Padres GM Byrnes compounds mistakes by extending Quentin for 3 yrs/$30 million

Padres Josh Byrnes compounds earlier mistakes by signing LF Carlos Quentin to a 3 yr/$30 million extension

In the middle of Vicky Santo's stirring comments during the induction speech for her husband Ron here in Cooperstown a member of our front office leans over to me and says, "what is Byrnes thinking"? 

Earlier in the day my wife had pried my phone and tablet from my hands and handed me a camera and her grandfather's Cubs cap. "Its a day to be a fan" she said, so I had no idea what he was talking about.

I had to wait until I got back to the hotel last night to learn that Josh Byrnes had made his third critical mistake regarding Carlos Quentin.

Byrnes' Critical Mistakes

1st - He traded a young Quentin to the White Sox as GM of the Diamondbacks

2nd - He traded two very good prospects (Castro and Hernandez) to the White Sox for an older and injury prone Quentin as the new GM of the Padres

Now, to compound those two huge mistakes, Byrnes gives Carlos Quentin a 3 year $30 million extension with the San Diego Padres.

2013 - $9.5 million

2014 - $9.5 million

2015 - $8.0 million

$3 million buyout of $10 million 2016 option

For a low budget team expected to have a $60-70 million payroll in 2013, Byrnes gives a 3 year deal that will take up 15+ percent of the teams total payroll to:

• a player that is so injury prone that he has not had a season where he started more than 103 games in the field since 2008 
• a player so bad defensively that he has not completed more than 83 games in a season since 2008 & has recorded a -37.7 UZR over that period.
• a player with a .248 batting average since the start of the 2009 season

You also have to remember that Quentin is more expensive than just his salary. Someone else has to play the 60 + games he will miss due to injuries each season and the 180 + innings per season he will be out of games because of his bad defense and you have to pay those players too.

Byrnes' Guarantees

Byrnes has guaranteed that for 60 or more games each of the next 3 seasons the Padres will wonder who will be playing in LF. (Quentin is hurt for 1/3 of each season)

Byrnes has guaranteed that the Padres will have one of, if not THE worst LF defense in the league for 2/3 of each of the next 3 seasons. (Quentin is hurt for 1/3 of each season)


Byrnes has also guaranteed that the Padres have no money to sign any real threats with the bat by tying up more than 15% of the payroll in one player. (You cant be a threat when you are on the DL 1/3 of each season and have to be removed in late innings of games for a defensive replacement.)


Byrnes has guaranteed that the Padres will be saddled with Quentin; an expensive, injury prone, poor hitting, defensive liability for the next 3 seasons because they gave him a full no-trade clause.

Carlos Quentin, Bust

Face it Padres fans, Quentin is a bust so far. He has hit just .217 with a .359 slg since a 6 game hot streak ended on 6/5. This after spending the first 2 full months of the season on the DL. 


At his current pace, IF he is able to play the rest of the season without a trip to the DL, Quentin will hit for a .232 batting average with 16-17 home runs. 


His defense ranks 25th in the league with a .982 fielding percentage and -2 DRS this season and is the worst in MLB since the start of the 2009 season. Even Jesus Guzman has been better in the outfield and that says volumes about Quentin's dearth of skills with the glove.


The question you must ask is what is a player worth that will play 100 games per season and hit .230-.240 with 16-18 home runs while playing horrible defense? 


Regardless of Byrnes attempt at justification for signing him, Quentin is not a threat with the bat and he is not protecting the other Padres players in the lineup because:

• #1 he was on the DL the 1st 2 months of the season 
• #2 he is not hitting for either average or power in the past month and a half.

Now, I understand that no other MLB team wants to give up good prospects for Quentin and with good reason (those enumerated above and fact that any team trading for him would not get a draft pick if he left in FA), but that is no reason for Byrnes to compound his mistakes by hamstringing the team with Quentin for 3 more seasons.


The sandwich pick the Padres would have received for making Quentin a qualifying offer in arbitration and then watching him walk in free agency is likely worth more and will be MUCH cheaper than 3 seasons of Quentin in a Padres uniform.


If you get the idea I don't like this signing you are right. I didn't like the trade that brought Quentin to the Padres in the first place and this just piles stupid on top of stupid.


The only good that may come of this is that the Padres are showing fans a willingness to hold onto players after years having to trade away good players because of payroll considerations during the Moores' divorce.


It may also mean they will be trading or non-tendering Will Venable, who will be eligible for arbitration for the 2nd time in 2013 and due a raise from his current $1.475 million even though his performance continues to lag far behind his potential. Too much money for a backup outfielder.


I have had my say, now what do you think about the Padres extending Carlos Quentin?


Websoulsurfer

Padres Quentin Injures Right Leg - Out 4-6 weeks

San Diego Padres GM Byrnes made a huge, and to the low budget Padres very expensive, mistake in trading for Carlos Quentin.

The prospects he sent to the White Sox notwithstanding, Quentin had averaged only 98 games per season in the field for the White Sox over the past three seasons. Nothing indicated he would be any more healthy his year. In fact, the pattern of being injury prone was in place like a Huge Red Flag and Byrnes simply ignored the warning signs. Byrnes wanted to make up for another huge mistake he made while in Arizona in trading away a then 24 year old Quentin and in doing so compounded his mistake.

Padres Carlos Quentin Injures Right Leg - Out 4-6 Weeks

Now Quentin has injured his right leg and will undergo arthroscopic surgery on Monday. Quentin is expected to miss 4-6 weeks and at the very minimum, the first 2 weeks of the regular season. More likely he will return to the Padres lineup in the last week of April or early May.

To add insult to Quentin's injury, it is to his right leg, the drive leg for a right handed hitter, and will rob him of power all season. Power is the only thing Quentin has to offer to the Padres as he has been the very worst defensive outfielder in major league baseball over the past 3 seasons with a -38.2 UZR.

Those of you who follow me know that I am not a big fan of defensive metrics like UZR unless there is at least 3 years of data to analyze. Looking at just one season of data is totally useless. Well we have three years of Quentin's defensive contributions to base a good determination of his ability in the field on and it says what our eyes have been telling us, he is horrendous with the glove.

Now about what the Padres are paying for Byrnes attempt to redeem his earlier mistake:

• $7.025 million or more than 13% of the overall 2012 Padres payroll
• Two prospects that now rank in the top 20 for the White Sox organization and who will contribute at the major league level in 2012 for the South Siders. (Castro is #4 or #5 depending on the list)

So the bottom line of Byrnes screw up is that Quentin will give the Padres under 100 games of mediocre power and atrocious defense and then Quentin will leave in free agency after the season.

The GM of the team can afford to make mistakes like this when you have a $100+ million payroll, but in San Diego it can be fatal to your hopes of a decent season.

Byrnes hubris in trying to redeem himself for an earlier mistake and Quentin's continuing injury problems may have torpedoed San Diego chances at a .500 season before the season even begins.

I've had my say about Byrnes, Quentin and the San Diego Padres.

Now its your turn. What do you think?

What the Changes in the MLB CBA Really Mean

The Rich Get Richer

Bud Selig and the big market owners at MLB have put a hatchet in the back of the Small and Mid market teams with this new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

The small market teams have been all but marginalized. They will no longer have any opportunity to compete under the new rules.

Changes in Arbitration Eligibility Rules

Players with less than three years of major league service will now have to have 2 years 86 days of service and be in the top 20% of the league in production. (Previously it was 17%)

All but the largest market teams will now hold their best prospects back to after the All Star break instead of early June to ensure they don’t get 86 days in that year.

Changes in Free Agency Compensation

Since they no longer lose a draft pick the rich will get richer. The Yankees, Red Sox, etc… can now sign Free Agents without losing anything unless the other team makes a $12 million offer to the FA.

It’s a crock. The old system didn’t work, but this is worse. Now small market teams are strictly farm clubs for the big market teams.

It marks the end of Tampa Bay’s ability to compete in the AL East. Once their current crop of players and prospects reach FA they will never compete again. IT ends ANY small markets teams possibility of contending. Under the old system at least you got something when you could no longer afford a free agent. Now you get nothing. Selig said bend over small market teams and take it like a Sandusky victim.

Changes in First Year Draft

More of the rich get ting richer.

Now teams that were horrible last year can no longer afford to pay big money for a great prospect (see Gerrit Cole) or they risk not being able to draft many players or have to pay a tax they can ill afford to pay for going over the line. 

The Yankees, Red Sox, etc... can afford to pay a luxury tax, but if a team like the Pirates or the Rays want to pay big money for a couple of exceptional prospects, they risk not being to sign other prospects prospects down the line.

Selig has finally turned all small market teams into nothing more than glorified farm teams for the Yankees and the Red Sox.

Congratulations Bud. You have finally killed competition in the sport completely.

RIP MLB.  

Out in Left Field

Closers that Blow Saves Suck

The Definition of a Great Closer:

To be considered the best closer in the game of baseball
you need to do one simple thing, 

Save the highest percentage of games.

It doesn't matter what the velocity is on your fastball.
It doesn't matter how many guys you strike out per nine innings.
It doesnt matter what your ERA or SIERA was.
It doesn't matter what your WHIP or FIP or WAR  was.

The ONLY thing that matters 
is that when you team has a lead in the 8th or 9th inning
that you keep the other team from scoring MORE runs than your lead
with the highest regularity.

THAT is the job of a closer.

With that in mind:
If you think Craig Kimbrel was Closer of the Year in the NL , you are a flipping idiot.

That piece of shit blew 8 games out of 54 attempts and 3 of his final 6 opportunities. Kimbrel is the singular reason his team, the Atlanta Braves, were not in the playoffs. 85% saves is simply not worth being in the conversation for NL Closer of the Year.

Marmol and Cordero are not even worth mentioning they were so bad at their job.

If you think  ANYONE besides
Axford - 96%,
Putz - 92%,
Bell  - 90%, or
Storen - 90%
is even in the conversation for best closer you are a moron. Plain and simple.

Those guys had the highest % of saves in the NL.

THAT singular thing is what makes them the best of 2011.

So bring it bitches. I want to hear what all you Kimbrel kiss asses have to say.

Out In Left Field

Padres return for Adams or Bell?

Saturday July 16, 2011

Greetings from beautiful Port Charlotte Florida, home of the Stone Crabs.

I have spent the past two days watching the Treshers with several Padres scouts & the Phillies general manager also in attendance. Taking a look at the players the Padres would likely be getting in return for Heath Bell (or Mike Adams) and Ryan Ludwick if Hoyer & Amaro pull the trigger on a trade.

The scuttlebutt is that if the Padres are willing to pick up a major portion, maybe as much as $4 million, of Bell and Ludwick's $7 million in combined remaining salaries this season that the Padres will receive one of the following top prospects -Brody Colvin, Julio Rodriguez or Trevor May - and 2-3 other players.that would include one of Jonathan Singleton or Sebastian Valle and at least one other lower level prospect.

Sounds like a huge haul and it is, but the Padres would be sending one of, if not THE, best closers in baseball and a valuable RHB that would hit much better than his current .240 in Citizens Bank Park along with a huge chunk of cash. When you consider the value of a World Series run, it is an entirely reasonable trade.

Monday and Tuesday of next week I will be spending time in Myrtle Beach before flying to Texas for the weekend. Hope to get to see starting pitchers Robbie Ross or Miguel De Los Santos and OF Travis Adair play for the Pelicans. Another player I had wanted to see, Mike Olt, is on the DL. They are all potential pieces in a trade for Bell or Adams by the Rangers.

Once I get to Frisco I am hoping to see Robbie Erlin pitch. He is the piece I would most like to see coming back the Padres way in a trade for Bell from the Rangers system.

I am afraid that by the time I get to Frisco the Padres will have pulled the trigger on a trade, possibly two.

Even if the trades are made prior to my getting to Texas its going to be a busy, exciting week of minor league baseball.

9th game & its time for Padres to sit Hawpe

Monday April 11, 2011

On the day I paid $4.11 for gas, I came to the realization watching Hawpe fail miserably to get a hit in the 1st inning of the Padres vs Reds that even though its only the 9th game of the season, its time for the Padres to sit Brad Hawpe.

His herky jerky movements at the plate testify to a lack of confidence that is making it impossible for him to hit consistently. If you watch video from earlier in his career when he was hitting decently, he had much less movement of his bat and body at the plate. Now he looks like he is dancing up there never coming set before swinging the bat.

So its time he took a seat and Black brought in someone else to play. 1B. Cantu is not an improvement or he would already be manning 1B. Maybe its time to give Rizzo or Clark a shot. They can't do much worse than .174

1 year and 341,700 Frequent Flyer Miles Later

March 27, 2011

It has been an interesting, fast paced and hectic year in the Web Soulsurfer household.

I have logged 341,700 frequent flyer miles and more than 200 days away from home since March 31st of 2010.

I have met many incredible people, worked with some great clients and charities and visited some wonderful places. I have seen baseball games in 7 countries (actually 6 since Puerto Rico is a territory of the US, but don't tell them that).

But, and its a big but, I am exhausted and I miss my wife and home. Obviously I have not posted near as much on this blog and on the boards I have been so active on in the past.

I am nearing 50 (AARP is on my tail to sign up by my birthday in June) and I need to slow down and enjoy my life with my devoted and loving wife instead of jetting around the country and living in hotel rooms. Towards that end I have sold my interest in the sports/charity marketing business I have been involved with and will be relocating to new digs in a new city within the next month.

While I will be attending the Padres opening series of the season in St Louis, for the first time in 26 years I will likely not be able to make the Padres home opener as I take care of the last of my duties and transfer the company over to the new teams my (ex)business partner has hired to fill my duties.

Yes they are replacing me with two teams of 2 people each. Tells you how much work I have been doing when they have to bring in two teams to take my place.

There will still be a Websoulsurfer the blog and I may even post more often as I did in years past, but it will be from afar as I will be living in a AAA city of the West.

I do hope you will continue to read the blog and maybe even enjoy it more as it starts to be a more regular part of my life.

Just for shits and grins I may just publish the many (about 40) articles I have started (and never completed) writing in airports and hotel rooms over the past year even though they are dated and sometimes just plain wrong. But then being wrong never stopped me from posting before...

Best regards,

- Web

Your 2011 San Diego Padres Opening Day Edition - (Updated 3/28)

March 27, 2011

The San Diego Padres Roster to OPEN the 2011 season

Update 3/28 - Sorry this took so long, but spent morning on plane (what, me on a plane) and then had game to attend.

In an anticipated move, the Padres traded minor league starter Erik Davis to the Washington Nationals for utility man Alberto Gonzale.

To make room for Gonzalez, Everth Cabrera was optioned to AAA Tucson.

The Padres decided they prefer to have Aaron Cunningham play every day instead of as a 5th outfielder so Cedric hunter, who had a phenomenal spring, got the call to fill that spot.

Wade LeBlanc was optioned to minor league camp and will make two starts start there in preparation for 4/12 call up to face Reds as Padres #5 starter.

Mat Latos, Eric Patterson, Jarrett Hoffpauir, Joe Thatcher and Kyle Blanks were placed on the 15 day DL.  Latos, Patterson and Hoffpauir are eligible to return 4/6. Thatcher and Blanks when healthy.

Corey Luebke will fill the left handed specialist/long reliever spot in the bullpen until Thatcher returns or LeBlanc is called up. (Whichever comes first)

Ernesto Frieri and Luis Perdomo also will make the staff, at least until Latos, Thatcher come off DL and LeBlanc is called up to make his 4/12 start.

Dustin Moseley will get the start(s) in Latos absence.

This is a preliminary roster depending on if the Padres make a last minute trade. The roster WILL change within 10 days of opening day as LeBlanc will move from being the lefty out of the pen to the starting rotation for a game against the Reds on April 12th. Likely changes will be made on the 7th or 8th of April.

Starting 8

1B – Brad Hawpe

2B – Orlando Hudson

3b – Chase Headley

SS – Jason Bartlett

LF – Ryan Ludwick

CF – Cameron Maybin

RF – Will Venable

C – Nick Hundley

Bench

OF – Chris Denorfia

OF/Util – Aaron Cunningham – (Patterson will start season on DL)

MI – Everth Cabrera  (3/28- Alberto Gonzalez)

Util – Jorge Cantu

MI - Jarrett Hoffpauir (3/28- Placed on DL)

C – Rob Johnson

Batting Order on Opening Day

Facing Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals

Leading off – Will Venable (LHB) - RF

Batting 2^nd – Jason Bartlett (RHB)– SS

Batting 3^rd – Orlando Hudson (SW) – 2B

Batting 4^th – Brad Hawpe (LHB) – 1B

Batting 5^th – Ryan Ludwick (RHB)– LF (moving back to his natural position)

Batting 6^th – Chase Headley (SW) – 3B

Batting 7^th - Nick Hundley (RHB) – C

Batting 8^th – Cameron Maybin (RHB) – CF

4^th and 5^th will swap depending on RHP or LHP

Starting Rotation

Tim Stauffer - RHP

Aaron Harang - RHP

Clayton Richard - LHP

Mat Latos - RHP (3/28 - Placed on DL retroactive to 3/22)

Wade LeBlanc - RHP (may start in bullpen as his first start will be April 12th vs Reds)
(3/28 - Leblanc optioned to minor league camp until 4/12 start)

Bullpen

Cl  - Heath Bell - RHP

SU - Mike Adams - RHP

SU - Luke Gregerson - RHP

MR - Pat Neshek - RHP

MR - Chad Qualls - RHP

LR - Dustin Moseley - RHP - (Moseley will get start(s) in Latos absence)
LR - Corey Luebke - LHP
LR - Luis Perdomo - RHP
MR - Ernesto Frieri - RHP

Joe Thatcher will start the season on the DL

Ernesto Frieri has options so he will start the season in AAA

The Padres will start the season with only 11 pitchers until LeBlanc has to prepare for his start or about April 8th. Likely Thatcher will come off the DL if he is ready and Cunningham or Hoffpauir would be sent down. If not Frieri or southpaw Luebke could be called up.

Signing Albert Pujols @ 10 yrs/$300 million = Suicide: Baseball Style

Wednesday February 15, 2011

Signing Albert Pujols to a $30 million per year contract
would be franchise suicide for the St Louis Cardinals.

Albert Pujols vs San Diego Padres

If the the St Louis Cardinals give in to Pujols (and many the fans and members of the media) demands for $30 million and 10 seasons, they will be effectively committing franchise suicide.

Why? Let me enumerate:
#1 - Even though he is Pujols, the best player in baseball, he is still human. His performance WILL decline. Possibly every year from this point forward, but certainly dramatically before a 10 year contract even reaches its half way point.

Will he be worth even 10 million per season when he is hitting 50-60 points lower and less than half the home runs at ages 37- 42? That was pretty close to the average drop from the peak performance ages of 26-28 prior to the steroid era.Yes .280-.290 with 15-20 hrs is still valuable, but 6 years of that production for $30 million per season? That would cripple even the Yankees.

#2 - Since the advent of free agency, no team has won the world series while having one player make 15% or more or its payroll. No team has MADE it to the World Series with one player making 20% or more of its payroll.

The Cardinals largest payroll ever was $99 million in 2008 and it was $94 million in 2010. At a payroll equaling their largest in franchise history, Pujols contract would account for over 30% per season. Even if they increased payrol by an astonishing 25% from 2010 levels to $117.5 million, Pujols salary would make account for 25.5% of the payroll with Halliday making up an additional 14.5%. So even with a 25% bump in total payroll, that is 40% in TWO players.

That is simply untenable. It would retard their ability to sign enough talent (internal - arbitration eligible, and external - free agents) to make them competitive AND cripple their ability to sign top prospects in the draft & international free agency. The Cardinals simply would not have the payroll flexibility to go out and get free agents to fill holes, sign their other good players to long term deals or build their farm system through the draft & international free agent signings.

#3 - Players get hurt. Even Albert Pujols gets hurt. See 2006 and 2008. As they get older, players get hurt more often.

When you are paying one player 20-30% of your total payroll you cannot afford for them to get hurt. You simply cannot afford to keep a good backup on the roster, so some replacement level schmuck will be taking the field if your superstar is out with an injury.

Holliday's $17 million contract was at the fringes of what a team like St Louis can afford and still stay competitive. If they sign Pujols to a $30 million per year contract regardless of length, they will be committing $47 million per season to 2 players. Nearly 50% of total payroll at 2010 levels or 40% IF they bump total payroll up by 25%. And that is a HUGE IF..

As it is the Cardinals have $33 million committed to those two in 2011. Another $49+ million is committed to 7 members of the 12 man pitching staff in 2011. $82 million overall for 9 players out of a projected $104 million payroll in 2011..

As it is they have no room for error. No room for injuries. No room for an off year. Everyone must compete at their peak and stay healthy for the Cardinals to have any hope of competing in the NL Central.

In 2012 the Cardinals currently have $63.3 committed to 7 players. Add Pujols is at $30 million and  they are over their 2010 payroll before putting another player on the field.

At a $100 million payroll in 2012, Cardinals would only have about $6.67 million to spend on 17 players. That is just slightly less than the current major league minimum. 17*$410k = $6.970 million


Even IF they bump the payroll 25%, they still would only have $23.67 million to sign 17 players. Hardly a way to build a powerhouse club worthy of having an Albert Pujols on it.

Open Letter to BBWAA Writers Voting for Hall of Fame Induction

Thursday December 30, 2010

This started as a response to ESPN's Jim Caples article on Baseball Hall of Fame voting rules.

In his article Caples says that steroids were not against the rules of baseball so he is going to vote for people that used steroids. Caples is completely wrong about that and that worries me. How many otyher baseball writers are unaware of the facts on steroid rules in baseball.

The rest of this post is as I wrote it to Caples:

Steroids were expressly against the official rules in major league baseball since 1991 and implicitly since 1971. That is something you SHOULD know as a baseball writer and a voter for the the Baseball Hall of Fame. That you don't worries me.

You say you will be voting for people that knowingly broke express rules forbidding the use of anabolic steroids and other banned substances and you are using the specious argument that the use was not against the rules.

In 1971 Bowie Kuhn put in place a rule that said baseball personnel must comply with all federal and state statutes and steroid possession and use has been a crime without a prescription since the 1960's.

In 1991 Fay Vincent prohibited steroid use and possession specifically and in 1997 Bud Selig spelled it out the prohibition against steroid use as well.

What they didnt have was drug testing. So unless they caught a player in possession of Steroids, there was little they could do to punish them. The USE and POSSESSION of steroids was still prohibited, so to say there were no rules prohibiting steroid use is just plain false.

Those men that used steroids like Palmiero, McGwire, Clemens & Bonds knowingly broke the rules of the game and they do not meet the character rules for voting for the Baseball Hall of Fame. They do not deserve to be enshrined in Cooperstown regardless of their performance on the field because they failed to play by the rules.

Period.

If you will sleep better at night by lying to yourself and the public, so be it, but the facts are the facts.

As a journalist you should really do more research into the facts of the case before you cause permanent harm to the game of baseball and the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Websoulsurfer's Picks - 2010 BBA Walter Johnson NL Pitcher of the Year Award Award

Thursday October 21, 2010

2010 BBA Walter Johnson NL Pitcher of the Year Award Award


This award was a no brainer for me.

Roy "Doc" Halladay of the Philadelphia Phillies in a landslide.

Even before his no hitter in playoffs he has been dominant for the Phillies this season.

Halladay racked up an NL Leading 21 wins, with 9 of his 33 starts resulting in complete games. Only three TEAMS other than the Phillies had more complete games thrown. He also had a MLB leading 4 shutouts.

His 2.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 219 SO were 2nd best among NL pitchers with 30 starts (2nd in ERA to the Cardinals Adam Wainwright, in WHIP to teammate Roy Oswalt, and in SO to the Giant's Tim Lincecum). And he walked the fewest batters per 9 innings at an astounding 1.08 BB/9. That is nearly HALF as many as the next nearest player at 2.04.

In the advanced stats he led the NL in xFIP (a fielding independent pitching stat) with a 2.92! His WAR (Wins Above Replacement) was an unconscious 6.6!

In a word Halladay was DOMINANT! No one else even came close.

Since they ask me to give both a 2nd and third place finisher, I will list the two unlucky saps who finished behind Halladay. Let me start by saying that I dont even consider pitchers with less than 30 starts.

2nd - Adam Wainwright - He faded down the stretch but still managed 20 wins and a 2.42 ERA as well as a 6.1 WAR and 3.15 xFIP. A VERY nice season. Just no where near as dominant as Halladay

3rd - Mat Latos - On the basis of his MLB record 15 games with 2 runs or less given up and 3.36 xFIP.

Do you find yourself not caring much about the playoffs?

Yeah. I am watching the games. But I just don't have the enthusiasm for playoff baseball that I had in years past.

Is it the fact that my team isn't there? No. The Padres have only been to the playoffs a handful of times since I became a season ticket holder.

Is it that the games are mostly teams I have no real emotional tie with for good or bad? No. I hate the Yankees. I dislike the Giants. I admire the Phillies. It would even be nice to see Cox go out with a WS run.

But I still watch the playoff games with a lackadaisical attitude.

I just don't care all that much.

So why?

I think it was the Padres complete collapse down the stretch. I think the players on the team I am a rabid fan of not seeming to care down the stretch rubbed off on me and now I don't care much about these playoff games one way or another. 

I sure hope I get some of my passion for baseball back by the World Series.

Looking Ahead - Your 2011 Padres

Tuesday October 5th, 2010

The 2010 season is over and all we have left as Padres fans is to look forward to 2011.

So lets set the table.

The Ownership Situation -

With the Moores divorce nearing a final resolution after more than 2 years and with Moorad's group near 50% ownership, the Padres in 2011 will have both a solid core of good young players and more money for payroll to work with.

What we can be fairly certain of -

The Padres will pick up his ridiculously low option and Adrian Gonzalez will be the central figure in the 2011 Padres lineup. No, the Padres are not going to trade Gonzalez in the offseason. He is too good and too cheap to trade. Gonzalez back at 1B for the Padres in 2011.

Kevin Correia will be a FA at the end of the season and will not be back as a starter. He has struggled since his brothers death and likely needs a change of scenery from his home town San Diego.

The Hairston boys were a nice story and Jerry Jr had a decent season before the injury in late August, but at $2 million plus each its unlikely that the Padres sign either for 2011.

Tejada is a FA and likely won't be back unless he is willing to take a huge cut in pay from the $5 million he earned in 2010 AND agrees to platoon with Cabrera. I don't see Tejada accepting a $1-$2 million contract or being a bit player and .269/.312 is not worth much more than $1 million , so he is gone.

The Padres will not pick up the $8.5 million option on Chris Young. They may decline the option and still resign him for a lower price. Hoyer said yesterday that he would like to see Young back with Padres in 2011.

Matt Stairs will be coaching hockey where he belongs in 2011. 

Latos will be back and will top the starting rotation. At 23 he is arguably the best young pitcher in baseball.

The Starting pitching led by Latos & Richard and the bullpen with nearly everone back will still be a force to be reckoned with.

There are ALOT of good young players under team control for cheap in 2011.

Bell, Adams, Mujica and Ludwick will be looking at big raises in arbitration for the 2011 season.

The question marks are -

• Are the Padres going to pick up the options on Garland and Torrealba?
• Will they resign Eckstein?
• Will Bell be back at the more than $7 million he will command in final year of arbitration?
• Will the Padres invite Ludwick back for his final year of arbitration if it means a raise over the $5.45 million he is earning this year?
• Will Padres pickup the option of Chris Young? Or resign him at a lower price?
• An even more important question is will the Padres be players in the free agent market?

To me the Padres picking up Garlands $6.75 million option should be a no brainer. He was 14-12 with a 3.47 ERA over 200.0 IP. The team went 18-15 in games he started. On the FA market I don't see a better pitcher for less money.

Remember though, Garland can opt out of the contract, too. Its not just the Padres choice. If he wants more money, he can leave. Still I think he is back in a Padres uniform in 2011.

Torrealba is a tougher choice. He has been nothing short of great for Padres this season. Hitting .271 while handling the young pitching staff incredibly well, being a mentor for Nick Hundley and throwing in awesome defense. But, and its a big but, his contract calls for a $3.5 million salary in 2011. That is a lot of money for a platoon catcher.

The Padres don't have a great catching prospect knocking on the door, with Stewart and Ryan being the only real candidates, so in my eye the Padres pick up Torrealba's option.

The other hole in the Padres lineup in 2011 is middle infield. While I except the Padres to resign Eckstein, I don't expect Tejada to be back. Everth Cabrera is still well thought of in the organization and Tejada will likely price himself out of the Padres picture. That is unless he is willing to take an Eckstein-like contract.

The top 2B and SS prospects in the system fall short of being ML ready.


Ludwick will likely NOT be back. He hit .211 as a Padre with less power than Eckstein. .631 OPS in RF? As an arbitration eligible player he is looking at a raise over his $5.45 million salary in 2010 and that just isn't going to happen with the Padres.

Barring any free agent acquisitions or trades, the lineup will likely be -

Starting 8
1B - Adrian Gonzalez - $5.5 million
2B - David Eckstein - $1 million
SS - Everth Cabrera - $430k
3B - Chase Headley - $430k
LF - Aaron Cunningham - $430k
CF - Chris Denorfia - This is a platoon position at this point. $430k
RF - Will Venable  - $430k  (or Ryan Ludwick if cheap enough)
C  - Nick Hundley - $430k

Bench -
Yorvit Torrealba - $3.5 million
Venable - IF Ludwick returns - $430K
Gwynn - If Ludwick DOESN'T return - $430k
Kyle Blanks - LF/RF/1B - $430k
Utilty Player - ???

Starting Rotation -
RHP - Mat Latos - $430k
RHP - Jon Garland - $6.75 million
LHP - Clayton Richard - $430k
RHP - Tim Stauffer - $430k
LHP - Wade LeBlanc - $430k

Bullpen
CL - Heath Bell - Due a huge raise in arbitration - $7-8 million
RH - Mike Adams - Due a huge raise in arbitration - $2.5-3.5 million
RH - Luke Gregerson - $430k
RH - Edward Mujica - $1 million
RH - Ryan Webb - $430k
LH - Joe Thatcher - $430k
AND
RH - Ernesto Frieri $430k (or)
LH - Aaron Poreda or Cesar Ramos

That lineup puts the Padres salaries at just under $40 million in 2011 or about the same as 2010.

Which begs the question, what other moves can the Padres make?

The Padres can resign Ludwick.
Ludwick will be in his last year of arbitration eligibility and will be looking at a raise over the $5.45 million he made in 2010, but his .251 with 17 home runs is really no better than the Padres could expect from Venable or Blanks. He won't be back if he expects to even make as much as 2010.

The Padres can go after Carl Crawford
The 28 year old Crawford is really the only free agent outfielder worth making a run at. He will be looking at a long term contract worth $12-15 million/year. A little rich for the Padres blood. He will probably end up being a Yankee or a Red Sox.

The Padres can go after a FA pitcher.
Cliff Lee, Ted Lilly, & Brandon Webb are all names that will be mentioned often. All will be asking for $10 million plus with Lee likely looking at $16 plus million per season. Maybe Webb will be willing to take a Padres discount to prove he still has it after missing all of 2010, but I don't see the pitching rich Padres going after any of these guys.

The Padres can trade Heath Bell. 
They could likely get a good young OF prospect for Bell and let Adams or Gregerson take over the closer duties. I don't think that will happen though. Bell will still be a relative bargain in 2011 at $7-8 million.

The Padres could go after a 2B, SS or 3B in free agency or trade.
These are the FA options - with thanks to Cots Baseball Contracts

Second Basemen
Willie Bloomquist CIN
Mark Ellis OAK *
Akinori Iwamura PIT
Jose Lopez SEA *
Kaz Matsui COL
Aaron Miles STL

Shortstops
Alex Gonzalez ATL
Cristian Guzman TEX
J.J. Hardy MIN
Omar Infante ATL *
Cesar Izturis BAL
Derek Jeter NYY
Julio Lugo BAL
Jhonny Peralta DET *
Edgar Renteria SF *
Jose Reyes NYM *
Jimmy Rollins PHI *
Ramon Vazquez HOU

Third Basemen
Garrett Atkins FA
Adrian Beltre BOS *
Jorge Cantu TEX
Eric Chavez OAK *
Pedro Feliz STL
Bill Hall BOS *
Brandon Inge DET
Maicer Izturis LAA
Mike Lowell BOS
Melvin Mora COL
Nick Punto MIN *
Ty Wigginton BAL

The guys with the asterisks have an option for 2011. The rest of them are not a very attractive lot. I don't see a single one that is a big improvement in performance for the Padres, but they would be a big increase in salary.

Guys like Beltre, Reyes, and Rollins will have their options picked up and their salaries would be rich for Padres blood even if they could trade for them. Omar Infante would be the only one that has an affordable salary (by Padres standards) but its highly unlikely Atlanta lets him go.


So there it is.
The Padres 2011 team with a payroll very similar to 2010. Hoyer and Moorad have already said the Padres will increase payroll for 2011. Of course they also said the Padres would spend more money in 2010 and they didn't so take that for what its worth.

As eternally hopeful fans we can always hope that the Padres make a big splash on a good young player like Crawford or make a trade for a promising prospect, but likely this is the team we will see on the field in 2011 with some minor changes and additions.

I have had my say. Now what do you think?

Lee showing not worth what Rangers paid

Thursday August 26, 2010

I caught a lot of flack on the boards for my July 9th post here saying that the Rangers overpaid for Lee. For saying he would not do as well for Texas as he had for Seattle.

This is an I told you so.

Since the trade Lee is 2-5 in 76 innings over 10 starts and has an ERA of 4.50. The Rangers are 3-7 over Lee's 10 starts. In August Lee has been even worse with an ERA around 6.00. Not exactly a world beater that will lead your team to a World Series.

So what happened?

2 things.

• Lee has given up more than twice as many home runs per 9 innings with the Rangers as he did as a Mariner. 9 hr in 10 games vs 5 in 13. Obviously, part of that is due to playing in the Rangers launching pad and parks like Camden Yards.

• Lee depends on making the other team put the ball in play for an out.
  
  The Rangers best infielder by far this season is now a Mariner. Otherwise they are league average or below. Andrus & Kinsler at 0.2 UZR are basically league average and they go down from there to Young at -5.7
  
  The Mariners have a better infield defense.The Mariners have 1B Kotchman,, 3B Lopez, SS Josh Wilson and Jack Wilson and 2B Figgins who combined for a 1.9 UZR over the 1st half of the season.
  
  So some of what used to be outs and DP in Seattle are hits or at least a lack of an out for Texas now. Lee's batting average against is up 16 points.

Unless Lee can significantly turn things around in September or the Rangers infield defense can improve somehow, this may become one of the most lopsided trades in recent memory.

Reasons Dodgers will not win the West - part deux

Thursday May 13, 2010 

 Reasons the Dodgers will not win the NL West part deux

The Dodgers have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games and have been playing well. Manny just came off the DL. Ethier is in the lead in all Triple Crown categories. So maybe some of you are thinking that the Dodgers poor play to begin the year was an aberration. That they are on a winning streak and will soon take the NL West lead back.

As Web would say - Braaaaaaak! Sorry wrong answer. Please Play again.
(Yes. The guy did watch way too many game shows while on the road.)

The very fact that the Dodgers have key offensive players doing so much better than they have in any other season is more of a reason to believe that those players will slump towards their career averages and then the Dodgers will not be able to sustain their current winning ways.

1. Ethier's line - .390/.446/.729/1.175 with 10 hr in 31 games with a BABIP of .391 & an ISO of .339. Look for Ethier's BABIP to drop 60-100 points before seasons end and along with it his batting average, OBP and OPS.  His career ISO is .207 and his best season so far was last year with a .237 ISO and 31 hr, so look for his power numbers to drop drastically as well.
   
2.  Manny's line - .396/.507/.585/1.085 in 17 games with a BABIP of .380 Manny WILL hit .300-.330 for the season, but his batting average will drop 60 - 90 points along with a big drop in his OBP and OPS.
   
   Wait for it...the list of overachieving players on a losing team continues...
   
3. Loney 's line - .326/.361/.474/.835 with a BABIP of .376. His power numbers are right on his career averages, but he has been lucky to the tune of 57 points. Even if this is a career year, his BA and OBP will drop 25-30 points. Its more likely we will see a 40+ point drop.
   
   Web would probably call this "regression towards the mean".
   
4. The Pitching Staff is performing right now about the same pace we expected they would for the year. The noted exceptions are:

• Kurodi will probably see a slight rise in his ERA. There have been a lot of errors committed behind him so his Earned Runs are down, but his Runs Allowed is at almost exactly the same rate we saw from him last season.
  
• Billingsley will likely have a 30 point drop in his 4.85 ERA to closer to his 4.56 xFIP. Still not good pitching from the guy that was supposed to be an ace.

Replacing Randy Wolf and Jon Garland with Vicente Padilla and Charlie Haeger was a failed experiment early. John Ely has pitched well, but when/if Padilla returns what you have seen this season is the real Padilla. Its what the Rangers saw from him in 2007, 2008 and 2009.  The Dodgers have shown they really don't have much depth of pitching.

Other than Sherrill, no one in the pen is doing substantially worse than most people were expecting from them, especially the relievers whose arms were tasked with and taxed by 70 appearances last season.

What does that all end up to mean? The Dodgers current 8-3 win streak is not sustainable. .500 is a good goal for them to shoot for over the course of the season. If the Padres are going to be caught in the NL West, its not going to be by the Dodgers.

- Vic Power

Why are we force fed the Yankees and Red Sox?

Saturday April 10, 2010

I turn on MLB on Fox for the national game and what team do I see? If I turn on ESPN networks what teams will I see most often?

Well the odds are that I will see either the Yankees or the Red Sox or both of them.

Those two teams were seen on national games (Fox, ESPN & TBS) more times last season than any other division in baseball with all their teams combined.

This year they are currently scheduled for more appearances than any other division in baseball this season. NOT including the Opening Day game on ESPN a day before any other team got to play, there are 18 scheduled for the Yankees so far, 18 for the Red Sox of 109 total games.

Of the 7 TBS games currently scheduled, 5 include either the Yankees or Red Sox. 71.4% of the games!

National Broadcast Schedule

Sat, Apr 10	3:10 PM	New York Yankees	Tampa Bay Rays	FOX
Sat, Apr 10	3:10 PM	Seattle Mariners	Texas Rangers	FOX
Sat, Apr 10	3:10 PM	St. Louis Cardinals	Milwaukee Brewers	FOX
Sun, Apr 11	1:40 PM	New York Yankees	Tampa Bay Rays	TBS
Sun, Apr 11	8:05 PM	St. Louis Cardinals	Milwaukee Brewers	ESPN
Mon, Apr 12	4:10 PM	Boston Red Sox	Minnesota Twins	ESPN
Wed, Apr 14	8:15 PM	Houston Astros	St. Louis Cardinals	ESPN2
Sat, Apr 17	4:10 PM	Chicago White Sox	Cleveland Indians	FOX
Sat, Apr 17	4:10 PM	San Francisco Giants	Los Angeles Dodgers	FOX
Sat, Apr 17	4:10 PM	New York Mets	St. Louis Cardinals	FOX
Sun, Apr 18	1:35 PM	Tampa Bay Rays	Boston Red Sox	TBS
Sun, Apr 18	8:05 PM	New York Mets	St. Louis Cardinals	ESPN
Mon, Apr 19	7:10 PM	Chicago Cubs	New York Mets	ESPN
Sat, Apr 24	4:10 PM	Seattle Mariners	Chicago White Sox	FOX
Sat, Apr 24	4:10 PM	New York Yankees	Los Angeles Angels	FOX
Sun, Apr 25	2:10 PM	Chicago Cubs	Milwaukee Brewers	TBS
Sun, Apr 25	8:05 PM	Atlanta Braves	New York Mets	ESPN
Mon, Apr 26	7:10 PM	Los Angeles Dodgers	New York Mets	ESPN
Sat, May 1	3:10 PM	Houston Astros	Atlanta Braves	FOX
Sat, May 1	3:10 PM	New York Mets	Philadelphia Phillies	FOX
Sat, May 1	3:10 PM	Texas Rangers	Seattle Mariners	FOX
Sun, May 2	1:05 PM	Chicago White Sox	New York Yankees	TBS
Sun, May 2	8:05 PM	New York Mets	Philadelphia Phillies	ESPN
Mon, May 3	7:10 PM	Los Angeles Angels	Boston Red Sox	ESPN
Sat, May 8	3:10 PM	Atlanta Braves	Philadelphia Phillies	FOX
Sat, May 8	3:10 PM	New York Yankees	Boston Red Sox	FOX
Sun, May 9	1:35 PM	Atlanta Braves	Philadelphia Phillies	TBS
Sun, May 9	8:05 PM	New York Yankees	Boston Red Sox	ESPN
Mon, May 10	7:05 PM	New York Yankees	Detroit Tigers	ESPN
Sat, May 15	4:10 PM	Seattle Mariners	Tampa Bay Rays	FOX
Sat, May 15	4:10 PM	Philadelphia Phillies	Milwaukee Brewers	FOX
Sat, May 15	4:10 PM	Houston Astros	San Francisco Giants	FOX
Sun, May 16	1:05 PM	Minnesota Twins	New York Yankees	TBS
Sun, May 16	8:05 PM	Philadelphia Phillies	Milwaukee Brewers	ESPN
Mon, May 17	7:05 PM	Boston Red Sox	New York Yankees	ESPN
Sat, May 22	7:10 PM	Boston Red Sox	Philadelphia Phillies	FOX
Sat, May 22	7:10 PM	Chicago Cubs	Texas Rangers	FOX
Sat, May 22	7:10 PM	Detroit Tigers	Los Angeles Dodgers	FOX
Sat, May 22	7:10 PM	New York Yankees	New York Mets	FOX
Sun, May 23	1:35 PM	Boston Red Sox	Philadelphia Phillies	TBS
Sun, May 23	8:05 PM	New York Yankees	New York Mets	ESPN
Mon, May 24	7:10 PM	Boston Red Sox	Tampa Bay Rays	ESPN
Sat, May 29	TBD	Seattle Mariners	Los Angeles Angels	FOX
Sat, May 29	4:10 PM	St. Louis Cardinals	Chicago Cubs	FOX
Sat, May 29	4:10 PM	Texas Rangers	Minnesota Twins	FOX
Sun, May 30	2:20 PM	St. Louis Cardinals	Chicago Cubs	TBS
Sun, May 30	8:05 PM	Texas Rangers	Minnesota Twins	ESPN2
Tue, Jun 1	7:10 PM	Philadelphia Phillies	Atlanta Braves	ESPN
Sat, Jun 5	4:10 PM	Los Angeles Angels	Seattle Mariners	FOX
Sat, Jun 5	4:10 PM	Florida Marlins	New York Mets	FOX
Sat, Jun 5	4:10 PM	Milwaukee Brewers	St. Louis Cardinals	FOX
Mon, Jun 7	7:05 PM	Boston Red Sox	Cleveland Indians	ESPN
Sat, Jun 12	4:10 PM	Chicago White Sox	Chicago Cubs	FOX
Sat, Jun 12	4:10 PM	Philadelphia Phillies	Boston Red Sox	FOX
Mon, Jun 14	8:15 PM	Seattle Mariners	St. Louis Cardinals	ESPN
Sat, Jun 19	4:10 PM	Los Angeles Dodgers	Boston Red Sox	FOX
Sat, Jun 19	4:10 PM	Minnesota Twins	Philadelphia Phillies	FOX
Mon, Jun 21	9:40 PM	New York Yankees	Arizona Diamondbacks	ESPN
Sat, Jun 26	7:10 PM	Boston Red Sox	San Francisco Giants	FOX
Sat, Jun 26	7:10 PM	Chicago Cubs	Chicago White Sox	FOX
Sat, Jun 26	7:10 PM	New York Yankees	Los Angeles Dodgers	FOX
Sat, Jul 3	4:10 PM	Florida Marlins	Atlanta Braves	FOX
Sat, Jul 3	4:10 PM	Milwaukee Brewers	St. Louis Cardinals	FOX
Sat, Jul 3	4:10 PM	Tampa Bay Rays	Minnesota Twins	FOX
Sun, Jul 4	8:15 PM	Kansas City Royals	Los Angeles Angels	ESPN
Mon, Jul 5	7:10 PM	Boston Red Sox	Tampa Bay Rays	ESPN
Sat, Jul 10	4:10 PM	Chicago Cubs	Los Angeles Dodgers	FOX
Sat, Jul 10	4:10 PM	Minnesota Twins	Detroit Tigers	FOX
Sat, Jul 10	4:10 PM	Atlanta Braves	New York Mets	FOX
Sun, Jul 11	8:05 PM	Chicago Cubs	Los Angeles Dodgers	ESPN
Sat, Jul 17	4:10 PM	Los Angeles Dodgers	St. Louis Cardinals	FOX
Sat, Jul 17	4:10 PM	Tampa Bay Rays	New York Yankees	FOX
Sun, Jul 18	8:05 PM	Philadelphia Phillies	Chicago Cubs	ESPN
Mon, Jul 19	8:15 PM	Philadelphia Phillies	St. Louis Cardinals	ESPN
Sat, Jul 24	4:10 PM	Colorado Rockies	Philadelphia Phillies	FOX
Sat, Jul 24	4:10 PM	Minnesota Twins	Baltimore Orioles	FOX
Sat, Jul 24	4:10 PM	New York Mets	Los Angeles Dodgers	FOX
Mon, Jul 26	7:05 PM	New York Yankees	Cleveland Indians	ESPN
Sat, Jul 31	4:10 PM	Los Angeles Dodgers	San Francisco Giants	FOX
Sat, Jul 31	4:10 PM	Seattle Mariners	Minnesota Twins	FOX
Sat, Jul 31	4:10 PM	Detroit Tigers	Boston Red Sox	FOX
Mon, Aug 2	7:10 PM	New York Mets	Atlanta Braves	ESPN
Sat, Aug 7	4:10 PM	San Francisco Giants	Atlanta Braves	FOX
Sat, Aug 7	4:10 PM	Boston Red Sox	New York Yankees	FOX
Mon, Aug 9	7:10 PM	St. Louis Cardinals	Cincinnati Reds	ESPN
Sat, Aug 14	4:10 PM	Chicago Cubs	St. Louis Cardinals	FOX
Sat, Aug 14	4:10 PM	San Diego Padres	San Francisco Giants	FOX
Sat, Aug 14	4:10 PM	Baltimore Orioles	Tampa Bay Rays	FOX
Wed, Aug 18	7:05 PM	Detroit Tigers	New York Yankees	ESPN
Sat, Aug 21	4:10 PM	Atlanta Braves	Chicago Cubs	FOX
Sat, Aug 21	4:10 PM	Texas Rangers	Baltimore Orioles	FOX
Sat, Aug 21	4:10 PM	Los Angeles Angels	Minnesota Twins	FOX
Sat, Aug 28	4:10 PM	Philadelphia Phillies	San Diego Padres	FOX
Sat, Aug 28	4:10 PM	Florida Marlins	Atlanta Braves	FOX
Sat, Aug 28	4:10 PM	Minnesota Twins	Seattle Mariners	FOX
Wed, Sep 1	7:10 PM	New York Mets	Atlanta Braves	ESPN
Sat, Sep 4	4:10 PM	Los Angeles Angels	Oakland Athletics	FOX
Sat, Sep 4	4:10 PM	New York Mets	Chicago Cubs	FOX
Sat, Sep 4	4:10 PM	Texas Rangers	Minnesota Twins	FOX
Wed, Sep 8	7:10 PM	Tampa Bay Rays	Boston Red Sox	ESPN
Sat, Sep 11	TBD	Seattle Mariners	Los Angeles Angels	FOX
Sat, Sep 11	4:10 PM	St. Louis Cardinals	Atlanta Braves	FOX
Sat, Sep 11	4:10 PM	Philadelphia Phillies	New York Mets	FOX
Wed, Sep 15	8:15 PM	Chicago Cubs	St. Louis Cardinals	ESPN
Sat, Sep 18	4:10 PM	Atlanta Braves	New York Mets	FOX
Sat, Sep 18	4:10 PM	Colorado Rockies	Los Angeles Dodgers	FOX
Sat, Sep 18	4:10 PM	Detroit Tigers	Chicago White Sox	FOX
Wed, Sep 22	7:05 PM	Tampa Bay Rays	New York Yankees	ESPN
Wed, Sep 29	8:10 PM	Boston Red Sox	Chicago White Sox	ESPN

ESPN only schedules their Sunday Night games into July and after that they can pick any teams they want. Last season more often than not that was the Yankees or the Red Sox.

You wonder why those two teams have more money than other teams to spend on players and scouts and the other things that make you a consistent winner? Wonder no more.

They get paid for each of these appearances. If they get more of them than all the other teams, how is that creating an even playing field?

All the national games also means more Yankees and Red Sox merchandise being sold because all those people not living in the 30 cities that have MLB teams are buying the stuff of the teams they see on TV most. How is that creating an even playing field?

How many times were the Padres on national TV last season? Twice. (They were scheduled for 3 games just as they are this season, but only made two broadcasts)

How many times were the Yankees on national games last season?
15 games against the Red Sox (of 18?). 26 games against other opponents. For a total of 41 games.

How many times were the Red Sox on National Games last season?
15 games against the Yankees. 26 games against other opponents. For a total of 41 games.

How many games were broadcast nationally on ESPN, Fox and TBS total?
As far as I could find - 108.

You may have noticed I have not included MLB Network. I did that because its viewership is too small to be called national.