How the Padres Blew Trade of Type A Free Agent Heath Bell

Saturday August 6, 2011

How the Padres Blew Trade of Type A Free Agent Heath Bell

I keep hearing that the reasoning the Padres are giving for not trading Heath Bell is that they felt that they were not being offered two draft picks worth of prospects in return.

In my opinion, the Padres front office outsmarted themselves on not trading Bell for whatever they could get before the July 31^st trading deadline.

Three things the Padres brain trust should have kept in mind:

•  Draft picks in the 1^st and the supplemental round cost big money and are far from sure things. Less than 17% make it as regulars in the major leagues.
• A team has already spent money on the prospects you were asking for in the draft and seen their progression. You would have had to ask for prospects FAR away from being ML ready.
• Bell would have to refuse to accept arbitration for a place he LOVES to live and play And a place he had repeatedly said for more than a year that he would take a DISCOUNT to continue to play, in order for the Padres to get compensation for him signing elsewhere as a free agent .

What Could Have Been

If the Padres had been better at communicating with their star closer, Heath Bell would have likely returned to the Padres for 2012 as a Free Agent AT A DISCOUNT and, with the Padres holding a top ten place in the 2012 amateur draft, their draft pick in the first round would be protected.  

What I am saying is the Padres could have had their cake and ate it too. Get the prospects for Bell NOW and resign him in 2012 at a discount and only have to give up a 2^nd round draft pick.

They were reportedly being offered a package by the Rangers that included the low ceiling, but high probability LHP Robbie Erlin and a lower level prospect at Myrtle Beach, either OF Travis Adair or SS Leury Garcia.

Scouts for the Rangers I spoke with in my travels said in the week prior to the deadline that “Robbie is going” in relation to a potential Bell trade.

What Happened

Instead the Padres got nothing for Bell and subsequent to the deadline saw Bell make a public pronouncement that he WOULD accept arbitration to continue playing in San Diego if the Padres offered, effectively minimizing his value in trade if the Padres attempted to trade him now.

For Bell this actually INCREASED his value in free agency if he chooses to sign elsewhere as:

1. Other teams know that the Padres would be foolish to offer him arbitration when faced with a probable salary for Bell of  $12-$13 million (of a projected total payroll of $50-$55 million)
2. Other teams do not have to give up a draft pick to sign Bell if the Padres don’t offer arbitration.

Where this Leaves the Padres

The Padres front office, and Jed Hoyer in particular, have put themselves in a difficult position in regards to Bell when they went into trade season in the drivers seat. 

They will likely have to trade Bell before the end of August basically for whatever they are offered or let him walk after the season with no compensation. They have left themselves in a position where they no leverage.

The Padres would have then set themselves up to get a 2nd package of prospects for Mike Adams.

The Padres front office have completely blown the trade of Heath Bell.

What does Bartlett & Hudson contracts mean for Bell?

Monday January 10, 2011

If the multi-year contracts of Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett are any indication, Jed Hoyer is putting together a Padres team for a 2 year run at the playoffs. That would be a real good sign for Heath Bell signing a multi-year contract too.

Bell is reportedly asking for a 3 year deal in the $20-21 million range. Like the contracts for Hudson and Bartlett that deal would probably be structured as a 2 year deal with a mutual option or vesting option for a 3rd year.

If the Padres can get Bell to agree to a below market 1st year as they did with Bartlett and Hudson, then the Padres would have further payroll flexibility to go out and spend on another starter or left handed bat off the bench or whatever Hoyer feels the team needs.

Even at the $7 million he is expected to receive in arbitration, Bell is a good value.

For the past two seasons Bell has been an elite closer recording the most saves in baseball. His FIP is the lowest in the game amongst relievers with 120+ IP over that period, his xFIP & ERA are 5th in baseball and only Carlos Marmol gave up less HR per 9.

In 2010 Bell gave up just 1 home run in 70+ innings. He had a 2.05 FIP and a 1.93 ERA. In other words his ballpark & defense had little effect on his effectiveness as a pitcher.

Keeping Bell in the fold for 2 years gives the young pitchers on the staff an incredible boost of confidence. They don't HAVE to go 9 perfect innings to win the game. All they have to do is give 6-7 good innings every time out and the bullpen will do the rest.

Bell could probably be signed for a similar amount to the contracts we are seeing handed out for setup men.

Comparatively Bell is a bargain.

Add to that the fact that if the Padres do sign Bell to a team friendly multi-year deal that is being tossed around (3yrs/$20-$21 million) it actually makes him MORE valuable as a trade piece at the deadline if the Padres are not in the hunt for a playoff spot.

Signing Bell, an elite closer, to a multi-year deal is a no lose proposition for the Padres.

So what becomes of Bell, Kouz and Adams?

Thursday January 14, 2010

With the date arbitration eligible players and their teams need to exchange numbers, the question I have is what will happen with Bell, Kouzmanoff and Adams?

Will any or all of them be traded? If they are to be traded, will the Padres wait until after signing them to trade them?

Will the Padres attempt to sign any or all of them to a  long term deal at favorable rates?
Will any or all of them make it all the way to actual arbitration proceedings? Under Moores and Towers, the Padres signed almost every arbitration eligible player prior to the arbitration proceedings. What will Moorad and Hoyer do?

So what do you think? What will happen to Heath Bell, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Mike Adams?

A look forward at a possible 2010 Padres Roster

December 9, 2009

A Look Forward at the San Diego Padres 2010 Roster and Payroll

I thought I would get a head start on what the 2010 Padres roster would look like.

What follows is the players currently on the roster and their projected salaries. Arbitration eligible players salaries are in ranges and include what I would offer or do in paranthesis.

There are many question marks and much that may change in the next few days at the Winter Meetings.

Position Players
1B - Adrian Gonzalez     - $4.75 million
2B - David Eckstein     - $1.0 million
SS - Everth Cabrera     - 0.4000 million
3B - Kevin Kouzmanoff     - $3.0 - $4.0 million (Trade)
LF - Chase Headley    - 0.4115 million
CF - Tony Gwynn/    - 0.4050
RF - Kyle Blanks    - 0.4000
C  - Nick Hundley    - 0.4044

Bench
Will Venable        - .4023
Oscar Salazar        - .4000

Starting Pitching
Chris Young        - $6.250 million
Mat Latos        - 0.400
Kevin Correia        - $2.5 - $3.5 million (Sign to a 2 year $6 million deal with a team option)
Clayton Richard        - 0.405
Aaron Poreda/Sean Gallagher/Wade LeBlanc/Tim Stauffer/Cesar Carillo/Cesar Ramos

Bullpen
Heath Bell        - $3.5 - $4.5 million (Trade or sign to 2 year $7 million deal)
Edward Mujica        - 0.404
Luke Gregerson        - 0.400
Joe Thatcher        - 0.404          
Adam Russell, Greg Burke, Luis Perdomo, Ryan Webb, Mike Ekstrom and possibly Mark Worrell.

Payroll without trades or signing outside organization - $26.3362 - $29.362 million

$ the Padres have to spend with a $43 million payroll = $13.5 - $16.5 million

Needs
Middle infielder/Utility - especially one that can play SS
Catcher
Starting Pitcher



What Do I think Will/Should happen for 2010

If the Padres trade Gonzalez they will be signaling they are giving up on the 2010 and quite possibly the 2011 season completely and will not bring in a fairly expensive FA like Cameron who will command $7 million plus. Gonzalez makes a very reasonable $4.75 million in 2010.

The Padres will not bring back enough in trade to offset the loss of fan support/goodwill and local revenue and production from Gonzalez to make a trade worthwhile for at least two seasons. For those reasons alone he will probably not be traded..

If the Padres retain both Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff, Correia and Bell all get the $2.5 - $3.5 million they are expected to get in arbitration the Padres are still $13.5 million under their $43 million payroll level at the beginning of the 2009 season.

Moorad and Hoyer have said  the Padres payroll will begin with a 4. In other words $40-49 million

I would think a trade of Bell and Kouzmanoff is much more likely than a trade of Gonzalez.

The Padres would save $7 - $9 million in 2010 and probably double that in 2011 by trading Bell and Kouzmanoff.

Trading both would also bring in 3+ good prospects.

So lets recap.

The Padres trade Gonzalez they save $4.75 million in 2010 and $5.5 million in 2011 and get 4-5 prospects.

If the Padres trade Kouzmanoff and Bell they will save $7-9 million in 2010 and $14-18 million in 2011.

If Hoyer is any good he will not have to trade Gonzalez to build the Padres into a contender in 2010 or 2011.

Bell gets 40th Save in Colorado

Wednesday September 23, 2009

Will Venable was red hot on a cold and drizzly night in Denver, driving in 4 runs on his 12th home run and a 3 run double, to lead the San Diego Padres to a 6-3 win over the Colorado Rockies tonight at Coors Field.

Starter Tim Stauffer was wild early, walking 4 in the 1st two innings, but after a dressing down on the mound by manager Buddy Black in the 2nd, Stauffer took a no hitter into the 5th inning before surrendering 2 runs.

More than anything, Stauffer's pitch count, 101 pitches, ended his night early. His final line: 4 2/3 innings pitched, 3 hits, 2 runs, 5 walks and 3 strike outs.

Stauffer didn't get the win, but he did contribute a single and scored a run on Venable's 3 run double in the 5th.

Reliever Ryan Webb came in and bailed out Stauffer with 2 on and 2 outs in the 5th to get his first major league win.

Heath Bell got his NL leading 40th save of the season. Bell became only the 3rd Padres pitcher to get 40 saves. Mark Davis had 44 saves in his Cy Young season in 1989 and Trevor Hoffman had nine 40 save seasons as a Padre.

Jason Marquis took the loss for the Rockies and saw his record fall to 15-12. After going 11-6 with a 3.65 era in the first half, Marquis has gone 4-6 with a 4.48 ERA in 12 starts in the 2nd half.

The Rockies lead in the Wild Card standings is now 4 games over the Atlanta Braves and division foe San Francisco Giants with 10 games to play for all three teams.

The Padres record improved to 70-83. With 9 games remaining on the Friars schedule, 5 at home, they have a shot at ending the season with 12 game improvement over 2008 by taking 5 of 9 against division foes.

Padres rally with a Walk off Walk!

Saturday September 12, 2009

Colorado Rockies reliever Franklin Morales, who had 6 straight saves since Huston Street was injured, was wild in the 10th, walking 3 to give the Padres the win 3-1 on a walk off walk tonight at Petco Park.

Heath Bell blew his 2nd straight save at home and 3rd straight against the Rockies, giving up the key hit to Yorvit Torrealba in both games.

Tim Stauffer had another good outing giving up just 1 run on 3 hits and 4 walks in 6 innings. Sean Gallagher got his first win as a Padres with a scoreless 10th.

Esmil Rogers made his first major league start for the Rockies giving up 2 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks over 4 innings.

With the win tonight the Padres surpassed their win total from 2008 with 19 games left in the season.

The rubber match is tomorrow at 1:05pm.
Clayton Richard takes the mound for the Padres against Jason Marquis.

Bell blows 2nd straight at home

Saturday September 12, 2009

San Diego Padres Closer Heath Bell came in and blew his 2nd straight game against the Colorado Rockies. Of 5 blown saves this season, 3 are against the Rockies. He just cannot hold a lead against them.

Eckstein continues clutch hitting as Padres win in 12

Tuesday August 25, 2009

The San Diego Padres' David Eckstein continued his white hot hitting in clutch situations as he drove in catcher Nick Hundley for what proved to be the winning run with 2 outs in the top of the 12th inning in Atlanta tonight.

Eckstein was hitting an incredible .366/.422/.561/.983 with runners in scoring position and 2 outs for the Padres this season coming into tonight's game.

Mat Latos, widely thought to be the savior for the beleaguered Padres pitching staff going into 2010, was dominating. Latos threw 7 scoreless innings, giving up just 2 hits and no walks while striking out 4 in just 89 pitches.

Heath Bell gave up 2 hits, a walk and 1 run in the 9th inning to blow his 3rd save of the season. Bell has saved 30 games while blowing just 3 save opportunities.

Braves rookie reliever Kris Medlen took the loss. Joe "Becky" Thatcher got the win and Edward Mujica got the save for the Padres.

Padres win 2nd straight road game, series

Wednesday August 12, 2009

The San Diego Padres guaranteed themselves their second straight series win on the road with a 6-5 come from behind win over the Milwaukee Brewers tonight at Miller Park.

They can get their first road series sweep of the season, and their first sweep since May, with a win in tomorrow's 11:05 AM (PDT) game.

Kevin Correia went 6 innings, giving up 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks, for his Padres leading 8th win of the season.

Kevin Kouzmanoff went 3 for 4 to pace the Padres and drove in what proved to be the winning run in the top of the 7th.

Heath Bell came in to pitch the 9th for his National League leading 29th save.

Reliever Todd Coffey took the loss for the slumping Brewers, their 4th loss in 5 games. With the loss the Brewers are now 3 games under .500 at 55-58 and 7.5 games back in both the NL Central and the Wild Card race.

Cabrera giveth and Cabrera taketh away

Friday August 7, 2009

In the 1st inning an error by Everth Cabrera led to the New York Mets only two runs of game.

Known for his speed on the base paths not his power, Cabrera atoned for his early miscue by hitting hitting a walk off grand slam off Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez in the bottom of the 9th to give the Padres a 6-2 win. It was KRod's 5th blown save of the year and the slumping Mets 7th loss in the last 10 games.

Kevin Correia looked snake bit after that error allowing 6 hits, 2 walks and 2 unearned runs on 67 pitches through 3 innings. He then settled down allowing only just one Met to reach base over the next 3 innings. His line 6 IP, 7 Hits, 2 Runs, 0 ER, 2 BB, 0 HR to lower his ERA to 4.51 on the season.

After 2 scoreless innings from Joe Thatcher and Mike Adams, Heath Bell came in and pitched a scoreless 9th to earn the win, his 4th of the season.

Former Padre Oliver Perez pitched 6 1/3 innings of 2 hit ball striking out 7 and giving up just a single run before giving way to Brian Stokes in the 7th. Perez has literally had an up and down year after signing a 3 year $36 million contract in the off season, being sent down to AAA on several occasions and throwing just 48.2 innings with a 7.03 ERA coming into tonight's game.

Does the All Star Game have ANY meaning today?

Tuesday July 14, 2009

Is it apropos that Heath Bell took the loss in the All Star Game, while Trevor Hoffman, whose team is still in the running for a playoff spot, pitched well?

Is it a sign of things to come for the Padres and the National League?

Or does the All Star Game really not matter at all?

I am putting my money on number 3. The All Star game really is not important.

It isn't a chance to showcase the best talent in the league, because frankly many of the top players are not in the game. The fans pick most of the players and the managers are handcuffed by a rule that says every team has to have representationso they often have to take a player that is marginal or that really doesn't belong just because the rest of his team sucks. There are players that are popular but not having particularly good seasons in the All Star game nearly every year.

And the game is more like a Little League game where everybody has to play. To heck with that. If the game means something you are out there to win, not to make sure al the little boys get a chance to play.

Trying artificially to make it mean something by having it determine home field advantage in the World Series is a crock because the pitchers go a maximum of 3 innings (most a single inning) and the starting 8 go maybe 2 at bats.

If we want the All Star Game to mean something:

• Take the best players period. Not one from each team. Just the best. If a team like Washington or Oakland or San Diego does not have a player who is among the 25 or so best players in the league then they don't get a representative on the All Star team.
  
  Winning isn't about equal representation, it is about putting the best players on the field. And the game mwans nothing if you are not doing all you can to win the game.
  
  
• If you want the fan vote to mean something then 1 vote per fan.
  Not which teams fans can stuff the ballot box better. I know a guy that got a full case of ballots, and then punched the tabs for the Dodgers players with an industrial drill press. That one man must have turned it at least 5,000 ballots.
  
  On a Red Sox message board one fan admitted to creating more than 100 email addresses on Gmail so he could vote for Red Sox players 2500+ times. How does it make it fan favorites when you can do that? Fact is it ruins the whole process.
  
  
• Have your starting pitcher go as deep into the game as he is effective just like a regular game that actually DOES mean something
  
  
• Have your entire starting 8 go an absolute minimum of 3 at bats. If they are the best 8 players in the league, don't you think they should get the lions share of the chances to win the game with their bats?

But none of that will ever happen and the All Star game will continue to be a mid-summer joke.

I have had my say. Now what do you think?

Come on now, Don't be shy. Step right up and tell us all what you think!

He even sounds like his daddy.

Saturday June 6, 2009

After being on base 5 times in 5 at bats tonight (a single, a double and 3 bb), the post game interview let us hear that not only has Jr hit like his HOF daddy, he even sounds like him.

Oh yeah, and the Padres won the game over the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-4.

After a shaky start in the first when he allowed 2 runs on 2 hits, a passed ball and a hbp, Kevin Correia settled down and shut down the D'backs for the next 5 innings to get his 2nd win of the season. In all he allowed 2 runs on 5 hits, 1 walk and a hbp in 6 IP.

Chase Headley started his 1st game at 3B this season, but gave way to Kevin Kouzmanoff in the 7th inning after being hit by a pitch for the 2nd time in the game by D'backs pitchers.

After not scoring a run in the first 14 innings of the series, the Padres exploded for 6 runs in the 6th inning.

Will Venable started it out with a double to right, Blanco moved him to 3rd with a sac fly and Chris Burke drove him home with a single. Edgar Gonzalez flied out for the 2nd out. Then it got fun. Gwynn Jr. walked and Eckstein drive in Burke. Adrian Gonzalez was walked to load the bases. Then Headley took a pitch in the leg from Dan Schlereth to drive a run. Giles drives in two with a single and then the guy who started it all off in the 6th, drove in the 6th run of the inning with a single to left.

NICE Inning!

After a perfect inning by Luke Gregerson and Edward Mujiica gave up a solo shot to Upton in the 8th inning, Heath Bell came in for the 9th and got his 16th save after allowing a single run on a walk, a wild pitch, a sac, and ground out.

The Padres improve to 26-29 on the season.

Adrian Gonzalez has now been walked 15 times in the past 8 games. With no one to protect him in the lineup, Adrian is being pitched around by other teams rather than give him a chance to beat them.

Padres end 3-3 road trip with a 5-2 win over the Rockies

Sunday May 31, 2009

The San Diego Padres defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-2 today at Coors Field in Denver to improve their record on the season to .500 at 25-25. The Padres 3-3 record on this road trip was a big improvement over their 5-16 road record going into it.

The game was highlighted by Adrian Gonzalez's league leading 20th home run and closer Heath Bell's league leading 15th save.

When was the last time Padres fans could talk about having two league leaders in a positive category on the roster?

Gonzalez crushed a 3 run shot to left field in the 3rd inning that staked Padres starter Chad Gaudin to a 3 run lead. Gonzalez is now the Padres all time leader in home runs through the end of May and he did it in just 179 at bats. Greg Vaughan had been the previous leader with 17 home runs through the end of May in his Padres record 50 home run season in 1998.

Gaudin went 6 innings, giving up 7 hits and 2 runs (1 earned), striking out 9 including 6 of the 1st 8 batters he faced while walking zero. Gaudin had been plagued by wildness recently, walking 16 in 15 2/3 ip over his last 3 starts prior to today, so it was nice to see him attacking hitters and throwing strikes.

One day after blowing his first save of the season, Bell came in and pitched a perfect 9th for his 15th save of the season.

As much as I howled about the trade that sent Jody Gerut to the Brewers for Tony Gwynn Jr., I must admit to being pleasantly surprised by the offensive production by Jr. He is 10/25 - .320 with 8 runs scored in 9 games. His defense has been less than stellar, but his offense has been outstanding.

The Padres now return to San Diego for a 6 game home stand against the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks starting tomorrow. The Padres split a series 2-1 with the Phillies at Citizens Bank Ballpark in Philadelphia in April as part of a 9-3 start.

Kevin Correia will square up against the Phillies' Joe Blanton in the series opener tomorrow, followed by gimping Padres starter Jake Peavy against rookie Antonio Bastardo in his first major league start on Tuesday.

Can the Padres continue their .739 win percentage at home against the defending World Series champion Phillies and the division rival Diamondbacks?

Padres drop 2nd straight game to hapless Rockies

Saturday May 30, 2009

Well, now we know, Heath Bell is human. He blew his first save and the San Diego Padres lost 8-7 tonight to the Colorado Rockies.

But the game really hinged on errors. Both those called errors and those not called errors.
In the 3rd inning Gwynn Jr twice kicked a ball hit to the gap by Clint Barmes and it was called a triple. 2 batters later Garrett Atkins hit a sacrifice fly to deep center and Barmes scored.

Another error by Gwynn Jr. led to an unearned run. This was a game where the Padres really missed the defense of Jody Gerut.

And there you have the difference in the game.

Bell or another of the Padres relievers may have given up 4 runs in the 9th, but somehow I doubt that given how well they have pitched as a unit for the past 2 weeks.

On a day when the Dodgers also lost, I was hoping to see the Padres would win one and pick up ground in the NL West. It wasn't to be.

7 in a ROW and 2nd place too!

Saturday May 23, 2009

7 Wins in a Row and the Padres move into 2nd place in the NL West.

Just home from the game and it was a beauty! Jake Peavy threw his second straight gem and the bullpen once again shut the door as the San Diego Padres beat the Chicago Cubs for their 7th win in a row.

In his first start as a Padre, Tony Gwynn Jr. led off the game with a walk and doubled in the 5th inning, scoring both times. Gwynn's first two plate appearances as a Padre resulted in a walk and he eventually scored a run both times.

Brian Giles went 1 for 2 with a walk and drove in two runs. For a guy that is hitting only .166, it is amazing that he already has 17 rbi.

Adrian Gonzalez broke out of his slump on this home stand with an opposite field blast in the 7th. Gonzalez is tied with Raul Ibanez for the major league lead in home runs with 16.

Peavy threw 6 innings of shutout ball allowing just 2 hits while striking out 10 in a dominating performance for his 4th win of the season. After the failed trade attempt earlier in the week, Peavy showed amazing poise and focus. Peavy lowered his era to 3.48 for the season.

Luke Gregerson pitched 1 2/3 scoreless innings and Edward Mujica went 1 full inning without allowing a run before giving way to closer Heath Bell with 2 out in the 9th after giving up a pair of singles to Alfonso Soriano and Ryan Theriot.

Bell walked Kusuke Fukudome before inducing a pop foul to the 1st base side from Cubs 1st baseman Derrek Lee for his 12th save of the season.

There was a scary moment in the 1st inning when Eckstein squared around to bunt and was hit by a Zambrano fastball in the upper chest. Eck stayed down for several minutes before getting up and taking his base. This was the 2nd game in a row that he was hit by a pitch after taking a 97 mph fastball in the arm from Giants closer Brian Wilson last night and he was replaced in the field by Edgar Gonzalez in the top of the 2nd.

Peavy plunked Cubs 3B Bobby Scales in the leg in what appeared to be a retaliatory fashion to start the 2nd inning and both benches recieved warnings, but there was no escalation or altercations.

Carlos Zambrano, in his first start since returning from the diabled list, went 4 2/3 innings giving up 3 runs on 3 hits and 4 walks while striking out 7. It was Zambrano's 2nd loss of the season.

Does Bell com in for the 9th?

Cinco De Mayo 2009

So does Black bring in Bell for the 9th inning in a tie game?

The Padres badly need a win and Bell could shut the Rockies down.

Does Black do the right thing and bring him in now?