Padres lineup taking shape

Monday January 3, 2011

With the confirmation of the signing of former Rockie/Ray Brad Hawpe to play 1st base, the 2011 Padres starting line up has finally taken shape.

And it has a completely different look and feel from the 2010 version w/only 3 opening day starters from 2010 returning - Headley, Hundley and Venable.

So without further ado, your 2011 San Diego Padres starting 8:
SS Jason Bartlett
2B Orlando Hudson
1B Brad Hawpe
LF Ryan Ludwick
RF Will Venable
3B Chase Headley
C Nick Hundley
CF Cameron Maybin

The projected opening day starting lineup has aged significantly (4 players over 30 vs 1 on opening day 2010) and improved offensively even with the departure of Adrian Gonzalez.
Bartlett > Cabrera
Hudson > Eckstein
Maybin > Gwynn
Ludwick > Blanks (at least the 2010 version of Blanks)

And we can expect/hope that the 2011 versions of Headley, Hundley & Venable will be better than the 2010 versions as well.

What we will continue to see is a focus on speed and defense.

The only positions with a significant decline on defense are CF, which had the NL best defender Tony Gwynn in 2010, and 1B, which sees Gold glove defender Gonzalez replaced by Hawpe, who only has 72 innings at 1B in 7 season as a major leaguer.

Team speed may have actually increased a little with the additions of Bartlett and Hudson, who stole a few more bases than their 2010 Padres opening day counterparts. Maybin also has significant speed, swiping 14 bases in 115 games between AAA and the Marlins in 2010.

The Padres bench will also be very different in 2011 with only Oscar Salazar returning from the 2010 opening day roster. Likely it will include as many as 4 players who saw playing time in 2010 - Salazar, Chris Denorfia, Aaron Cunningham and Everth Cabrera.

UT Oscar Salazar
OF Chris Denorfia
OF Aaron Cunningham
Catcher - Rob Johnson
Middle Infield - Everth Cabrera/Jarrett Hoffpauir/Eric Patterson

Gone is the Hockey Coach and his power bat off the bench. Gone are the Hairston brothers. Kyle Blanks is recovering from Tommy John surgery and likely to start 2011 in AAA to regain his batting stroke. Gone is team spark plug and coach on the field David Eckstein. Hopefully what remains is a fire for the game we saw in all the young players in 2010.

What absolutely remains the same is the Padres having one of the lowest payrolls in baseball.

With 39 players on the 40 man roster and only a few possiblities for signings or trades remaining (a backup middle infielder, a #4-5 starting pitcher - Chris Young?, and a veteran reliever - Joe Biemel?), a realistic estimate for the Padres 2011 payroll including signing all their rbitration eligible players stands at $42.0 - $42.5 million.

So can the Padres catch lightning in a bottle a second straight season with this very inexpensive and very different lineup?

IMO it depends on the arms. If the performance of the 2011 Padres pitching staff can come close to the 2010 staff and the veteran players can stay healthy, then this Padres club can contend in a largely unimproved NL West.

I've had my say. Now what do you think?

Reasons Dodgers will not win the West - part deux

Thursday May 13, 2010 

 Reasons the Dodgers will not win the NL West part deux

The Dodgers have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games and have been playing well. Manny just came off the DL. Ethier is in the lead in all Triple Crown categories. So maybe some of you are thinking that the Dodgers poor play to begin the year was an aberration. That they are on a winning streak and will soon take the NL West lead back.

As Web would say - Braaaaaaak! Sorry wrong answer. Please Play again.
(Yes. The guy did watch way too many game shows while on the road.)

The very fact that the Dodgers have key offensive players doing so much better than they have in any other season is more of a reason to believe that those players will slump towards their career averages and then the Dodgers will not be able to sustain their current winning ways.

1. Ethier's line - .390/.446/.729/1.175 with 10 hr in 31 games with a BABIP of .391 & an ISO of .339. Look for Ethier's BABIP to drop 60-100 points before seasons end and along with it his batting average, OBP and OPS.  His career ISO is .207 and his best season so far was last year with a .237 ISO and 31 hr, so look for his power numbers to drop drastically as well.
   
2.  Manny's line - .396/.507/.585/1.085 in 17 games with a BABIP of .380 Manny WILL hit .300-.330 for the season, but his batting average will drop 60 - 90 points along with a big drop in his OBP and OPS.
   
   Wait for it...the list of overachieving players on a losing team continues...
   
3. Loney 's line - .326/.361/.474/.835 with a BABIP of .376. His power numbers are right on his career averages, but he has been lucky to the tune of 57 points. Even if this is a career year, his BA and OBP will drop 25-30 points. Its more likely we will see a 40+ point drop.
   
   Web would probably call this "regression towards the mean".
   
4. The Pitching Staff is performing right now about the same pace we expected they would for the year. The noted exceptions are:

• Kurodi will probably see a slight rise in his ERA. There have been a lot of errors committed behind him so his Earned Runs are down, but his Runs Allowed is at almost exactly the same rate we saw from him last season.
  
• Billingsley will likely have a 30 point drop in his 4.85 ERA to closer to his 4.56 xFIP. Still not good pitching from the guy that was supposed to be an ace.

Replacing Randy Wolf and Jon Garland with Vicente Padilla and Charlie Haeger was a failed experiment early. John Ely has pitched well, but when/if Padilla returns what you have seen this season is the real Padilla. Its what the Rangers saw from him in 2007, 2008 and 2009.  The Dodgers have shown they really don't have much depth of pitching.

Other than Sherrill, no one in the pen is doing substantially worse than most people were expecting from them, especially the relievers whose arms were tasked with and taxed by 70 appearances last season.

What does that all end up to mean? The Dodgers current 8-3 win streak is not sustainable. .500 is a good goal for them to shoot for over the course of the season. If the Padres are going to be caught in the NL West, its not going to be by the Dodgers.

- Vic Power

Playing Pepper - Padres Predictions & Commentary

Sunday March 21, 2010

This article is reposted from the BBA Playing Pepper Series with a few small changes made for clarification such as adding the team name.

1) How was the Padres off-season?  What kind of grade would you give it?

The Padres had a relatively quiet, but still successful offseason. Jed Hoyer, the Padres new GM, filled positions of need with less than a handful of moves.

• Hoyer traded Kevin Kouzmanoff to the Oakland Athletics for former Padres fan favorite Scott Hairston and top A's prospect Aaron Cunningham. Both are RH hitting outfielders. Hairston plays good defense in both CF and LF and hits LHP extremely well, plus has shown Petco power. A Rare commodity indeed.
  
  This trade helped the Padre more on a defensive side than offensively. Moving headley out of LF and moving Blanks into LF full time improves the Padres defense by at least 9 runs. Venable playing RF full time improves the defense by another 8-9 runs or more. And a platoon of Gwynn and Hairston gives the PAdres plus defense across the outfield in 2010.

• Hoyer signed uber utility player Jerry Hairston Jr. Hairston Jr joined his little (but bigger) brother Scott on the Padres and brings all 4 of his gloves with him. Hairston Jr. can play all 8 positions in the field and provides plus defense at 2B and all three outfield positions. Along with his brother and Oscar Salazar, Hairston Jr. gives manager Bud Black one of the most versatile benches I have seen on a Padres team.

• Hoyer signed Jon Garland, a very durable pitcher who has averaged over 190 IP for the past 8 seasons, for a rotation that has been decimated by injuries in recent years. Last season the Padres used 15 starting pitchers including 7 rookies.

• Hoyer signed Yorvit Torrealba to a $750k contract to back up incumbent starter Nick Hundley. Torrealba had earlier turned down a 2 yr/5.6 million contract to return to the Rockies. He really does not have much power, but he calls a very good game and plays plus defense. He will likely start 50-70 games for the PAdres in 2010. A solid pickup for pennies on the dollar.

Overall I would give Hoyer a B- for his offseason moves.
While he failed to sign a big name FA or make a blockbuster trade that would make a splash, he did fill all the major holes on the roster and improve the team overall. Sometimes less is more.

2) What is the key to success for 2010?

Health!

Yes I know most people would say it is having the young players step up, but I believe all those young players have to do or the team to be successful is to stay healthy and do exactly as well as they did in 2009. After all, the bunch that will take the field in April are mostly the same ones that won 37 of their last 62 games in 2009.

So I say health.

The Padres have been among the most injured teams in baseball the past 3 seasons. They set the major league record for player days on the DL in succeeding years and would have broken their own record again if it was not for the hapless Mets. At one point in 2009, the Padres had 5 starting pitchers and 4 starting position players and the key bat off the bench all on the DL. 40% of the 25 man roster was on the DL. It is not a coincedence that that was the worst stretch in the season for win-loss record.

In 2010 they must stay healthy.

That starts with the pitching staff.
Chris young, the Padres Ace by default, has been snake-bitten for the past 3 seasons. He needs to make 30 or more starts and return to his pre-2008 form.

Mat Latos, the Padres budding ace, has never pitched more than 123 innings in a professional season due to injuries. While he has overpowering stuff, he must stay healthy.

Overall the Padres set a ML record by having 15 pitchers start games in 2009 and 15 players made their major league debut for the team.

3) What will be the Padres team strength?

The Bullpen.

The Padres had a great pen in 2009 ending up 7th in ERA and OPS allowed and they all return. Bell, Adams and Gregerson made up perhaps the toughet 7-8-9 combination in baseball.

In the Peavy and Hairston trades in 2009 the Padres added several good power pitchers for the bullpen in Adams and Russell, and they have two former 1st round picks  that may make the bullpen out of camp in Stauffer and Poreda plus a former top prospect in Sean Gallagher that is out of options.

And some of the Padres best pitching prospects are also relievers. Evan Scribner, Wynn Pelzer, Craig Italiano, among others.

4) What could be the Padres Achilles' heel?

Health and youth.

If the pitching staff cannot stay healthy and young players such as Cabrera, Blanks, Venable and Latos are not able to repeat the level of play they had in 2009, then the Padres are in for a long and disappointing season.

5) Who will be the Padres team MVP?

IF, and its a HUGE if, he is a Padres all season, Adrian Gonzalez will be the teams MVP.

If he is traded, my pick would be Kyle Blanks.

6) Will a rookie make a significant impact on the Padres in 2010, and if so, who?

Most of the top young players exhausted their eligibility as rookies in 2009. Everth Cabrera, Kyle Blanks, Clayton Richard, Mat Latos, Will Venable and Luke Gregerson all had enough IP or at bats to not qualify as a rookie in 2010.

In 2010 I do not see many rookies making the team. Possibly Matt Antonelli at mid-season if he finally gets it together at AAA or Lance Zawadzki if there are injuries on the Padres squad in the middle infield or possibly a reliever such as Evan Scribner if Heath Bell is traded away, but there just are not that many rookies who will make the major leagues youngest roster in 2010.

7) Who will be the breakout player for the Padres?

Kyle Blanks. I believe with a full year of at bats and getting to play just one position all season will give Blanks the confidence to excel. I predict "Gigantor" will explode in 2010, hitting 30+ hr and driving in 80+ runs.

8) Which player will drop off the most from 2009?

This is a very young team that should improve in 2010, but if I had to pick one player it would be Tony Gwynn Jr.

Jr. had never hit above .260 in parts of 3 ML seasons prior to joining the Padres and was on a high joining the team he grew up watching his father play for and getting to play in front of his hometown. He hit for a .270 or so average in the minors, so we know what kind of player he has been throughout his professional career. He may have a slight slump in 2010.

I am not predicting that will happen, mostly because he will be platooning with Scott Hairston in CF. He will have an opportunity to hit mainly against RHP and he has excelled at hitting RHP to this point in his career. Its LHP that have given him fits, so if he becomes the starter, he could struggle alot in that area.

9) Who is the most likely Padres player to be dangled as trade bait?

Adrian Gonzalez is the obvious choice here. Most people feel that a trade of Gonzalez is inevitable because the Padres just cannot afford the $20+ million salary he would command once his current contract is up after the 2011 season.

I also think that Heath Bell, Chris Young, Jon Garland, Jerry Hairston Jr. and Yorvit Torrealba could also be up for grabs if the Padres are struggling going into the All Star break.

10) What will be the Padres final record and divisional standing?

I am very optimistic going into this season. My prediction for 2010 is 81 wins and 3rd in the NL West.

Why the Padres CAN compete in 2010

Wednesday December 9, 2009

The Padres had a pretty good team in 2009 that was decimated by injuries. I believe that with a few key additions the Padres can compete in the NL West in 2010.

This is pretty stream of consciousness, but I think once you see my argument, you will at least have to think twice about writing off the Padres in 2010.

The Padres played .527 baseball the 2nd half of the season and .596 baseball from July 27th on. That after playing .500 baseball in both April and May.

Throw out a stretch from June 1st to the All star break when the Padres went 11-27 and the Padres played 64-60 baseball the rest of the year.

No way around it, that is good baseball from a group of young baseball players. No mirage there. The mirage is the 11-27 stretch in the middle of the season when the starting rotation was devastated by injuries.

Now the pitching staff has incredible depth to deal with the inevitable injuries, but no real veteran top of the rotation guy in there.

We don't know how Sheets will respond once he returns from this latest injury, but his career averages are enough to put him at or near the top of the Padres current rotation. 27 starts and double digit wins for maybe $5 - $7 million on a 1 year deal.

Same can be said for Rich Harden although he may get closer to $7 million on a one year deal and he has averaged only 20 starts over the last 6 seasons.

Mulder, who is 32 years old, was a #1-#2 starter before injuries set in.  No one knows how well he will pitch in 2010, but certainly he is worth bringing in on a incentive laden 1 year deal, just like Prior was. If you win, you win big. If you lose it doesn't cost you much.

Uggla is available in trade and the Marlins will be looking for only prospects and young, controllable player in return. The Padres have Kouzmanoff and lots of good young prospects they could trade for him. He is also a 30 HR RHB at 2B. How many of those are there? One other, Chase Utley.

That move also gives the Padres a chance to move Eckstein to a middle infield utility position that the team does not have now.

It adds 25-30 home runs at a non run producing position and shores up the bench at the same time.

Add a decent power hitting catcher like Miguel Olivo and you have a solid team that can make a run at the NL West.

The Dodgers will be lucky to resign Wolf (update - Wolf signed with the Brewers today) and its doubtful they will be in the running for any major FA with the impending divorce there. Their pitching was suspect in 2009 and they may be losing Belliard, Hudson, Loretta, Thome, Garland, Padilla, Wolf and Weaver.

The Diamondbacks sunk, when most expected they would get better and they are going to be without Webb, Davis, Garland, and Petit to start 2010. Their OPS+ in 2009 was among the lowest in the league(while the Padres was above league average). They made a huge trade yesterday giving up two good young pitching prospects in Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth for Edwin Jackson of the Tigers and Ian Kennedy of the Yankees. In my opinion they have made a marginal improvement in their pitching staff for a huge leap in costs.

The Rockies will be cutting payroll with Marquis and his 15 wins, Josh Fogg, Joe Beimel, Garret Atkins, Yorvit Torrealba,  Alan Embree, Herges and possibly Rafael Betancourt  leaving the team.  They will still be good and will probably be contenders in the NL West as well.

The Giants will still have great pitching, Lincecum's marijuana bust not withstanding, but their offense was the worst in baseball in 2009 and it would take several huge signings to make it any good.

With a big bat to protect Adrian in the batting order and a #2 starter added to a core of good young players the Padres should be able to contend in a weakened West.

What do you think? Who would you sign? What trades would you make to help the Padres contend in 2010?

NL West now NL's Best

Thursday June 25, 2009

Don't look now, but the division of baseball once called the NL Worst is now the National League's winningest division.

Led by the Los Angeles Dodgers, the NL West leads all NL divisions with a .515 winning percentage (184-173). The 6 team NL Central is next at .497 (210-212) and the much lauded NL East, home of the defending World Series Champion Phillies, brings up the rear at .466 (164-188)

Only the AL East, home of the Yankees, Red Sox and defending AL Pennant winner Rays have a better winning percentage than the NL West at .538 (184-173)

Why the Padres CAN win the West

Wednesday May 27, 2009

Why the San Diego Padres CAN win the NL West in 2009.

I keep hearing people saying that the Dodgers have the NL West won and no one else has a chance of winning the division.

I want to present one counter argument to that misplaced thought.

(Note: I starting writing this article several days ago and am just getting around to posting it so, even though I have adjusted several of them some of the stats may be off just a bit, but the general idea is still as sound today as it was Tuesday.)

Before I give you any more commentary let me post a few stats.
Can you figure out why these stats show the Padres CAN still win the NL West?

Padres
Brian Giles - .175
Kevin Kouzmanoff - .231
David Eckstein - .225
Edgar Gonzalez - .190
Chase Headley - .234
Chris Young - 4.76

Dodgers
Juan Pierre - .395
Casey Blake - .309
Orlando Hudson - .349
Brad Ausmus - .355
Randy Wolf - 3.02
Jonathan Broxton - 1.17

So what do all these players and their stats have in common?

They are all far off their career norms.

One of the most accurate predictors of human performance is called "Regression (or progression) Towards the Mean".

What that means is athletes tend to move from where they are currently towards their career averages during the course of a season, whether that is regressing or progressing.

In real simple terms, if a player has hit .250 for the first 7 years of his career and is currently hitting .350, he will almost certainly slump from .350 towards .250 as the season goes on.

There are occasional career years or break out years in which a player hits substantially more than his career averages, but in subsequent years they almost always regress towards the career average.

So the players listed above are far off their career norms, and only one, Kouzmanoff is in the age group most likely to have a break out year, so all should regress or progress towards their career averages.

All but one of the batters are more than 40 points off their career averages coming into 2009.

So why does this mean the Padres CAN contend in the NL West?

Brian Giles is hitting more than 120 points below his career average. Considering his age, if he only regresses to f his relatively low combined batting average for the last 3 years, he still will improve by 100 points.

Kevin Kouzmanoff is hitting 35 points below his career average of .266 coming into this season. Kouzmanoff has hit an average of 20 home runs per season and currently he has 4. He has been a player that hit better later in the season his first two seasons, so we should be able to expect an improvement as this season goes along.

David Eckstein has been a very consistent hitter. Not a high average guy for sure, but most years in the .270-.300 range with a career average of .285 coming into the season. Right now he is 60 points below his career averages and chances are he will improve as the season progresses.

Edgar Gonzalez and Chase Headley do not have full seasons at the major league level under their belts so it is more difficult to project improvement this season, but after looking at their minor league stats and last years results it can pretty safely be said that they are better hitters than what we have seen so far.

Throw in injuries to Luis Rodriguez and promising shortstop Everth Cabrera and the Padres hitting should see marked improvement as the season goes on.

Only Scott Hairston is hitting far above his career averages for the Padres.

Chris Young is a full ERA point over his career averages. He is healthy, but has not been consistent so far this season. One game pitching a gem and the next getting blown out. He should also improve.

Heath Bell is below his career average, but as a closer he can see a small increase and still close games effectively.

A large percentage of the Padres position players are due to see an increase in batting average and the number two starter is due to see a full point come off his ERA as the season progresses.

In other words, chances are the Padres will get better as the season goes on.


Now for the Dodgers.

Juan Pierre is hitting more than 90 points above his career norms.

Casey Blake is hitting 20 points higher than his career high and 50 points above his career average.

Orlando Hudson is hitting 45 points higher than his career high and 65 points better than his career average.

Brad Ausmus is playing in rarefied air at over 100 points higher than his career average.

Randy Wolf is more than a full point lower than what his career ERA of 4.26.

Jeff Weaver is more than a full point below his career ERA of 4.72.

Jonathan Broxton is more than 1.8 points lower than his career ERA of 2.98.

These key Dodgers players are due for a fall in batting average and a rise in ERA.

Add to that the continuing struggles of Rafael Furcal. After his injury and subsequent back surgery I posted that no regular in baseball had ever returned from the surgery Furcal had done and completed a full season of baseball and that ALL who have had the surgery had significant drops in production when they did come back.

Furcal is 48 points below his career batting average of .286 and is regressing. He may still improve, but no other player who has had the same back surgery has ever completed a full season or hit his career average ever again in their careers.

Only one Dodger starter is more than 40 points below his career averages, Andre Ethier at .250.

In other words, chances are the Dodgers will get worse as the season goes on.

Will the Dodgers get 8.5 games worse?

Or even meet the Padres half way, with the Padres getting 4.5 games better to the Dodgers getting 4.5 games worse?

That is a question for the baseball Gods.

My point was to show that there is a plausible argument for why the Padres CAN catch the Dodgers and win the NL West.

I have had my say. Now what do you think?

Padres Win, Padres Win, Padres Win

Wednesday April 29, 2009

The San Diego Padres won 4-3 over the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field in Denver last night.

Chad Gaudin made his first start as a Padre and gave up just 3 hits while walking 4 over 5 shutout innings in his debut.

The Padres staked Gaudin to a 2 run lead in the third inning on a Scott Hairston 2 run blast to LF, but the bullpen was unable to hold the lead with Edward Mujica giving up one run in the 6th on a 2 out home run to Rockies LF Sean Smith and Luke Gregerson giving up two runs in the 7th on 4 straight singles.

The Padres came back in the top of the 9th with a leadoff triple by catcher Nick Hundley and a single by Luis Rodriguez.

Heath Bell came in for the bottom of the 9th inning and shut the Rockies down for his major league leading 8th save.

This win highlighted what has become the hallmark of the Padres team so far this season, a never say die attitude. In my opinion, having so many people write them off prior to the season has put a chip on the Padres players collective shoulders and they have fought back in just about every game.

Last night's win was the Padres 5th coming from behind late in the game and their 6th win in 8 one run games. The Padres lead the NL in wins in one run games so far this season.

With this win the Padres are 11-9 on the season and two games back of the NL West division leading Los Angeles Dodgers.

To be in the hunt after 20 games with 3 starters, 2 relievers and 2 bench players on the DL already is a hopeful sign in the hearts and minds of Padres fans everywhere.

In a side note, Adrian Gonzalez got his first major league stolen base in the top of the 6th inning.

I have had my say. Now what do you think?

Changes and Chances in the Wild, Wild NL West

Tuesday January 6, 2009

(Note: Yes I know it’s the 17th. This post turned out to be a whale of a project on limited time and then I took a 9 day trip to 4 different countries and left this sitting on my desktop computer at home. I am STILL not completely finished, so I am going to post what I have and update it as I can. Bear with me please. I promise it will be done before pitchers and catcher report. lol)

On one of my favorite message boards, Friar Nation, a question was posed about what changes were made by each of the NL West teams in the off season and what effect would that have on the teams chance at winning the division.

Once I started my answer, I realized it was a little longer and more involved than a post on a message board should be so I decided to take a crack at it here.

I have not included players signed to minor league deals unless they are expected to crack the 25 man roster and make a substantial contribution. In other words Rule V draftees and guys that are not expected to come in and contribute are not included with the exception of the Padres who may just play ALL of their minor league signings and Rule V draftees.

Here goes.

Arizona

Lost
- LHP Randy Johnson. 30 starts 11 wins 184.1 IP
- RHP Connor Robertson 27 yr old Rookie reliever traded to Mets for Schoeneweis
- SS/2B David Eckstein

Free Agents not expected to be resigned
- Reliever Juan Cruz. 2.61 ERA with 8 holds in 57 appearances
- OF Adam Dunn. 8 hr and 26 rbi in 144 abs, roughly 1/4 of a season
- Starting 2B Orlando Hudson. Hit team leading .305 and played solid D
- Closer/Reliever Brandon Lyon. Team leading 26 saves in 61 appearances

Additions
- 2B Felipe Lopez. 28 yr old hit .385/.426/.538 in limited duty w/the Cardinals
- LH Reliever Scott Schoeneweis. Lefty specialist 3.34 era in 56 appearances for Mets
- Brought back Tony Clark

What this means to their chances to win the NL West
30 starts, 130 relief appearances, and 2 everyday position players left.
50-60 Relief appearances were added and 1 everyday position player.
Max Sherzer will be expected to fill the shoes of future HOF in starts, innings and wins. Those are HUGE shoes to fill for a 24 year old with just 7 starts and no wins to his credit.

With Eric Byrnes still iffy for opening day and a lot of holes still left to fill, the Diamondbacks figure to regress from their 82 wins season in 2008 if they don’t make more moves this off season.


Colorado

Lost
- Of Matt Holliday. .321/.409/.538/.947 with 25 HR & 88 RBI
- Closer Brian Fuentes 30 saves with a 2.73 ERA in 67 appearances
- 2B Jayson Nix Little Used Backup
- OF Willy Taveras Speedy CF Hit .251/.308 with 68 SB in 479 AB
- RP Matt Herges - 5.04 ERA in 58 appearances (FA signed with Indians)
- RP Luis Vizcaino 46 IP and 5.28 in 43 appearances

Free Agents not expected to be resigned
- SP Livan Hernandez - 13 wins in 31 starts w/ 6.05 ERA for Rockies & Twins in 2008.
- C Adam Melhuse. A little used backup. Just 15 games played between Rockies & Rangers in 2008.

Additions
- LH reliever Alan Embree Aging LH specialist had 4.96 era in 70 appearances for A's
- OF Carlos Gonzalez 23 yr old hit .242/.273/.361 in 330 abs his first season at ML for A's. Expected to take the place of Willy Taveras in CF
- RH Starter Greg Smith 24 yr old had 7 wins & 4.16 era in 190 IP for A's. Had Elbow surgery in offseason.
- Closer/Reliever Huston Street 18 saves & 3.73 era in 70 appearances for A's

What this means to their chances to win the NL West
The Rockies lost a perennial MVP candidate in Holliday and one of the best closers in baseball in Fuentes and a true leadoff hitter in Taveras.
31 starts, 168 relief appearances, 25 hrs, 30 saves, and 68 stolen bases gone.
30 starts, 60-70 relief appearances, 4-5 hrs, 4-5 sb, and 18 saves added.
Taveras had a poor season in 2008, but just one year prior he had hit .320/.367
Gonzalez will fill in ably on defense and has more pop in his bat, but will not be able to match the speed or batting average of Taveras.
Huston Street is a reasonable replacement for Fuentes or a good setup man for Corpas.
Smith was the big cog in the trade for Holliday and he is a question mark for 2009 due to elbow surgery in late October. If he heals successfully and if he can continue to progress, he can be a good addition to the Rockies rotation. IF.
Helton is also ailing, he had back surgery September 30th, and his production has seen a marked decline in recent years.
The addition of Jason Marquis would be a wash with Hernandez. A durable, but not good, starting pitcher.

All in All the Rockies have taken a step backwards and are now relying on unproven and in the case of Smith, injured young players to take the place of veterans. A repeat of the 74 win 2008 season is probable if they keep their current lineup.


Los Angeles

Lost
- RH SP/RP Chan Ho Park
- SP Greg Maddux
- SP Brad Penny
- RP Scott Proctor
- OF Andruw Jones

Free Agents not expected to be resigned
- LH RP Joe Beimel
- C Gary Bennett
- SS Angel Berroa
- 3B/1B Nomar Garciaparra
- SP Jason Johnson
- 2B Jeff Kent
- SP Derek Lowe (FA signed with Atlanta)
- Util Pablo Ozuna (FA signed with Philadelphia?)
- Closer Takashi Saito (FA signed with Boston)
- Pinch Hitter Mark Sweeney

Additions
- 2B Mark Loretta
- SP/RP Claudio Vargas
- RP Guillermo Mota

Free agent but who knows what will happen
- OF Manny Ramirez

What this means to their chances to win the NL West
The Dodgers have lost more than half of their relief appearances, more than half of their saves, more than half of their starts, and 3 players with at least some starts at key positions in 2008

By resigning Blake and Furcal, have made splashes in the FA market but not really improved their team. No one has played a full season in the ML after having the surgery Furcal had, so he will again be a question mark health wise all season and Blake has always been considered a utility man, not an everyday 3B.

Mark Loretta is a solid utility man and probably a much better role model for young prospects to learn from in 2009, but certainly will not provide the offense of future HOF Jeff Kent.

Claudio Vargas is a swing man that may be expected to start in a depleted Dodger pitching staff.

If the Dodgers sign Manny Ramirez they can once again be named as the favorites in the NL West. His offensive production is enough to improve the entire lineup. He gives opposing teams a bat to fear in the middle of the lineup and the batters hitting in front of and immediately behind him will see better pitches to hit, improving everyone’s production.

If they don’t sign Manny, their suspect offense and thoroughly depleted pitching will see them make a huge step backwards towards the pack in 2009.


San Diego

Lost
- C Josh Bard Signed with BOS ($1.6 mil, 1 year)
- C Michael Barrett Signed with TOR (minor league deal)
- RP Kevin Cameron Signed with OAK (minor league deal)
- SP Enrique Gonzalez Signed with BOS (minor league deal)
- SS Khalil Greene Traded to St Louis
- RP/SP Clay Hensley Signed with HOU (minor league deal)
- OF Paul McAnulty Signed with BOS (minor league deal)
- 2B Tadihito Iguchi

Free Agents not expected to be resigned
- OF Chip Ambres
- SP Shawn Estes Signed with the LA Dodgers (minor league deal)
- SP Charlie Haeger
- Closer Trevor Hoffman Signed with Milwaukee

Additions
- 2B David Eckstein -

3 signed to minor league deals and added to 40 man roster
RP Chris Britton
RP Mark Worrell
2B Travis Denker – picked up on waivers from Giants

2 picked up in Rule V draft and added to 40 man roster
RP Ivan Nova
2B Everth Cabrera

4 signed to minor league deal and invited to Spring Training
SP/RP Kevin Correia
C Eliezer Alonzo
Util Chris Burke
SP Mark Prior

What this means to their chances to win the NL West
30 Saves, 142 relief appearances, and 3 starting position players gone.
Added an unknown number of relief appearances from players with little or no ML experience, a swing man in Correia, and a starting 2B.

Eckstein will start at 2B, give them a legitimate #2 hitter and allow the Padres to give Antonelli more time to play everyday at AAA and get his hitting stroke back. LRod will give the Padres a better batting average with average defense at SS. They will miss the power bat of Greene, but not his lack of clutch hitting.

The loss of Hoffman will hurt the Padres in the short run. While Bell is a competent reliever, he is no Hoffman and 1st year closers, regardless of their ML experience, average nearly 20% lower save percentage than Hoffman’s 2008 save percentage. In the long term it may free up money to make a trade at the deadline, maybe including Giles, that will set up the team for years to come at other positions.

The Padres probably will not compete in the NL West, but they will improve. Just an improvement from MLB record injuries in 2008 to MLB average injuries in 2009 will give them a huge boost.

I can see them winning 74-78 games in 2009 and climbing out of the cellar.

San Francisco

Lost
C Eliezer Alfonzo C
SP/RP Kevin Correia
RP Brad Hennessey

Free Agents not expected to be resigned
- 1B Rich Aurilia
- SS Omar Vizquel
- RP Tyler Walker Signed with SEA

Additions
- RP Jeremy Affeldt
- RP Bob Howry
- SP Randy Johnson
- SS Edgar Renteria

What this means to their chances to win the NL West
The Giants lost little; a swing man, a reliever, a backup corner infielder and an aging SS.
They have added a future HOF pitcher, a good and slightly less aged SS and 2 good relievers.

The offense of the Giants while still suspect is better and they will offer arguably the best rotation in baseball and an improved bullpen in 2009.

An improvement is probable over their 72 win campaign in 2008. 80-84?


Closing Thoughts
As bad as the Giants were last year, the Padres picked up 3 castaways from their trash heap, Alonzo who got popped for steroids and spent 50 days on suspension in 2008, Correia who is returning from injury in 2008 and Travis Denker who no one can really figure out why he was available on the waiver wire.

As of today 2 teams are in definite decline for 2009, 2 will improve (the Padres have no where to go but up) and the Dodgers are in limbo waiting on Manny.

None of the teams in the West have what I would call a World Series caliber team, but then neither did the 2007 Rockies or the 2006 Cardinals.

Without Manny, no team in the West is a prohibitive favorite to even win the West, let alone take a run deep in the playoffs.