jason Marquis.

Bell blows 2nd straight at home

Saturday September 12, 2009

San Diego Padres Closer Heath Bell came in and blew his 2nd straight game against the Colorado Rockies. Of 5 blown saves this season, 3 are against the Rockies. He just cannot hold a lead against them.

Bell blows first save at home

Saturday September 12, 2009

The San Diego Padres lead every inning going into the 9th.

Closer Heath Bell came in and it looked like the Padres would continue to be hot and take the 1st game of the series with Colorado.

And then the unthinkable happened. Heath Bell couldn't find the plate and walked two of the first 4 batter and gave up 4 runs for his first blown save of the season at Petco Park.

Game over. Padres lose 4-1 to the Colorado Rockies.

A bevy of Padres relievers had pitched 8 scoreless innings prior to Bell's appearance. Led by Mujica who threw 4 scoreless innings and two effective appearances by Sean Gallagher and Adam Russell.

Then Joe "Becky" Thatcher was brought in to face the lefties in the 7th and nearly gave the game away. Thatcher hit Helton, struck out Hawpe, and then gave up a double to Hawpe. How he got a "hold" for that one I don't know. For Thatcher's second straight appearance and third in his last 5, Gregerson had to come in and pull his fat out of the fire.

Regardless of the hype from Corey Brock at mlb.com, Thatcher has just not been effective in pressure situations. In 21 opportunities he has just 4 holds.

Sometimes stats like ERA just don't tell the real story. Thatcher has a great ERA. Mostly because he only allows other pitchers runs to score and he is taken out of the game after he fails to get out his batters out like last night, but without giving up a run. Others are left to clean up his messes and luckily for the Padres, Gregerson and others have been able to on a consistent basis.

When Gregerson or other relievers come in and pick him up, Thatcher's ERA doesn't go up even though he was totally ineffective, like his last 3 of his last 5 appearances.

Even holds can be a deceiving stat. 2 of Thatchers 4 holds have been in situations where he came in for a single batter. Last night he was totally ineffective, hitting a batter and giving up a double before being pulled, but he still got a hold.

Since being called up on July 20th he has 3 appearances in which he failed to even record an out and another 6 in which he was pulled mid-inning. In other words in 25 appearances since he was recalled from the minors, he has failed to get the job done 36% of the time including 3 of his last 5 appearances, but did it without giving up an earned run. So Thatcher's stats look good, but he still failed at his job. Someone else, namely Luke Gregerson lately, had to come in and saved his worthless behind.

Do you get the idea I don't like Joe "Becky" Thatcher? Well you would be correct. What I don't like even more is the media campaign by Brock and others to push this loser on the fans of San Diego.

Ok enough of my influenza influenced tirade.

Padres end 3-3 road trip with a 5-2 win over the Rockies

Sunday May 31, 2009

The San Diego Padres defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-2 today at Coors Field in Denver to improve their record on the season to .500 at 25-25. The Padres 3-3 record on this road trip was a big improvement over their 5-16 road record going into it.

The game was highlighted by Adrian Gonzalez's league leading 20th home run and closer Heath Bell's league leading 15th save.

When was the last time Padres fans could talk about having two league leaders in a positive category on the roster?

Gonzalez crushed a 3 run shot to left field in the 3rd inning that staked Padres starter Chad Gaudin to a 3 run lead. Gonzalez is now the Padres all time leader in home runs through the end of May and he did it in just 179 at bats. Greg Vaughan had been the previous leader with 17 home runs through the end of May in his Padres record 50 home run season in 1998.

Gaudin went 6 innings, giving up 7 hits and 2 runs (1 earned), striking out 9 including 6 of the 1st 8 batters he faced while walking zero. Gaudin had been plagued by wildness recently, walking 16 in 15 2/3 ip over his last 3 starts prior to today, so it was nice to see him attacking hitters and throwing strikes.

One day after blowing his first save of the season, Bell came in and pitched a perfect 9th for his 15th save of the season.

As much as I howled about the trade that sent Jody Gerut to the Brewers for Tony Gwynn Jr., I must admit to being pleasantly surprised by the offensive production by Jr. He is 10/25 - .320 with 8 runs scored in 9 games. His defense has been less than stellar, but his offense has been outstanding.

The Padres now return to San Diego for a 6 game home stand against the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks starting tomorrow. The Padres split a series 2-1 with the Phillies at Citizens Bank Ballpark in Philadelphia in April as part of a 9-3 start.

Kevin Correia will square up against the Phillies' Joe Blanton in the series opener tomorrow, followed by gimping Padres starter Jake Peavy against rookie Antonio Bastardo in his first major league start on Tuesday.

Can the Padres continue their .739 win percentage at home against the defending World Series champion Phillies and the division rival Diamondbacks?

Padres drop 2nd straight game to hapless Rockies

Saturday May 30, 2009

Well, now we know, Heath Bell is human. He blew his first save and the San Diego Padres lost 8-7 tonight to the Colorado Rockies.

But the game really hinged on errors. Both those called errors and those not called errors.
In the 3rd inning Gwynn Jr twice kicked a ball hit to the gap by Clint Barmes and it was called a triple. 2 batters later Garrett Atkins hit a sacrifice fly to deep center and Barmes scored.

Another error by Gwynn Jr. led to an unearned run. This was a game where the Padres really missed the defense of Jody Gerut.

And there you have the difference in the game.

Bell or another of the Padres relievers may have given up 4 runs in the 9th, but somehow I doubt that given how well they have pitched as a unit for the past 2 weeks.

On a day when the Dodgers also lost, I was hoping to see the Padres would win one and pick up ground in the NL West. It wasn't to be.

Padres shut out in Coors Field

Saturday May 30, 2009

A shutout in Coors? yup. The San Diego Padres lost 3-0 to the Colorado Rockies last night in Denver.

From what I have been reading there have been less than 10 shutouts in Coors field history and the Padres have been part of 4 of them.

Chris Young pitched well, allowing only 2 hits and 1 earned run in 6 ip, but both staffs got squeezed a bit by home plate umpire Jerry Layne and Young walked 6.

If Kouzmanoff does not allow a ball to slip under his glove in the 6th, this could have been a 1-0 game.

1-0 In COORS FIELD!

Adrian Gonzalez was pitched around in this game walking 3 times and will continue to be pitched around until a Padres hitter can prove he can consistently hit in the #5 slot.

Right now Padres #5 batters are hitting a MLB worst .231/.286/.319/.604. They badly need someone to step up and make teams pay when they put Adrian Gonzalez on base.

Scott Hairston is howing he is not the answer and has begun his annual swoon vs RHP. In two weeks he has dropped from .297 to .268 against right handed pitching while still hitting .389 against LHP.

Soon the Padres will be forced to platoon him in most situations and Gwynn is no Gerut against RHP.

Still, the Padres should be able to take 2 of 3 against the slumping Rockies. I guess it will depend on which Josh Geer shows up today.

The Poster Child for the Coors Field Effect

Thursday April 30, 2009

The Poster Boy for the Coors Field Effect

Matt Holliday was considered one of the top hitters in baseball at the end of 2008.

He was coming off his 2nd straight MVP type year hitting .321/.409/.538/.947 with 25 home runs while playing for the Colorado Rockies.

For his 5 year career with the Rockies he was hitting an astounding .319/.386/.552/.938

Today he hit his first home run of the 2009 campaign. Something Changed. What was it?

Answer - The place he plays his home games!

In the off season Holliday was traded to the Oakland A's who play their home games in the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.

To date he is hitting .243/.293/.329/.622 in an A's uniform.

You may be saying its early, he will come around. You are probably right, Holliday will hit better as the season goes along.

The question is how much better?

The answer to that question lies in his home and away splits as a Rockie.

At Coors Field Holliday was a Pujols-like player, a baseball god in plum colored hose, hitting .353/.419/.638/1.057 with one hr every 16.54 at bats.

On the road as a Rockie, Holliday was more like a David Eckstein hitting a workmanlike .280/.346/.451/.797 with one hr every 30.39 at bats.

The Coors effect was much in evidence.

So what can we look forward to Holliday improving to in 2009?

Well, his road numbers for his career are probably a great guide. The ballparks in the AL West are very similar overall to the ballparks he played in on the road in the NL West overall.

So, if you had to project today what Holliday's numbers at seasons end will look like I would go with .280/.340-.350/.450/.790-.800 with 19-20 home runs.

As a Rockie we heard a lot of people on ESPN and Fox Sports saying Holliday would be in line for a $20 million per year contract when he is eligible for free agency following the 2009 season. Just about every sports magazine was singing his praises.

What will they be saying and writing after this season is over?
Is a .280 hitter with mediocre power really worth $20 million?

Not in my book.

In my eyes Holliday is the poster child for the Coors Field Effect.

I have had my say. Now what do you think?

Is Matt Holliday the Poster Child for the Coors Field Effect?

Lopez is not the answer for Padres, Good Defense Is

Wednesday April 29, 2009

The Padres brought up left handed reliever Arturo Lopez in the hopes that he could stop the bleeding in the bullpen when it comes to left handed batters.

Going into today's game the Padres Bullpen is allowing a BAA of .292 to left handed batters.

No such luck. Lopez walked the first two batters he faced, gave up a hard hit 2 run single and then hit a batter before being lifted for Luis Perdomo without getting an out.

Now do not get me wrong. The loss cannot be pinned on Lopez today.

That dishonor goes to Edgar Gonzalez.

Edgar Gonzalez blew a routine play that would have been the 1st out in the 6th and the inning would have ended on a fly ball that was instead a sac fly that scored the 2nd run of the inning.

If Edgar does his job on that ground ball for the 1st out of the inning, Tulowitzki is at 2nd for Ianneta's single up the middle and has to be held at 3rd, Cook either swings away or sacrifices the runners to 2nd and 3rd with 2 out and Fowler's fly ball is the 3rd out of the inning. Lopez does not come into the game in the 6th and the Padres go into the 9th ahead 5-3.

The difference in the game was Defense, not pitching.

Now I know there are going to be alot of people who are whining about the Padres pitching after tonight's game, but their distress and venom is misplaced.

Some will be complaining about the Padres lack of offense against Rockies Starter Aaron Cook despite the fact that the Padres scored 3 runs off Cook and 5 runs in the game. Their misgivings are also misplaced.

They should be complaining about a Padres defense that is average at best and well below average when Edgar Gonzalez is on the field. What galls me the most about this game is the thought that the middle infielder they let get away, Travis Denker, is a very good to great defensive player.

Ladies and Gentlemen, pitching and defense wins championships. ESPECIALLY when you play 81 games in the leagues best pitchers park.

It is time the Padres started to think about how many runs the players they put on the field can prevent, and less about how many runs players with poor defensive skills like Edgar Gonzalez are going to add with their mediocre bats.

So, Arturo Lopez is not the answer to what ails the Padres bullpen, Good Defense Is.

I have had my say, now what do you think?

Padres Win, Padres Win, Padres Win

Wednesday April 29, 2009

The San Diego Padres won 4-3 over the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field in Denver last night.

Chad Gaudin made his first start as a Padre and gave up just 3 hits while walking 4 over 5 shutout innings in his debut.

The Padres staked Gaudin to a 2 run lead in the third inning on a Scott Hairston 2 run blast to LF, but the bullpen was unable to hold the lead with Edward Mujica giving up one run in the 6th on a 2 out home run to Rockies LF Sean Smith and Luke Gregerson giving up two runs in the 7th on 4 straight singles.

The Padres came back in the top of the 9th with a leadoff triple by catcher Nick Hundley and a single by Luis Rodriguez.

Heath Bell came in for the bottom of the 9th inning and shut the Rockies down for his major league leading 8th save.

This win highlighted what has become the hallmark of the Padres team so far this season, a never say die attitude. In my opinion, having so many people write them off prior to the season has put a chip on the Padres players collective shoulders and they have fought back in just about every game.

Last night's win was the Padres 5th coming from behind late in the game and their 6th win in 8 one run games. The Padres lead the NL in wins in one run games so far this season.

With this win the Padres are 11-9 on the season and two games back of the NL West division leading Los Angeles Dodgers.

To be in the hunt after 20 games with 3 starters, 2 relievers and 2 bench players on the DL already is a hopeful sign in the hearts and minds of Padres fans everywhere.

In a side note, Adrian Gonzalez got his first major league stolen base in the top of the 6th inning.

I have had my say. Now what do you think?

Will Fire Baller Morillo be the Padres next waiver wire pickup?

Thursday April 16, 2009

Will the Padres pick up Rockies RHP Juan Morillo?

The hard throwing reliever was designated for assignment on April 9th to make room for Jason Hammel on the Rockies roster, giving the Rockies 10 days to trade or waive him. While they have reportedly had a nibble or two, no offers have been forthcoming.

That means come Monday he will be available on waivers for $20,000.

Will the Padres pick him up? He fits the pattern of hard throwing pitchers with control problems the Padres have been picking up on the waiver wire this season.

The 25 year old Morillo has throws a fastball that sits at 95-98 and occasionally hits 100 mph, but his slider is inconsistent and he has suffered from a lack of control with a k/bb ratio that regressed as he made his way up the farm system to 1/1 last season in AAA Colorado Springs.

So do the Padres pick him up? Who do they send down if they do pick him up?

Moreno, Gregerson, Silva? Who else has options left? Is he better than Perdomo or other pitchers on the staff that wold have to be exposed to waivers?

We will know Monday.

Edit: I guess the Rockies decided not to wait until Monday to waive Morillo and clear that spot in on the roster as he was claimed by the Minnesota Twins who waived RHP Philip Humber.

Changes and Chances in the Wild, Wild NL West

Tuesday January 6, 2009

(Note: Yes I know it’s the 17th. This post turned out to be a whale of a project on limited time and then I took a 9 day trip to 4 different countries and left this sitting on my desktop computer at home. I am STILL not completely finished, so I am going to post what I have and update it as I can. Bear with me please. I promise it will be done before pitchers and catcher report. lol)

On one of my favorite message boards, Friar Nation, a question was posed about what changes were made by each of the NL West teams in the off season and what effect would that have on the teams chance at winning the division.

Once I started my answer, I realized it was a little longer and more involved than a post on a message board should be so I decided to take a crack at it here.

I have not included players signed to minor league deals unless they are expected to crack the 25 man roster and make a substantial contribution. In other words Rule V draftees and guys that are not expected to come in and contribute are not included with the exception of the Padres who may just play ALL of their minor league signings and Rule V draftees.

Here goes.

Arizona

Lost
- LHP Randy Johnson. 30 starts 11 wins 184.1 IP
- RHP Connor Robertson 27 yr old Rookie reliever traded to Mets for Schoeneweis
- SS/2B David Eckstein

Free Agents not expected to be resigned
- Reliever Juan Cruz. 2.61 ERA with 8 holds in 57 appearances
- OF Adam Dunn. 8 hr and 26 rbi in 144 abs, roughly 1/4 of a season
- Starting 2B Orlando Hudson. Hit team leading .305 and played solid D
- Closer/Reliever Brandon Lyon. Team leading 26 saves in 61 appearances

Additions
- 2B Felipe Lopez. 28 yr old hit .385/.426/.538 in limited duty w/the Cardinals
- LH Reliever Scott Schoeneweis. Lefty specialist 3.34 era in 56 appearances for Mets
- Brought back Tony Clark

What this means to their chances to win the NL West
30 starts, 130 relief appearances, and 2 everyday position players left.
50-60 Relief appearances were added and 1 everyday position player.
Max Sherzer will be expected to fill the shoes of future HOF in starts, innings and wins. Those are HUGE shoes to fill for a 24 year old with just 7 starts and no wins to his credit.

With Eric Byrnes still iffy for opening day and a lot of holes still left to fill, the Diamondbacks figure to regress from their 82 wins season in 2008 if they don’t make more moves this off season.


Colorado

Lost
- Of Matt Holliday. .321/.409/.538/.947 with 25 HR & 88 RBI
- Closer Brian Fuentes 30 saves with a 2.73 ERA in 67 appearances
- 2B Jayson Nix Little Used Backup
- OF Willy Taveras Speedy CF Hit .251/.308 with 68 SB in 479 AB
- RP Matt Herges - 5.04 ERA in 58 appearances (FA signed with Indians)
- RP Luis Vizcaino 46 IP and 5.28 in 43 appearances

Free Agents not expected to be resigned
- SP Livan Hernandez - 13 wins in 31 starts w/ 6.05 ERA for Rockies & Twins in 2008.
- C Adam Melhuse. A little used backup. Just 15 games played between Rockies & Rangers in 2008.

Additions
- LH reliever Alan Embree Aging LH specialist had 4.96 era in 70 appearances for A's
- OF Carlos Gonzalez 23 yr old hit .242/.273/.361 in 330 abs his first season at ML for A's. Expected to take the place of Willy Taveras in CF
- RH Starter Greg Smith 24 yr old had 7 wins & 4.16 era in 190 IP for A's. Had Elbow surgery in offseason.
- Closer/Reliever Huston Street 18 saves & 3.73 era in 70 appearances for A's

What this means to their chances to win the NL West
The Rockies lost a perennial MVP candidate in Holliday and one of the best closers in baseball in Fuentes and a true leadoff hitter in Taveras.
31 starts, 168 relief appearances, 25 hrs, 30 saves, and 68 stolen bases gone.
30 starts, 60-70 relief appearances, 4-5 hrs, 4-5 sb, and 18 saves added.
Taveras had a poor season in 2008, but just one year prior he had hit .320/.367
Gonzalez will fill in ably on defense and has more pop in his bat, but will not be able to match the speed or batting average of Taveras.
Huston Street is a reasonable replacement for Fuentes or a good setup man for Corpas.
Smith was the big cog in the trade for Holliday and he is a question mark for 2009 due to elbow surgery in late October. If he heals successfully and if he can continue to progress, he can be a good addition to the Rockies rotation. IF.
Helton is also ailing, he had back surgery September 30th, and his production has seen a marked decline in recent years.
The addition of Jason Marquis would be a wash with Hernandez. A durable, but not good, starting pitcher.

All in All the Rockies have taken a step backwards and are now relying on unproven and in the case of Smith, injured young players to take the place of veterans. A repeat of the 74 win 2008 season is probable if they keep their current lineup.


Los Angeles

Lost
- RH SP/RP Chan Ho Park
- SP Greg Maddux
- SP Brad Penny
- RP Scott Proctor
- OF Andruw Jones

Free Agents not expected to be resigned
- LH RP Joe Beimel
- C Gary Bennett
- SS Angel Berroa
- 3B/1B Nomar Garciaparra
- SP Jason Johnson
- 2B Jeff Kent
- SP Derek Lowe (FA signed with Atlanta)
- Util Pablo Ozuna (FA signed with Philadelphia?)
- Closer Takashi Saito (FA signed with Boston)
- Pinch Hitter Mark Sweeney

Additions
- 2B Mark Loretta
- SP/RP Claudio Vargas
- RP Guillermo Mota

Free agent but who knows what will happen
- OF Manny Ramirez

What this means to their chances to win the NL West
The Dodgers have lost more than half of their relief appearances, more than half of their saves, more than half of their starts, and 3 players with at least some starts at key positions in 2008

By resigning Blake and Furcal, have made splashes in the FA market but not really improved their team. No one has played a full season in the ML after having the surgery Furcal had, so he will again be a question mark health wise all season and Blake has always been considered a utility man, not an everyday 3B.

Mark Loretta is a solid utility man and probably a much better role model for young prospects to learn from in 2009, but certainly will not provide the offense of future HOF Jeff Kent.

Claudio Vargas is a swing man that may be expected to start in a depleted Dodger pitching staff.

If the Dodgers sign Manny Ramirez they can once again be named as the favorites in the NL West. His offensive production is enough to improve the entire lineup. He gives opposing teams a bat to fear in the middle of the lineup and the batters hitting in front of and immediately behind him will see better pitches to hit, improving everyone’s production.

If they don’t sign Manny, their suspect offense and thoroughly depleted pitching will see them make a huge step backwards towards the pack in 2009.


San Diego

Lost
- C Josh Bard Signed with BOS ($1.6 mil, 1 year)
- C Michael Barrett Signed with TOR (minor league deal)
- RP Kevin Cameron Signed with OAK (minor league deal)
- SP Enrique Gonzalez Signed with BOS (minor league deal)
- SS Khalil Greene Traded to St Louis
- RP/SP Clay Hensley Signed with HOU (minor league deal)
- OF Paul McAnulty Signed with BOS (minor league deal)
- 2B Tadihito Iguchi

Free Agents not expected to be resigned
- OF Chip Ambres
- SP Shawn Estes Signed with the LA Dodgers (minor league deal)
- SP Charlie Haeger
- Closer Trevor Hoffman Signed with Milwaukee

Additions
- 2B David Eckstein -

3 signed to minor league deals and added to 40 man roster
RP Chris Britton
RP Mark Worrell
2B Travis Denker – picked up on waivers from Giants

2 picked up in Rule V draft and added to 40 man roster
RP Ivan Nova
2B Everth Cabrera

4 signed to minor league deal and invited to Spring Training
SP/RP Kevin Correia
C Eliezer Alonzo
Util Chris Burke
SP Mark Prior

What this means to their chances to win the NL West
30 Saves, 142 relief appearances, and 3 starting position players gone.
Added an unknown number of relief appearances from players with little or no ML experience, a swing man in Correia, and a starting 2B.

Eckstein will start at 2B, give them a legitimate #2 hitter and allow the Padres to give Antonelli more time to play everyday at AAA and get his hitting stroke back. LRod will give the Padres a better batting average with average defense at SS. They will miss the power bat of Greene, but not his lack of clutch hitting.

The loss of Hoffman will hurt the Padres in the short run. While Bell is a competent reliever, he is no Hoffman and 1st year closers, regardless of their ML experience, average nearly 20% lower save percentage than Hoffman’s 2008 save percentage. In the long term it may free up money to make a trade at the deadline, maybe including Giles, that will set up the team for years to come at other positions.

The Padres probably will not compete in the NL West, but they will improve. Just an improvement from MLB record injuries in 2008 to MLB average injuries in 2009 will give them a huge boost.

I can see them winning 74-78 games in 2009 and climbing out of the cellar.

San Francisco

Lost
C Eliezer Alfonzo C
SP/RP Kevin Correia
RP Brad Hennessey

Free Agents not expected to be resigned
- 1B Rich Aurilia
- SS Omar Vizquel
- RP Tyler Walker Signed with SEA

Additions
- RP Jeremy Affeldt
- RP Bob Howry
- SP Randy Johnson
- SS Edgar Renteria

What this means to their chances to win the NL West
The Giants lost little; a swing man, a reliever, a backup corner infielder and an aging SS.
They have added a future HOF pitcher, a good and slightly less aged SS and 2 good relievers.

The offense of the Giants while still suspect is better and they will offer arguably the best rotation in baseball and an improved bullpen in 2009.

An improvement is probable over their 72 win campaign in 2008. 80-84?


Closing Thoughts
As bad as the Giants were last year, the Padres picked up 3 castaways from their trash heap, Alonzo who got popped for steroids and spent 50 days on suspension in 2008, Correia who is returning from injury in 2008 and Travis Denker who no one can really figure out why he was available on the waiver wire.

As of today 2 teams are in definite decline for 2009, 2 will improve (the Padres have no where to go but up) and the Dodgers are in limbo waiting on Manny.

None of the teams in the West have what I would call a World Series caliber team, but then neither did the 2007 Rockies or the 2006 Cardinals.

Without Manny, no team in the West is a prohibitive favorite to even win the West, let alone take a run deep in the playoffs.

Padres get Two A Ball Players in Rule V Draft

December 12, 2008

The Padres two draft picks in the Major League portion of the Rule V draft has left me wondering what the heck the guys in the Padres Front Office were thinking?

They drafted a Sally League 2B (low A) with a mediocre arm (his arm strength is why he normally starts at 2B and only a few games a year at SS) and a Florida State League pitcher (high A)?

TWO A ball players? WHY? HOW are they supposed to help at the MAJOR league level?

NEITHER of them were even mentioned on any of the pre-draft discussions on Baseball America or Baseball Analysts or Baseball Prospectus or even ESPN. We have seen a rumor posted after the draft that the Blue Jays wanted Cabrera, but its just that, an unsubstantiated rumor. AFTER the draft Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus commented about Cabrera, but NOT in his pre-draft RULE V Draft article.

The Padres certainly should have better scouting than I do, but WHY would they even scout players at that level who have little to no chance of producing immediately at the major league level?

Obviously a Rule V draftee HAS to produce immediately at the major league level since they have to be kept on the major league roster all season.

Padres personnel, please explain what were you thinking, because for the life of me I can't figure it out.

It just makes no sense whatsoever.

And Mr. DePodesta, while we appreciate that you actually HAVE a blog, your blog post about this draft does not clear the confusion at all.

Despite your assertion, Everth's stats don't bear out that he will be a Furcal type player. At the same age and at HIGH A and AA, Furcal hit 40 points higher, his obp was 30 points higher, he stole 25% more bases and his slugging was only 10 points lower(that is just two extra base hits over a season).

That is a huge difference in production.

As for Nova, where exactly can we see him listed as a top prospect for the Yankees as DePodesta claims in his blog post? I can't even find a mention of him on the prospect lists on Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus or John Sickel's Minor League Ball. None of them considered him a Top Yankees prospect.

Even Kevin T. Czerwinski & Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, the Yankees Beat Writers, didn't consider him a Top PITCHING Prospect in their system.

The only place I can even find him mentioned was in the Baseball America 2008 Prospects Handbook where he was initially ranked 18th among Yankees prospects, but that was revised with him out of the top 20 in February 2008.

Nova is not a strike out pitcher and he has not shown he has good control and he just gave up a .294 baa in High A Ball with no appreciable improvement over the 2007 season in Low A Ball. Just what did the Padres see in him that no one else saw?

It seems to me that the Padres drafted these guys just to send them BACK in a couple of months like they did with their Rule V draftees last year. Will these two even make through spring training as Padres? What good does that do the team? All they are doing is wasting 25 man roster slots.

I could see drafting a high potential player, but I don't see where anyone but the Padres front office thinks they actually HAVE potential.

I can certainly HOPE that I will eat my words when Cabrera morphs from a marginal 2B with speed into a Furcal type SS.

I can certainly HOPE that Nova suddenly starts allowing LESS than a .294 BAA in the major leagues.

But I am not going to hold my breath.

I've had my say. Now what do you think?