Padres Quentin Injures Right Leg - Out 4-6 weeks

San Diego Padres GM Byrnes made a huge, and to the low budget Padres very expensive, mistake in trading for Carlos Quentin.

The prospects he sent to the White Sox notwithstanding, Quentin had averaged only 98 games per season in the field for the White Sox over the past three seasons. Nothing indicated he would be any more healthy his year. In fact, the pattern of being injury prone was in place like a Huge Red Flag and Byrnes simply ignored the warning signs. Byrnes wanted to make up for another huge mistake he made while in Arizona in trading away a then 24 year old Quentin and in doing so compounded his mistake.

Padres Carlos Quentin Injures Right Leg - Out 4-6 Weeks

Now Quentin has injured his right leg and will undergo arthroscopic surgery on Monday. Quentin is expected to miss 4-6 weeks and at the very minimum, the first 2 weeks of the regular season. More likely he will return to the Padres lineup in the last week of April or early May.

To add insult to Quentin's injury, it is to his right leg, the drive leg for a right handed hitter, and will rob him of power all season. Power is the only thing Quentin has to offer to the Padres as he has been the very worst defensive outfielder in major league baseball over the past 3 seasons with a -38.2 UZR.

Those of you who follow me know that I am not a big fan of defensive metrics like UZR unless there is at least 3 years of data to analyze. Looking at just one season of data is totally useless. Well we have three years of Quentin's defensive contributions to base a good determination of his ability in the field on and it says what our eyes have been telling us, he is horrendous with the glove.

Now about what the Padres are paying for Byrnes attempt to redeem his earlier mistake:

• $7.025 million or more than 13% of the overall 2012 Padres payroll
• Two prospects that now rank in the top 20 for the White Sox organization and who will contribute at the major league level in 2012 for the South Siders. (Castro is #4 or #5 depending on the list)

So the bottom line of Byrnes screw up is that Quentin will give the Padres under 100 games of mediocre power and atrocious defense and then Quentin will leave in free agency after the season.

The GM of the team can afford to make mistakes like this when you have a $100+ million payroll, but in San Diego it can be fatal to your hopes of a decent season.

Byrnes hubris in trying to redeem himself for an earlier mistake and Quentin's continuing injury problems may have torpedoed San Diego chances at a .500 season before the season even begins.

I've had my say about Byrnes, Quentin and the San Diego Padres.

Now its your turn. What do you think?

Manny Tests Positive!

Thursday May 7, 2009

Los Angeles Dodgers Left Fielder Manny Ramirez Tests Positive for a banned substance and is suspended for 50 games.

Now the weak excuses start. "My doctor gave it too me ... I didn't take steroids".

It makes you wonder why these guys think they have to lie. We know that they are juiced. Almost every great power hitter of the past decade has been juiced.

The guys now days trot out that tired old line that Manny tried to foist off today - "I’ve taken and passed about 15 drug tests over the past five seasons".

Come on guys. do you really think we are all that stupid. Steroids are taken on a three week cycle and you pretty much know when you are going to be tested each year. MLB testing is not like Olympic testing where the athletes are subject to random testing all YEAR long even out of competition and may get tested a dozen times or more in season.

Major league players only get tested once in spring training and twice during the season during a home stand. If you are serious about stopping steroid and other performance enhancing drug use you have to do year round testing.

Since steroids are not fat soluble you can take them all off season and up to a few weeks or even days before the testing and still come up clean if it is a urine test, which is what MLB uses, and not a blood test.

Folks, if you were wondering why Manny Ramirez suddenly had this incredible streak of success with the bat once he left Boston in 2008, you have your answer.

Was the delay in coming into camp this year really an attempt to get the steroids he used in the off season out of his system and nothing having to do with the money?

I do have a question for Major league Baseball. In other sports a team (like a relay team in track and swimming) has to forfeit wins if one athlete is caught cheating.

Why do major league baseball teams NOT have to forfeit games when a player is caught cheating?

The guys in the locker room will do a much better job of policing the use of performance enhancing drugs in baseball than you possibly can if they know that they may have to forfeit all the games after the positive test date if a team mate is caught using performance enhancing drugs.

So how about it Fehr and Selig? Are you serious about stopping steroid and performance enhancing drug use or is the drug testing you have now just a smoke screen to shut up the media and the general public?

Lets see some real year-round testing and TEAM penalties.

Then and only then will your sport be relatively free of this scourge.

I have had my say. Now what do you think.

Too Many Outfielders Means Trade Imminent?

Saturday March 14, 2008

An article from Corey Brock on MLB.com and linked on MLBTradeRumors.com says that that the Padres signed oft injured and former top prospect Chris Snelling.

Snelling, 27, was signed out of high school by the Seattle Mariners and made his major league debut at the age of 20. Injuries have derailed his once much heralded career.

Brock says Snelling "broke his hand in 2000, his ankle in 2001 and tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee in 2002 and did it again in 2005. Snelling also broke his wrist and his thumb and has even lost two teeth. All told, he's had seven surgeries on his injured left knee."

After being traded by the Mariners to the Nationals for Ryan Langerhans in May 2007, Snelling bounced around to the A's, Rays and Phillies in the off season and had only 4 ML ab with the Phillies in 2008.

Now the question of the day.

With the Padres already having a glut of good players and prospects in the OF including Chase Headley, Jody Gerut and Brian Giles, who are locked in at their positions and Scott Hairston and Cliff Floyd locked in as the #4 and #5 OF at San Diego and Will Venable, Chad Huffman, Drew Macias, and Emil Brown already slated for AAA Portland, where does Snelling fit in this picture?

This is clearly conjecture as I have not talked to a member of the Padres organization about it, but this may be an indication that the Padres are in the process of working out a trade of Kouzmanoff or Hairston for pitching help before the season starts.

The Tampa Bay Rays are known to be shopping Jeff Niemann, 2004 1st round draft pick (#4 overall), who is the odd man out on a very talented pitching staff in Tampa.

With the additions of Heilman, Gregg and Samardzija to a deep staff, the Cubs do not have room to keep both Angel Guzman and Chad Gaudin, both of whom are out of options and can start or come out of the pen.

Neither of those teams stand in need of a ML 3B or outfielder, so while they have the arms the Padres need, the Padres don't have any ML players they stand in need of.

The Twins have a number of good young arms and Phillip Humber is out of options but the Twins recently signed Joe Crede so they don't have a need for either a 3B or an outfielder.

So if the Padres are trading away either Hairston or Kouzmanoff, where are they going?

The Detroit Tigers have Edwin Jackson (SP) and Bobby Seay (RP) that are out of options and they need a 3B with Inge penciled in as the starter there.

After trading to prospect Matt Joyce for Jackson, the Tigers would need to get a ML player in return to keep there from being a public outcry. Kouzmanoff is a good young power hitting 3B and would be a great fit for them.

Again, I think that the Padres have built up depth in the OF with signings like Brown and Snelling with the intention of trading Kouzmanoff and moving Headley to 3B.

I have had my say. Now what do you think.

A Look Back and a Look Forward – The Padres Starting Pitchers

December 24, 2008

A Position by Position Look at the 2008 Padres and My Thoughts about 2009.

This is the second part of a three part post.

Part Two – The Starting Pitchers

The Starting Rotation is a mess.

More than half of the players on the roster to start last year are gone.

A large portion of the players on the roster to END the season are gone.

The Starting Rotation as of today looks like:
Peavy - 2.85/1.18/.229 with 166 SO in 173.2 innings
– Had an off year in 2008 on the road and the trade rumors this off season had to have been draining, but Peavy is a true ACE and should bounce back with another sub 3 era, double digit win season in 2009

CY - 3.96/1.29/.221 with 93 SO in 102.1 innings
– Hit in face by batted ball and missed 17+ starts. Dropped his era from 4.91 to 3.96 in last 4 starts of season when he was awesome. Health is all he needs to have another double digit win season.

Baek - 4.62/1.33/.273 in 20 starts
– In his first year as a regular starter, Baek was an enigma. One game he would be brilliant, going 7 and giving up only 3 or 4 hits. The next he would give up 7 runs in 3 innings. You never seemed to know what you were going to get. If he is going to be holding down the #3-#4 slot in the rotation in 2009, let’s hope that we see more of the dominating pitcher he was in about half his 21 starts in 2008.

Reineke – 5.00/1.44/.219 in 3 appearances and 2 starts
- Reineke was on the DL with a stress fracture of his scapula to end the 2008 season and I have not heard yet if he will be available for the 2009 season. Let’s hope Reineke does not end up being a part of the rotation to start the 2009 season. To paraphrase an old saying, he is a jack of many pitches, master of none.

Geer - 2.67/1.41/.269 /LeBlanc - 8.02/2.06/.330/Inman
– Geer looked good in his 5 starts, LeBlanc looked bad 3 of his 4 starts, and Inman has never pitched above AA. At this point I would have to give the nod to Geer until his results say he not the one.

I can only hope someone is brought in as a middle of the rotation inning eater.

Would have loved to see the Padres sign Daniel Cabrera, but he signed a one year deal with the Nationals so he could stay in the DC/Maryland area.

Maybe Brad Penny can be convinced to take a one year deal with lots of incentives like the one Wolf signed last year, just to get a chance to kick the Dodgers behind a few times in 2009?

KT, if you read this:
1) Trade Kouzmanoff and a prospect for starting pitching. Someone who can fill that #3 slot behind CY and throw 200 innings. The Padres need an inning eater. The Twins seem to have the young starting pitchers the Padres need and they need a 3rd baseman.
2) Sign Kevin Corriea, Shawn Estes and Mark Prior to minor league deals just in case. The rotation needs the depth.

A Look Back and a Look Forward – Position by Position

December 23, 2008

A Position by Position Look at the 2008 Padres and My Thoughts about 2009.

This is the first part of a three part post.

This morning the position players, starting pitchers will follow later today and the bullpen asap.

Part One – The Position Players

1B was GREAT! Adrian Gonzales was among the best in baseball with 36 hr and 119 rbi
- NO Changes Needed

2B was bad hitting .244/.304/.333 overall with 9 hr and 54 rbi.
- See below. Lots of youngsters fighting for this position in 2009.

SS was a black hole going .244/.291/.348 with 10 hr and 49 rbi
- See below. Not enough youngsters fighting for this job in 2009!

3B was decent hitting .260 with 25 hr and 87 rbi
- No Changes needed unless Kouzmanoff can be traded for starting pitching

LF was not great but certainly better than 2B or SS hitting .258/.345/.422 with 19 hr and 69 rbi. Headley's .275/.346/.417 in 82 games in LF was encouraging.
- No changes needed unless Kouzmanoff is traded and Headley is moved to 3B.

CF platoon of Gerut/Hairston was among best in MLB hitting a combined .305 w/26 hr and 60 rbi in 131 games in CF. Venable filled in well in 26 starts. Edmonds was pitiful.
- Gerut will start in CF and if he stays healthy I would project him at .290/.350/.500 with 20 hr and 75-80 rbi and plus defense. Great production from that position!

RF Giles was among the best in baseball .306/.399/.458/.857 w/12 hr in 144 games in RF
- No Changes needed.

C was a black hole going .204/.269/.297 Hundley was the lone bright spot hitting .239 and playing good defense. How often is .239 a bright spot?
- See Below. Hundley and the invisible backup catcher.

Bench
– Hairston, Egon, Venable, Backup Catcher – Ausmus?, Denker/Cabrera/Antonelli

So the areas of greatest needs in the field are 2B, SS and C.

I would like to see Hundley get 90-100 starts in 2009 so the Padres really only need a decent backup catcher that can tutor Hundley. Recently they signed 30 year old career backup Eliezer Alonzo to a minor league deal. I think Ausmus would also be a good choice at backup catcher.

2B is a position where the Padres have 2 real good 23 year old prospects in Denker and Antonelli and one Rule V pick in Cabrera plus a good bench player in EGon that all may make the opening day roster. Let’s hope one of them steps up to the plate (pun intended) and does well. My money is on Denker.

SS is still a very weak position. LRod is the only real ML player who can play the position well and swings a decent, not good, bat. Everth Cabrera is making a jump from Low A ball to the majors, something that has been successfully done by a position player only once that I can find, and he is really a 2B, not a SS.

Kazmar doesn't seem ready and Drew Cumberland is the next SS prospect in the farm system and he played in Low A ball in 2008.

I think the Padres were hoping to find a starting SS and let LRod play 2b with Egon backing him up.

Eckstein or Vizquel might be good one year transitions to the next generation or a stop gap until the Padres can make a trade for a young starting SS.

I hope that the Padres are not done wheeling and dealing. Still too many question marks and not enough proven depth.

KT, if you are listening, here are my thoughts on position player moves.
1) Trade Kouzmanoff and a prospect for a starting pitcher that can fill the #3 hole and throw 190-200 innings.
2) Sign Eckstein or Vizquel or ??? to a one year deal to fortify the middle infield.
3) Sign Ausmus to backup Hundley – He would be a great teacher.

Looks like the Padres found a buyer for Khalil Greene

December 3, 2008

Joel Sherman of the NY Post is reporting that the Padres have found a taker in a trade for shortstop Khalil Greene.

Corey Brock of MLB.com has also posted today about the possibility of Greene being traded prior to the start of the Baseball Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, Nevada starting Monday.

Two teams have been mentioned in Hot Stove league rumors today, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Baltimore Orioles.

The St. Louis Cardinals are reportedly offering 2 pitching prospects, Mitchell Boggs and Tyler Herron for Greene.

The Orioles have been rumored to be offering 2 young pitching prospects as well, although at this point I have read nothing specific. Would Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta be asking for too much? It is Christmas after all.

Well, maybe it is but a man can dream can't he? How about Arrieta and Troy Patton?

I have had my say. What do you think?

Now the offseason starts in earnest

November 30, 2008

Every year we see the same pattern on most major signings and trades.

Teams wait until they know what they they will have to give up for Type A Free Agents before making their big moves.

And they don't know that until after the Free Agents are either offered arbitration or allowed to leave without compensation.

Some teams will not offer arbitration on players they don't have in their future plans or that would be prohibitively expensive.

Others will be offered arbitration either in hopes of giving the team more time to negotiate a long term deal or to ensure they receive a 1st round draft pick and a sandwich pick as compensation if that player leaves in Free Agency.

A good example of a Type A free agent player that likely will not be offered arbitration is Trevor Hoffman.

As Tom Krasovic of the Union Tribune and Corey Brock of MLB.com have said, Hoffman would likely garner a larger salary in 2009 than either the $4 million he was offered or the $7.5 million he made in 2008 making him much to expensive for the salary cutting Padres.

Kerry Wood of the Cubs would be another player likely not to be offered arbitration. Wood would likely receive $9-10 million in arbitration and the Cubs have recently traded for closer Kevin Gregg, although Yahoo seems to disagree with just about every other media outlet on this matter.

Type A Free Agent players that are expected to be offered arbitration include those that are likely to sign high dollar value, long term contracts.

CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Edgar Renteria, Manny Ramirez, AJ Burnett and K Rod are just a few that are expected to receive an arbitration offer tomorrow.

After that, the fun begins and the hot stove begins to heat up.

Are you ready for some baseball?

Wednesday November 5, 2008

Is there a Penny in the Padres Future

From Rotowire.com

Update: The Dodgers declined their $9.25 million 2009 option for Penny on Wednesday, making him a free agent, the Los Angeles Times reports.

Recommendation: He may be forced to take a short, incentive laden deal to prove that he can still be a healthy option for a full six-month season, but Penny is unlikely to return to the Dodgers after team officials blamed his work ethic for his struggles in Los Angeles, rather than his shoulder issues last season.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Asra2z4DzH38wptEeeSe9m.FCLcF?slug=rotowire-radennyeaving&prov=rotowire&type=fantasy
(If you are wondering why no link - Blogger won't post it. Makes it invisible.)

Hmmmmmmmmm The Padres are the KINGS of picking up pitchers on short term, incentive laden contracts.

Is there a Penny in the Padres Future?

Penny certainly seemed awful angry at the Dodgers and what better way to get back at them than to pitch against them 5-6 times per season.

Tuesday November 4, 2008

From Tim Brown of Yahoo:

The Padres offered Trevor Hoffman a one-year contract for significantly less than the $7.5 million he made last season. Hoffman did not dismiss the offer, but 10 days ago requested a meeting with John Moores, Sandy Alderson and Towers. The meeting hasn’t happened yet.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Ai4hJI.8ivMN_To6PuiHY1sRvLYF?slug=ti-gmnotebook110308&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

I would think that the Padres would act fairly quickly to at least talk to Hoffman, the longest tenured player and all time MLB saves leader.

Last time the Padres tried to negotiate in the media. This time Hoffman might just return the favor and tell everyone exactly what they offered if they don't meet with him soon.

Monday October 27, 2008

The Padres seem to be moving forward with moving the fences in!
Saturday at the Season ticket holders Day on the Field we saw the surveyors marks in right field indicating where the new fences are going to be.

We confirmed it with people we know inside the organization.

The Walls are coming in.

The right field wall will extend straight out from the corner of the Petco porch along what is now the edge of the warning track into right center.

While I didn't have a roller to measure it, the surveyors line was just over 4 strides in from the current wall. Maybe 12-14 feet. At the sign that currently says 400 feet in right center there was a little jog in the line laid out. The beach will be a little bigger than in years past.

From what I understand from people I spoke with, they are going to lower the outfield wall in RF and put rows of seats in front of what is currently the first seat.

Here are some pictures: