Monday June 14, 2010
I'm BAAAAACK.
I'm ticked. (Because I had to stop blogging and tweeting due to my work situation AND because the people that committed to writing for this blog in my absence have not been sending in articles)
And I am going to start taking on some of the people in the media that get paid to talk to us about baseball.
Lets start with Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports.
Tim Brown predicted that the Dodgers would win the West prior to the season and then writes an article on 6/11 saying its a surprise that the Dodgers are doing so well?
WTF?
Tim, your bias is showing.
The Dodgers are NOT doing so well. They are 4 games back of their pace last year and only a 12-2 run from 5/9- 5/23 has kept them even near the lead. They play that stretch at their current .571 pace instead of .857 and they are in 4th place at 31-32.
The only surprise you should be talking about is that the Padres are in 1st place in the NL West, the best division in the NL, and that the Padres have the best record in the NL.
The Dodgers are the defending NL West champions and they spent $2 million MORE than 2009 on season starting payroll this season ($102 million in 2010 according to Cots MLB Contracts).
"New post-nuptial budget" my fat behind . The Dodgers started this season with a BIGGER payroll than last. Maybe you should actually try looking this stuff up. There are lots of great online resources and its not like you have to write so many articles that you don't have time
The Dodgers are SUPPOSED to do well with a $100 million payroll!
The Padres are spending $38 million on player payroll and according to you were going to be in last place.
So maybe you ought to be talking about why the Dodgers are NOT in the lead.
Why the Dodgers are doing poorly compared to expectations.
Why they are 4 games behind their pace last season.
Why their vaunted bullpen has collapsed despite Broxton's incredible ERA.
Maybe you should be talking about why the Padres ARE in 1st place.
Why the Padres ARE leading the NL in win %.
Why the Padres with Young, Cabrera and Blanks on the DL and with Gwynn, Venable and both Hairston's performing below expectations with the bat are still winning at this pace.
Why the Padres ARE for real after going 37-25 in their last 62 games last season and going 37-25 to start this season.
Instead you are writing whiney ass crap defending the Dodgers.
Give us all a break.
The Padres were not supposed to win, so THAT should have been what you are writing about instead of being a Dodger apologist.
Showing posts with label Los Angeles Dodgers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Los Angeles Dodgers. Show all posts
Monday, June 14, 2010
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Reasons Dodgers will not win the West - part deux
Thursday May 13, 2010
Reasons the Dodgers will not win the NL West part deux
The Dodgers have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games and have been playing well. Manny just came off the DL. Ethier is in the lead in all Triple Crown categories. So maybe some of you are thinking that the Dodgers poor play to begin the year was an aberration. That they are on a winning streak and will soon take the NL West lead back.
As Web would say - Braaaaaaak! Sorry wrong answer. Please Play again.
(Yes. The guy did watch way too many game shows while on the road.)
The very fact that the Dodgers have key offensive players doing so much better than they have in any other season is more of a reason to believe that those players will slump towards their career averages and then the Dodgers will not be able to sustain their current winning ways.
Other than Sherrill, no one in the pen is doing substantially worse than most people were expecting from them, especially the relievers whose arms were tasked with and taxed by 70 appearances last season.
What does that all end up to mean? The Dodgers current 8-3 win streak is not sustainable. .500 is a good goal for them to shoot for over the course of the season. If the Padres are going to be caught in the NL West, its not going to be by the Dodgers.
- Vic Power
Reasons the Dodgers will not win the NL West part deux
The Dodgers have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games and have been playing well. Manny just came off the DL. Ethier is in the lead in all Triple Crown categories. So maybe some of you are thinking that the Dodgers poor play to begin the year was an aberration. That they are on a winning streak and will soon take the NL West lead back.
As Web would say - Braaaaaaak! Sorry wrong answer. Please Play again.
(Yes. The guy did watch way too many game shows while on the road.)
The very fact that the Dodgers have key offensive players doing so much better than they have in any other season is more of a reason to believe that those players will slump towards their career averages and then the Dodgers will not be able to sustain their current winning ways.
- Ethier's line - .390/.446/.729/1.175 with 10 hr in 31 games with a BABIP of .391 & an ISO of .339. Look for Ethier's BABIP to drop 60-100 points before seasons end and along with it his batting average, OBP and OPS. His career ISO is .207 and his best season so far was last year with a .237 ISO and 31 hr, so look for his power numbers to drop drastically as well.
- Manny's line - .396/.507/.585/1.085 in 17 games with a BABIP of .380 Manny WILL hit .300-.330 for the season, but his batting average will drop 60 - 90 points along with a big drop in his OBP and OPS.
Wait for it...the list of overachieving players on a losing team continues...
- Loney 's line - .326/.361/.474/.835 with a BABIP of .376. His power numbers are right on his career averages, but he has been lucky to the tune of 57 points. Even if this is a career year, his BA and OBP will drop 25-30 points. Its more likely we will see a 40+ point drop.
Web would probably call this "regression towards the mean".
- The Pitching Staff is performing right now about the same pace we expected they would for the year. The noted exceptions are:
- Kurodi will probably see a slight rise in his ERA. There have been a lot of errors committed behind him so his Earned Runs are down, but his Runs Allowed is at almost exactly the same rate we saw from him last season.
- Billingsley will likely have a 30 point drop in his 4.85 ERA to closer to his 4.56 xFIP. Still not good pitching from the guy that was supposed to be an ace.
Other than Sherrill, no one in the pen is doing substantially worse than most people were expecting from them, especially the relievers whose arms were tasked with and taxed by 70 appearances last season.
What does that all end up to mean? The Dodgers current 8-3 win streak is not sustainable. .500 is a good goal for them to shoot for over the course of the season. If the Padres are going to be caught in the NL West, its not going to be by the Dodgers.
- Vic Power
Wednesday, May 05, 2010
The Effect of the McCourts Divorce on the Dodgers
Wednesday May 5, 2010
Do you think the Moores divorce had a huge effect on the Padres payroll?
The McCourts divorce has resulted in a drop from their season ending payroll of $131,507,197.00 in 2009 to an estimated $83.0 million to begin the 2010 season.
That is a $48.5 million drop in payroll. A 36.9% drop.
While the Padres had a larger percentage drop of 40.6% in going from $73.677 million in 2008 to $43.734 million in 2009, a $29.937 million drop, the dollar figure of the Dodgers drop is $18.5 million or 38.3% larger.
Think about it, the Dodgers drop in payroll from the end of the 2009 season to the start of the 2010 season is larger than the Padres, Pirates or Marlins entire 2010 payroll.
And remember, no team has won the World Series since the advent of salary arbitration in 1973 with one player making more than 16% of the payroll. Manny Ramirez $20 million salary is nearly 25% of the Dodgers $83 million payroll for 2010.
The future for the Dodgers?
While the Padres were adding scouts and crosscheckers, the Dodgers were firing them.
Peter Gammons said - "The Dodgers have an $83M payroll. They couldn't offer salary arbitration to Jon Garland and Randy Wolf because ownership didn't want to pay for additional Draft picks, and have spent the least money on Draft and international signings of any of the 30 teams the last two years"
Their once loaded farm system has seen the best prospects graduate or be traded away and are now ranked 24th by Baseball America.
Prior to the season I wrote to Web that I thought Kershaw would have trouble this season and that Billingley could very well show his true colors as a middle to back of the rotation type.
My reasoning at the time?
"Kershaw - His xFIP of 3.90 and his BABIP of .274 point towards a regression in 2010. Look for his ERA to rise about a point from his 2.79 over 30 starts if he stays healthy.
Billingsley - His xFIP of 4.04 and BABIP of .294 say his ERA of 4.02 was a pretty true indication of his value. In other words average."
How prescient was I?
Kershaw has a 3.07 ERA through 5 starts and 29.1 innings, but has walked 22 and his WHIP is 1.53 which is much more in line with his 4.77 xFIP.
Billinglsley has a 4.85 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP through 5 starts and 26 IP. Taken along with his 4.32 xFIP they combine to paint a picture very much inline with my preseason take.
These two are the future of the Dodgers pitching and represent what were thought by most in the organization to both be future top of the rotation pitchers. They are looking more and more like 2-4 types.
Beyond Ethier and Kemp there are no young position players of All Star caliber in the system above High A. In other words 2-3 years away. Even amongst pitchers, only Scott Elbert is thought to be anything more than a back of the rotation type.
In the field Ramirez and Furcal are both injured and the team itself is filled with journeymen such as Casey Blake, Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carrol, and Reed Johnson; AARP card carriers in Garrett Anderson and Brad Ausmus; and mediocre youngsters such as Xavier Paul and Blake Dewitt.
After the 2010 season Ramirez, Kuroda, Padilla, Ortiz, Belliard, Johnson, Weaver, Ausmus and Anderson will all be free agents. 9 of the 25 players on the roster.
Sherrill, Martin, Billingsley, Loney, Kuo and possibly Kershaw will be eligible for arbitration.
After 2010, the Dodgers are in serious need of a transfusion of big league talent without the capital to go after it either in trade chips or in dinero.
Is a return to the mediocrity we saw after the 1988 WS championship headed to Chavez Ravine? If the McCourts divorce is not settled soon and payroll AND money for signings of amateur talent is not freed up, then the Dodgers will have a hard time competing in the years to come.
- Vic Power
Do you think the Moores divorce had a huge effect on the Padres payroll?
The McCourts divorce has resulted in a drop from their season ending payroll of $131,507,197.00 in 2009 to an estimated $83.0 million to begin the 2010 season.
That is a $48.5 million drop in payroll. A 36.9% drop.
While the Padres had a larger percentage drop of 40.6% in going from $73.677 million in 2008 to $43.734 million in 2009, a $29.937 million drop, the dollar figure of the Dodgers drop is $18.5 million or 38.3% larger.
Think about it, the Dodgers drop in payroll from the end of the 2009 season to the start of the 2010 season is larger than the Padres, Pirates or Marlins entire 2010 payroll.
And remember, no team has won the World Series since the advent of salary arbitration in 1973 with one player making more than 16% of the payroll. Manny Ramirez $20 million salary is nearly 25% of the Dodgers $83 million payroll for 2010.
The future for the Dodgers?
While the Padres were adding scouts and crosscheckers, the Dodgers were firing them.
Peter Gammons said - "The Dodgers have an $83M payroll. They couldn't offer salary arbitration to Jon Garland and Randy Wolf because ownership didn't want to pay for additional Draft picks, and have spent the least money on Draft and international signings of any of the 30 teams the last two years"
Their once loaded farm system has seen the best prospects graduate or be traded away and are now ranked 24th by Baseball America.
Prior to the season I wrote to Web that I thought Kershaw would have trouble this season and that Billingley could very well show his true colors as a middle to back of the rotation type.
My reasoning at the time?
"Kershaw - His xFIP of 3.90 and his BABIP of .274 point towards a regression in 2010. Look for his ERA to rise about a point from his 2.79 over 30 starts if he stays healthy.
Billingsley - His xFIP of 4.04 and BABIP of .294 say his ERA of 4.02 was a pretty true indication of his value. In other words average."
How prescient was I?
Kershaw has a 3.07 ERA through 5 starts and 29.1 innings, but has walked 22 and his WHIP is 1.53 which is much more in line with his 4.77 xFIP.
Billinglsley has a 4.85 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP through 5 starts and 26 IP. Taken along with his 4.32 xFIP they combine to paint a picture very much inline with my preseason take.
These two are the future of the Dodgers pitching and represent what were thought by most in the organization to both be future top of the rotation pitchers. They are looking more and more like 2-4 types.
Beyond Ethier and Kemp there are no young position players of All Star caliber in the system above High A. In other words 2-3 years away. Even amongst pitchers, only Scott Elbert is thought to be anything more than a back of the rotation type.
In the field Ramirez and Furcal are both injured and the team itself is filled with journeymen such as Casey Blake, Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carrol, and Reed Johnson; AARP card carriers in Garrett Anderson and Brad Ausmus; and mediocre youngsters such as Xavier Paul and Blake Dewitt.
After the 2010 season Ramirez, Kuroda, Padilla, Ortiz, Belliard, Johnson, Weaver, Ausmus and Anderson will all be free agents. 9 of the 25 players on the roster.
Sherrill, Martin, Billingsley, Loney, Kuo and possibly Kershaw will be eligible for arbitration.
After 2010, the Dodgers are in serious need of a transfusion of big league talent without the capital to go after it either in trade chips or in dinero.
Is a return to the mediocrity we saw after the 1988 WS championship headed to Chavez Ravine? If the McCourts divorce is not settled soon and payroll AND money for signings of amateur talent is not freed up, then the Dodgers will have a hard time competing in the years to come.
- Vic Power
Monday, May 03, 2010
5 Reasons Why the Padres will be Better in 2010
Monday May 3, 2010
Web gave me a couple of subjects he had wanted to cover and asked me to take a stab at them in his absence.
Today I chose to cover a subject that most people were saying was not possible. From what we have seen from the first month of baseball is not only possible, Its happening.
5 Reasons Why the Padres will be Better in 2010
#1 - The Padres had a .284 babip in 2009 - the 2nd lowest in baseball.
They were unlucky to the tune of 15 points. As Web would say, they are due for a regression towards the mean.
#2 - The Padres had a 96 OPS+ in 2009. Good for 8th best in NL. While all the "experts" on ESPN, MLB Networks and the other sports media were saying the Padres were the worst offensive team in NL, they went out and ranked right in the middle of the pack in park adjusted offense. Park Factors are still beyond the understanding of many in the media.
#3 - The Padres hit 141 hr in 2009. This was good for 13th in NL even though they play home games in Petco. Petco Park depresses HR totals 30% overall. Even playing in Petco, the Padres total was much closer to the league average of 155 than the 16th worst in NL of 95 hr. With Blanks and Venable playing a full season and the return of Scott Hairston, the Padres should produce better power numbers in 2010.
#4 - WPA - the Padres were 5th in the NL at 1.96. WPA is the measure of how well you do in high leverage situations. The Padres obviously did well despite playing half their games in Petco.
#5 - The Padres had a 16.1 WAR in 2009, which ranked 9th in the NL. WAR, or wins above replacement, measures how well a team does offensively and defensively compared to how a AAA player being called up would do. In 2010 the Padres will see improvements in offense for the reasons covered above and will improve on defense to an even greater degree just by having Venable start regularly in RF and having Blanks play in LF instead of the defensively challanged Headley.
What does all that add up to?
The Padres were unlucky offensively last season, play in the toughest park in baseball to hit in and still ended up being a league average team in almost every category.
A little luck, a litle improvement and some young players getting to play every day and for a full seasoin will = a better offensive team.
Defensively the improvement will be even greater with some talented defensive players getting to be on the field daily and Chase Headley being moved to his natural position at 3B from Lf where every ball was an adventure for him.
The Ancillary to the Padres being better?
Why these teams in the NL West will not improve in 2010.
Arizona
They had a team 88 OPS+ with a .299 babip in 2009. They were neither lucky nor unlucky and they stunk with the bat. This season they added 2 players in Kelly Johnson who has an 83 OPS+ and Adam LaRoche who had among the highest Babip in the league amongst 1B at .328 and among the lowest wOBA combined with consistently below average defense for his career, that is a step backwards from a misearable 2009 campaign.
Yes I realize that Johnson has 9 HR right now, but regression towards the mean is a bitch. Expect a .240 average with 15-20 HR by the end of the season after he gets hurt again. He has already missed some games with injuries and there is no reason to believe that trend wont continue.
Los Angeles Dodgers
In 2009 they had a team 104 OPS+ with a .309 BABIP about 10 points toward lucky. They lost a boatload of position players including several starters. For Example they replaced a OPS+ 109 from Orlando Hudson with a 68 from Blake Dewitt at 2B. Their backup in the oufield went from OPS+ 105 Juan Pierre to OPS+ 89 Reed Johnson. Manny Ramirez is a shadow of his steroid self and has already hit the DL once. Same old Manny. Now they have the punch and judy Xavier Paul starting in LF and AJ Ellis backing up at catcher.
Their pitching staff is in even more trouble. They lost inning eating middle of the rotation starters Randy Wolf and Jon Garland and replaced them with Charlie Haeger and Vicente Padilla (who is already on the DL).
San Francisco
They had a team 81 OPS+ and NL worst .305 wOBA in 2009. To remedy that incredibly bad offense they added Aubrey Huff and his .297 wOBA and 81 OPS+ to bat cleanup? This guy could barely secure a starting position on the Orioles roster in 2009. The 35 year old Mark DeRosa and his below league average 97 OPS+ and .327 wOBA is the offensive savior that is giving Giants fans hope? Give me a break. He is a #6 hitter even on the Giants.
The bottom line in ATT Park? They can't hit, they can't run and they are not very good defensively. They are an old club and do not have much depth. Even with the best pitching staff in baseball, the Giants cannot afford even a single injury if they want to compete. I expect them to compete early and then fade as injuries to an old club take their toll.
- Vic Power
Web gave me a couple of subjects he had wanted to cover and asked me to take a stab at them in his absence.
Today I chose to cover a subject that most people were saying was not possible. From what we have seen from the first month of baseball is not only possible, Its happening.
5 Reasons Why the Padres will be Better in 2010
#1 - The Padres had a .284 babip in 2009 - the 2nd lowest in baseball.
They were unlucky to the tune of 15 points. As Web would say, they are due for a regression towards the mean.
#2 - The Padres had a 96 OPS+ in 2009. Good for 8th best in NL. While all the "experts" on ESPN, MLB Networks and the other sports media were saying the Padres were the worst offensive team in NL, they went out and ranked right in the middle of the pack in park adjusted offense. Park Factors are still beyond the understanding of many in the media.
#3 - The Padres hit 141 hr in 2009. This was good for 13th in NL even though they play home games in Petco. Petco Park depresses HR totals 30% overall. Even playing in Petco, the Padres total was much closer to the league average of 155 than the 16th worst in NL of 95 hr. With Blanks and Venable playing a full season and the return of Scott Hairston, the Padres should produce better power numbers in 2010.
#4 - WPA - the Padres were 5th in the NL at 1.96. WPA is the measure of how well you do in high leverage situations. The Padres obviously did well despite playing half their games in Petco.
#5 - The Padres had a 16.1 WAR in 2009, which ranked 9th in the NL. WAR, or wins above replacement, measures how well a team does offensively and defensively compared to how a AAA player being called up would do. In 2010 the Padres will see improvements in offense for the reasons covered above and will improve on defense to an even greater degree just by having Venable start regularly in RF and having Blanks play in LF instead of the defensively challanged Headley.
What does all that add up to?
The Padres were unlucky offensively last season, play in the toughest park in baseball to hit in and still ended up being a league average team in almost every category.
A little luck, a litle improvement and some young players getting to play every day and for a full seasoin will = a better offensive team.
Defensively the improvement will be even greater with some talented defensive players getting to be on the field daily and Chase Headley being moved to his natural position at 3B from Lf where every ball was an adventure for him.
The Ancillary to the Padres being better?
Why these teams in the NL West will not improve in 2010.
Arizona
They had a team 88 OPS+ with a .299 babip in 2009. They were neither lucky nor unlucky and they stunk with the bat. This season they added 2 players in Kelly Johnson who has an 83 OPS+ and Adam LaRoche who had among the highest Babip in the league amongst 1B at .328 and among the lowest wOBA combined with consistently below average defense for his career, that is a step backwards from a misearable 2009 campaign.
Yes I realize that Johnson has 9 HR right now, but regression towards the mean is a bitch. Expect a .240 average with 15-20 HR by the end of the season after he gets hurt again. He has already missed some games with injuries and there is no reason to believe that trend wont continue.
Los Angeles Dodgers
In 2009 they had a team 104 OPS+ with a .309 BABIP about 10 points toward lucky. They lost a boatload of position players including several starters. For Example they replaced a OPS+ 109 from Orlando Hudson with a 68 from Blake Dewitt at 2B. Their backup in the oufield went from OPS+ 105 Juan Pierre to OPS+ 89 Reed Johnson. Manny Ramirez is a shadow of his steroid self and has already hit the DL once. Same old Manny. Now they have the punch and judy Xavier Paul starting in LF and AJ Ellis backing up at catcher.
Their pitching staff is in even more trouble. They lost inning eating middle of the rotation starters Randy Wolf and Jon Garland and replaced them with Charlie Haeger and Vicente Padilla (who is already on the DL).
San Francisco
They had a team 81 OPS+ and NL worst .305 wOBA in 2009. To remedy that incredibly bad offense they added Aubrey Huff and his .297 wOBA and 81 OPS+ to bat cleanup? This guy could barely secure a starting position on the Orioles roster in 2009. The 35 year old Mark DeRosa and his below league average 97 OPS+ and .327 wOBA is the offensive savior that is giving Giants fans hope? Give me a break. He is a #6 hitter even on the Giants.
The bottom line in ATT Park? They can't hit, they can't run and they are not very good defensively. They are an old club and do not have much depth. Even with the best pitching staff in baseball, the Giants cannot afford even a single injury if they want to compete. I expect them to compete early and then fade as injuries to an old club take their toll.
- Vic Power
Sunday, February 07, 2010
Brian Giles signs with Dodgers
Sunday February 7, 2010
According to a Twitter post by Ken Gurnick of MLB.com, former Padre Brian Giles reportedly signed a minor league deal with the NL West rival Los Angeles Dodgers with an invitation to spring training.
Giles is a career .291 hitter with a .400 OBP, .502 SLG , .902 OPS. His career 136 OPS+ is 15th among active players, but he is coming off an injury filled year in 2009 that saw him hit 100 points lower than his career average and start only 58 games.
Giles would likely fill a 4th outfielder and LH bat off the bench role for the Dodgers,
According to a Twitter post by Ken Gurnick of MLB.com, former Padre Brian Giles reportedly signed a minor league deal with the NL West rival Los Angeles Dodgers with an invitation to spring training.
Giles is a career .291 hitter with a .400 OBP, .502 SLG , .902 OPS. His career 136 OPS+ is 15th among active players, but he is coming off an injury filled year in 2009 that saw him hit 100 points lower than his career average and start only 58 games.
Giles would likely fill a 4th outfielder and LH bat off the bench role for the Dodgers,
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Ng interviewed by Padres?
Saturday October 17, 2009
In a twitter post tonight, Corey Brock of MLB.com says that the San Diego Padres have interviewed Los Angeles Dodgers Assistant General Manager Kim Ng.
Ng is one of two women to hold an Assistant GM position in MLB and the first to interview for a general manager position.
In her official BIO on the Dodgers website, Ng's primary responsibilities are to assist General Manager Ned Colletti in player acquisitions and contract negotiation.
She oversees the Dodger's arbitration efforts, player development, and professional scouting departments and manages the day-to-day operations of the baseball department.
Is she the strategic planner with leadership skills that Moorad is looking for?
As of yesterday, Moorad was saying he had interviewed four candidates and would most likely interview one more.
Ng was interviewed today so Moorad's interviewing process is complete. Now we will have to wait and see who he picks and who the other candidates were.
Edit:
Additional sources on Yahoo Sports confirm Corey Brock's Twitter post from earlier this evening regarding NG's interviewing with the Padres.
In a twitter post tonight, Corey Brock of MLB.com says that the San Diego Padres have interviewed Los Angeles Dodgers Assistant General Manager Kim Ng.
Ng is one of two women to hold an Assistant GM position in MLB and the first to interview for a general manager position.
In her official BIO on the Dodgers website, Ng's primary responsibilities are to assist General Manager Ned Colletti in player acquisitions and contract negotiation.
She oversees the Dodger's arbitration efforts, player development, and professional scouting departments and manages the day-to-day operations of the baseball department.
Is she the strategic planner with leadership skills that Moorad is looking for?
As of yesterday, Moorad was saying he had interviewed four candidates and would most likely interview one more.
Ng was interviewed today so Moorad's interviewing process is complete. Now we will have to wait and see who he picks and who the other candidates were.
Edit:
Additional sources on Yahoo Sports confirm Corey Brock's Twitter post from earlier this evening regarding NG's interviewing with the Padres.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Utley contracts deadly Sax Disease?
Friday October 16, 2009
What in the name of Steve Sax is going on?
After committing just 4 throwing errors in 155 games during the regular season and none in 4 postseason games against the Rockies in the NLDS this year, Philadelphia Phillies 2nd baseman Chase Utley now has two throwing errors in 2 games in Chavez Ravine.
Has Utley succumbed to Sax Disease? Has he caught the dreaded Knoblauch flu?
On two routine double plays, Utley has thrown in the ball away. Only a great play by Howard saved him from having his another throwing error in the first game. Tonight's error ultimately cost his team the game.
Call the CDC, bring on the men in the spacesuits. Chase Utley has caught Sax disease in Chavez Ravine.
What in the name of Steve Sax is going on?
After committing just 4 throwing errors in 155 games during the regular season and none in 4 postseason games against the Rockies in the NLDS this year, Philadelphia Phillies 2nd baseman Chase Utley now has two throwing errors in 2 games in Chavez Ravine.
Has Utley succumbed to Sax Disease? Has he caught the dreaded Knoblauch flu?
On two routine double plays, Utley has thrown in the ball away. Only a great play by Howard saved him from having his another throwing error in the first game. Tonight's error ultimately cost his team the game.
Call the CDC, bring on the men in the spacesuits. Chase Utley has caught Sax disease in Chavez Ravine.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Beat LA Part Two
Wednesday September 30, 2009
OUTSTANDING!
Can you think of anything better than watching the Padres keep the Dodgers from clinching the division for a night?
How about TWO nights in a row?
The Padres win tonight 5-0 and sweep the Dodgers in this short 2 game series.
I absolutely love it!
Clayton Richard threw 7 shutout innings giving up just 1 hit and 3 BB.
How did the Padres batters do?
Kevin Kouzmanoff hit a laser of a 3 run home run in the 3rd off Garland.
Nick Hundley went 3 for 4 to raise his average to .246 on the season.
Chase Headley went 2 for 4, drove in a run and scored a run.
And Loretta put a figure 4 leg lock on Everth Cabrera as he tried to get back to 3b in a 4th inning rundown and was called for obstruction. Cabrera scores!
The Padres have played very good baseball the 2nd half of this season and I am excited about their chances of contending in 2010.
Now lets see if the Rockies can go into Chavez Ravine, take 3 games from them in LA and complete the Dodgers humiliating end of the season.
OUTSTANDING!
Can you think of anything better than watching the Padres keep the Dodgers from clinching the division for a night?
How about TWO nights in a row?
The Padres win tonight 5-0 and sweep the Dodgers in this short 2 game series.
I absolutely love it!
Clayton Richard threw 7 shutout innings giving up just 1 hit and 3 BB.
How did the Padres batters do?
Kevin Kouzmanoff hit a laser of a 3 run home run in the 3rd off Garland.
Nick Hundley went 3 for 4 to raise his average to .246 on the season.
Chase Headley went 2 for 4, drove in a run and scored a run.
And Loretta put a figure 4 leg lock on Everth Cabrera as he tried to get back to 3b in a 4th inning rundown and was called for obstruction. Cabrera scores!
The Padres have played very good baseball the 2nd half of this season and I am excited about their chances of contending in 2010.
Now lets see if the Rockies can go into Chavez Ravine, take 3 games from them in LA and complete the Dodgers humiliating end of the season.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Beat LA, Beat LA, Beat LA
Tuesday September 29, 2009
Regardless of records, I don't know if I enjoy anything more than watching the Padres beat the Dodgers.
Watching Manny go 0 for 4 helps makes the Padres victory over the Dodgers even sweeter.
And watching the Dodger fans walk out with their tails between their legs after they drove 4 hours through LA and Orange County traffic to get here hoping to see their team clinch a playoff spot is extremely satisfying.
Can it get any better than that?
Yes it can! The headlines on Yahoo and ESPN when I got home said Dodgers denied NL West title again & Dodgers fail to clinch again as Padres win!
Denying the Dodgers the chance to celebrate is sooooo nice to watch. Keep on lugging that Champagne around Dodgers. I do not want to see you spraying it around the visitors locker room here.
Am I gloating? Am I being mean spirited? Yes I am, but then its the Dodgers so it may just be justified.
So what happened in the game?
Cesar Ramos got his very first major league start. He was wild at times walking 3, but only allowed 1 run on 4 hits over 5 full innings while striking out 2.
Ramos did not get the win as the Dodgers got a run on a Cabrera error in the top of the 6th to tie the game. Ramos had given up a lead off triple to Orlando Hudson and then Everth Cabrera made a fielding error on a routine ground ball by Andre Ethier to allow Hudson to score.
I had not seen Ramos pitch before and I was surprised by his wicked curve ball, but he had trouble getting his fastball over consistently. The pitch speed signs were out in Petco, so I don't know how fast he was throwing. If I had to guess I would say low 90's judging by the swings and misses on high fastballs.
Tony Gwynn smacked a solo home run that hit the RF foul pole in the 3rd that proved to be the only hit the Padres would get off Dodgers starter Chad Billingsley until a run scoring single by Kevin Kouzmanoff in the 6th inning.
Billingsley did walk 5, which proved to be his undoing. He walked the bases loaded in the 6th and David Eckstein, who drew the lead off walk, scored on Kouzmanoff's single with 2 outs.
In the 7th the Padres got an insurance run without the benefit of a hit. Hundley walked, was sacrificed to 2nd by Cabrera, advanced to third on a ground out by Salazar, and then scored on a wild pitch.
4 Padres relievers shut out the Dodgers for the final 4 frames including Heath Bell, who pitched the 9th for his 41st save of the season.
On defense Cabrera had his 20th error of the season in the 6th, but also made a heads up play in the first inning that may have saved a run. After Ramos walked the first two batters, Andre Ethier grounded out to Eckstein and Furcal advanced to 3B, but Orlando Hudson got caught up in a rundown. Furcal advanced down the line towards home plate and Cabrera turned and gunned him down as he tried to return to 3B.
He also made a real nice stop in the 6th inning to rob Manny Ramirez of a single and turned it into a double play ball.
With the win the Padres improved to 73-85, 10 games better than 2008. The Padres are now 37-33 in the 2nd half of the season. They also have the 2nd best record in baseball since July 28th at 35-23.
After hearing Moorad say the Padres will maintain payroll at the $43 million they started 2009 at and possibly spend more in season if the Padres need it to get over the top, I am getting excited about the possibilities for 2010.
And it sure is nice to watch the Padres play the spoiler, so say it with me:
Beat LA, Beat LA, Beat LA.
Regardless of records, I don't know if I enjoy anything more than watching the Padres beat the Dodgers.
Watching Manny go 0 for 4 helps makes the Padres victory over the Dodgers even sweeter.
And watching the Dodger fans walk out with their tails between their legs after they drove 4 hours through LA and Orange County traffic to get here hoping to see their team clinch a playoff spot is extremely satisfying.
Can it get any better than that?
Yes it can! The headlines on Yahoo and ESPN when I got home said Dodgers denied NL West title again & Dodgers fail to clinch again as Padres win!
Denying the Dodgers the chance to celebrate is sooooo nice to watch. Keep on lugging that Champagne around Dodgers. I do not want to see you spraying it around the visitors locker room here.
Am I gloating? Am I being mean spirited? Yes I am, but then its the Dodgers so it may just be justified.
So what happened in the game?
Cesar Ramos got his very first major league start. He was wild at times walking 3, but only allowed 1 run on 4 hits over 5 full innings while striking out 2.
Ramos did not get the win as the Dodgers got a run on a Cabrera error in the top of the 6th to tie the game. Ramos had given up a lead off triple to Orlando Hudson and then Everth Cabrera made a fielding error on a routine ground ball by Andre Ethier to allow Hudson to score.
I had not seen Ramos pitch before and I was surprised by his wicked curve ball, but he had trouble getting his fastball over consistently. The pitch speed signs were out in Petco, so I don't know how fast he was throwing. If I had to guess I would say low 90's judging by the swings and misses on high fastballs.
Tony Gwynn smacked a solo home run that hit the RF foul pole in the 3rd that proved to be the only hit the Padres would get off Dodgers starter Chad Billingsley until a run scoring single by Kevin Kouzmanoff in the 6th inning.
Billingsley did walk 5, which proved to be his undoing. He walked the bases loaded in the 6th and David Eckstein, who drew the lead off walk, scored on Kouzmanoff's single with 2 outs.
In the 7th the Padres got an insurance run without the benefit of a hit. Hundley walked, was sacrificed to 2nd by Cabrera, advanced to third on a ground out by Salazar, and then scored on a wild pitch.
4 Padres relievers shut out the Dodgers for the final 4 frames including Heath Bell, who pitched the 9th for his 41st save of the season.
On defense Cabrera had his 20th error of the season in the 6th, but also made a heads up play in the first inning that may have saved a run. After Ramos walked the first two batters, Andre Ethier grounded out to Eckstein and Furcal advanced to 3B, but Orlando Hudson got caught up in a rundown. Furcal advanced down the line towards home plate and Cabrera turned and gunned him down as he tried to return to 3B.
He also made a real nice stop in the 6th inning to rob Manny Ramirez of a single and turned it into a double play ball.
With the win the Padres improved to 73-85, 10 games better than 2008. The Padres are now 37-33 in the 2nd half of the season. They also have the 2nd best record in baseball since July 28th at 35-23.
After hearing Moorad say the Padres will maintain payroll at the $43 million they started 2009 at and possibly spend more in season if the Padres need it to get over the top, I am getting excited about the possibilities for 2010.
And it sure is nice to watch the Padres play the spoiler, so say it with me:
Beat LA, Beat LA, Beat LA.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Giants roll over and play dead
Saturday September 12, 2009
After getting spanked by the Dodgers 10-3 yesterday at Alphabet Soup Park in San Francisco, the Giants are once again rolling over for the Dodgers tonight.
With the 9-1 loss tonight, the Giants shot at a wild card position have pretty much evaporated.
Its too bad. I personally would have liked to see the Giants at least show up for this home series and make the Dodgers sweat out the division title down the stretch.
After getting spanked by the Dodgers 10-3 yesterday at Alphabet Soup Park in San Francisco, the Giants are once again rolling over for the Dodgers tonight.
With the 9-1 loss tonight, the Giants shot at a wild card position have pretty much evaporated.
Its too bad. I personally would have liked to see the Giants at least show up for this home series and make the Dodgers sweat out the division title down the stretch.
Sunday, July 05, 2009
A Win, a Loss and other Padres News
Sunday July 5, 2009
Let me start out by saying I hope you and yours had a happy and a safe 4th. I enjoyed by watching some good Padres baseball and some bad Dodgers baseball and baking in the sun.
It has been an interesting weekend at the Padres Dodgers games so far. I am still debating keeping my aching and well baked bones at home for the Sunday game.
The Padres won today at Petco 7-4 over the hated Dodgers despite Wo-manny Ramirez's solo shot in the 1st inning.
That was what one Padres heckler was calling Ramirez. He explained to us and to the rest of the fans and to Ramirez himself in a very loud voice that Ramirez took female hormones so he was going to call him Girly. But that because he was so f'ing old that he was going to call him Old Wo-manny.
We heard alot more cat calls and saw lots of signs in this series. Some funny, some not so funny. All directed at Ramirez.
"At least you don't have to worry about paternity tests anymore Ramirez. You are shooting blanks."
"Wood-less Manny." (A Sign)
"Hey Tranny! Isn't that what they call men with shriveled huevos, a tranny?"
"Hey Manny. Your Doctor Called. He said you are supposed to stop the steroids, when your huevos are the size of BB's"
"Its funny, you don't look pregnant Manny"
" Hey Manny I will buy you a ticket to the Hall of Fame. Its the only way you are getting in now.
Josh Geer threw his 4th consective Quality Start today, giving up just 2 earned runs on 7 hits and no walks in 6 1/3 inings while striking out just 1 but did not get the win. Greg Burke pitched 2/3 of an inning in the 7th to take the win. Heath Bell pitched 1 2/3 for his National League leading 23rd save.
Former Padre Randy Wolf went 6 innings for the Dodgers giving up just 1 earned run on 4 hits, striking out 8. The Dodgers defense and their bullpen came unglued and gave up 3 runs in the 7th AND the 8th innings. Ronald Belisario took the loss for the Dodgers.
Yesterday it was the Padres defense taking a siesta along with the bats until late in a 6-3 loss to the Dodgers at Petco.
The wheels fell off early with the Cabrera and Gaudin each committing an errors on single play with 2 outs in the first inning. To set it up for you, Rafael Furcal singled to start the game. O Dog grounded out, but moved Furcal over to 2nd. The Padres promplty walked Ramirez. Ethier then grounded into a tailor made double play ball to first base. Manny was out at 2B and Furcal moved over to third, but it all went wrong at that point. Cabrera airmailed the throw to first and what should have been out #3. Then as Furcal moved towards home plate, Gaudin airmailed the ball home. Run scores and ethier makes it to 2B. A walk to Blake, 3 singles later and the top of the 1st is over with the score 5-0 before the Padres get to take a swing.
The Dodgers scored 1 run on that play and an additional 4 in the inning and the Padres never recovered.
I must say they did fight back and score 3 runs, but it was not enough.
Gaudin took the loss and Kuroda got the win for the Dodgers.
In Other Padres News:
Take heart Padres fans, Silva will only have to make a few more starts.
Cha Seung Baek is coming back soon. His simulated game went well Friday and Black expects him to start a rehab assignment at Portland on Wednesday and make 4 rehab starts.
That puts his return at August 1st or before.
Gregerson may be back this week and Young should be back right after the All Star break.
Let me start out by saying I hope you and yours had a happy and a safe 4th. I enjoyed by watching some good Padres baseball and some bad Dodgers baseball and baking in the sun.
It has been an interesting weekend at the Padres Dodgers games so far. I am still debating keeping my aching and well baked bones at home for the Sunday game.
The Padres won today at Petco 7-4 over the hated Dodgers despite Wo-manny Ramirez's solo shot in the 1st inning.
That was what one Padres heckler was calling Ramirez. He explained to us and to the rest of the fans and to Ramirez himself in a very loud voice that Ramirez took female hormones so he was going to call him Girly. But that because he was so f'ing old that he was going to call him Old Wo-manny.
We heard alot more cat calls and saw lots of signs in this series. Some funny, some not so funny. All directed at Ramirez.
"At least you don't have to worry about paternity tests anymore Ramirez. You are shooting blanks."
"Wood-less Manny." (A Sign)
"Hey Tranny! Isn't that what they call men with shriveled huevos, a tranny?"
"Hey Manny. Your Doctor Called. He said you are supposed to stop the steroids, when your huevos are the size of BB's"
"Its funny, you don't look pregnant Manny"
" Hey Manny I will buy you a ticket to the Hall of Fame. Its the only way you are getting in now.
Josh Geer threw his 4th consective Quality Start today, giving up just 2 earned runs on 7 hits and no walks in 6 1/3 inings while striking out just 1 but did not get the win. Greg Burke pitched 2/3 of an inning in the 7th to take the win. Heath Bell pitched 1 2/3 for his National League leading 23rd save.
Former Padre Randy Wolf went 6 innings for the Dodgers giving up just 1 earned run on 4 hits, striking out 8. The Dodgers defense and their bullpen came unglued and gave up 3 runs in the 7th AND the 8th innings. Ronald Belisario took the loss for the Dodgers.
Yesterday it was the Padres defense taking a siesta along with the bats until late in a 6-3 loss to the Dodgers at Petco.
The wheels fell off early with the Cabrera and Gaudin each committing an errors on single play with 2 outs in the first inning. To set it up for you, Rafael Furcal singled to start the game. O Dog grounded out, but moved Furcal over to 2nd. The Padres promplty walked Ramirez. Ethier then grounded into a tailor made double play ball to first base. Manny was out at 2B and Furcal moved over to third, but it all went wrong at that point. Cabrera airmailed the throw to first and what should have been out #3. Then as Furcal moved towards home plate, Gaudin airmailed the ball home. Run scores and ethier makes it to 2B. A walk to Blake, 3 singles later and the top of the 1st is over with the score 5-0 before the Padres get to take a swing.
The Dodgers scored 1 run on that play and an additional 4 in the inning and the Padres never recovered.
I must say they did fight back and score 3 runs, but it was not enough.
Gaudin took the loss and Kuroda got the win for the Dodgers.
In Other Padres News:
Take heart Padres fans, Silva will only have to make a few more starts.
Cha Seung Baek is coming back soon. His simulated game went well Friday and Black expects him to start a rehab assignment at Portland on Wednesday and make 4 rehab starts.
That puts his return at August 1st or before.
Gregerson may be back this week and Young should be back right after the All Star break.
Thursday, July 02, 2009
Un-BEE-lievable!
Thursday July 2, 2009
After Padres starting pitcher Kevin Correia's pitches were stung by Houston Astros bats for 8 hits and 6 runs in 5 innings, today's game at Petco Park was delayed for 52 minutes in the top of the 9th because of a swarm of bees.
The swarm of several thousand bees completely covered the jacket of the Padres ballgirl after the Queen apparently nested under the jacket. Eventually a beekeeper was called in to remove the queen and break up the swarm. The game continued after the delay and the Astros took the victory 7-2.
Once again the Padres offense looked anemic against a left handed starter. Houston starter Wandy Rodriguez held the Padres to 7 hits and 1 run in 7 innings. To date the Padres are hitting just .230 against LHP.
Former Padre Geoff Blum went 2-4 today including a 3 run homer and 4 rbi.
Scott Hairston provided the only real Padres highlights going 2-4 with a booming double to right center in the 5th inning to drive in Everth Cabrera.
Next up is the Los Angeles Dodgers and the freak show that will undoubtedly follow steroid abuser Manny Ramirez.
Tomorrow's game at 7:05 is sold out as Angelenos are undoubtedly streaming down at this very moment to spend their 4th of July holiday watching the joke that is Manny return from the 50 day suspension he recieved from MLB for being caught using not only steroids, but also a women's fertility drug that is also banned by baseball.
So folks if you don't have a ticket, that may be a good thing for you, as a visit from the Dodgers always brings with it the type of fans that the Raiders attract. In other words, way too many beligerent drunks and gang bangers.
While I will be in my seat all 3 games, I sometimes I wonder why I go to every game when the Dodgers come to town. I avoid the Raiders games even if it means eating my tickets, but I force myself to come to these games and even enjoy baiting Da Bums fans.
Oh well. See you at the park this weekend. Go Padres.
Beat LA! Beat LA! Beat LA!
After Padres starting pitcher Kevin Correia's pitches were stung by Houston Astros bats for 8 hits and 6 runs in 5 innings, today's game at Petco Park was delayed for 52 minutes in the top of the 9th because of a swarm of bees.
The swarm of several thousand bees completely covered the jacket of the Padres ballgirl after the Queen apparently nested under the jacket. Eventually a beekeeper was called in to remove the queen and break up the swarm. The game continued after the delay and the Astros took the victory 7-2.
Once again the Padres offense looked anemic against a left handed starter. Houston starter Wandy Rodriguez held the Padres to 7 hits and 1 run in 7 innings. To date the Padres are hitting just .230 against LHP.
Former Padre Geoff Blum went 2-4 today including a 3 run homer and 4 rbi.
Scott Hairston provided the only real Padres highlights going 2-4 with a booming double to right center in the 5th inning to drive in Everth Cabrera.
Next up is the Los Angeles Dodgers and the freak show that will undoubtedly follow steroid abuser Manny Ramirez.
Tomorrow's game at 7:05 is sold out as Angelenos are undoubtedly streaming down at this very moment to spend their 4th of July holiday watching the joke that is Manny return from the 50 day suspension he recieved from MLB for being caught using not only steroids, but also a women's fertility drug that is also banned by baseball.
So folks if you don't have a ticket, that may be a good thing for you, as a visit from the Dodgers always brings with it the type of fans that the Raiders attract. In other words, way too many beligerent drunks and gang bangers.
While I will be in my seat all 3 games, I sometimes I wonder why I go to every game when the Dodgers come to town. I avoid the Raiders games even if it means eating my tickets, but I force myself to come to these games and even enjoy baiting Da Bums fans.
Oh well. See you at the park this weekend. Go Padres.
Beat LA! Beat LA! Beat LA!
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Why the Padres CAN win the West
Wednesday May 27, 2009
Why the San Diego Padres CAN win the NL West in 2009.
I keep hearing people saying that the Dodgers have the NL West won and no one else has a chance of winning the division.
I want to present one counter argument to that misplaced thought.
(Note: I starting writing this article several days ago and am just getting around to posting it so, even though I have adjusted several of them some of the stats may be off just a bit, but the general idea is still as sound today as it was Tuesday.)
Before I give you any more commentary let me post a few stats.
Can you figure out why these stats show the Padres CAN still win the NL West?
Padres
Brian Giles - .175
Kevin Kouzmanoff - .231
David Eckstein - .225
Edgar Gonzalez - .190
Chase Headley - .234
Chris Young - 4.76
Dodgers
Juan Pierre - .395
Casey Blake - .309
Orlando Hudson - .349
Brad Ausmus - .355
Randy Wolf - 3.02
Jonathan Broxton - 1.17
So what do all these players and their stats have in common?
They are all far off their career norms.
One of the most accurate predictors of human performance is called "Regression (or progression) Towards the Mean".
What that means is athletes tend to move from where they are currently towards their career averages during the course of a season, whether that is regressing or progressing.
In real simple terms, if a player has hit .250 for the first 7 years of his career and is currently hitting .350, he will almost certainly slump from .350 towards .250 as the season goes on.
There are occasional career years or break out years in which a player hits substantially more than his career averages, but in subsequent years they almost always regress towards the career average.
So the players listed above are far off their career norms, and only one, Kouzmanoff is in the age group most likely to have a break out year, so all should regress or progress towards their career averages.
All but one of the batters are more than 40 points off their career averages coming into 2009.
So why does this mean the Padres CAN contend in the NL West?
Brian Giles is hitting more than 120 points below his career average. Considering his age, if he only regresses to f his relatively low combined batting average for the last 3 years, he still will improve by 100 points.
Kevin Kouzmanoff is hitting 35 points below his career average of .266 coming into this season. Kouzmanoff has hit an average of 20 home runs per season and currently he has 4. He has been a player that hit better later in the season his first two seasons, so we should be able to expect an improvement as this season goes along.
David Eckstein has been a very consistent hitter. Not a high average guy for sure, but most years in the .270-.300 range with a career average of .285 coming into the season. Right now he is 60 points below his career averages and chances are he will improve as the season progresses.
Edgar Gonzalez and Chase Headley do not have full seasons at the major league level under their belts so it is more difficult to project improvement this season, but after looking at their minor league stats and last years results it can pretty safely be said that they are better hitters than what we have seen so far.
Throw in injuries to Luis Rodriguez and promising shortstop Everth Cabrera and the Padres hitting should see marked improvement as the season goes on.
Only Scott Hairston is hitting far above his career averages for the Padres.
Chris Young is a full ERA point over his career averages. He is healthy, but has not been consistent so far this season. One game pitching a gem and the next getting blown out. He should also improve.
Heath Bell is below his career average, but as a closer he can see a small increase and still close games effectively.
A large percentage of the Padres position players are due to see an increase in batting average and the number two starter is due to see a full point come off his ERA as the season progresses.
In other words, chances are the Padres will get better as the season goes on.
Now for the Dodgers.
Juan Pierre is hitting more than 90 points above his career norms.
Casey Blake is hitting 20 points higher than his career high and 50 points above his career average.
Orlando Hudson is hitting 45 points higher than his career high and 65 points better than his career average.
Brad Ausmus is playing in rarefied air at over 100 points higher than his career average.
Randy Wolf is more than a full point lower than what his career ERA of 4.26.
Jeff Weaver is more than a full point below his career ERA of 4.72.
Jonathan Broxton is more than 1.8 points lower than his career ERA of 2.98.
These key Dodgers players are due for a fall in batting average and a rise in ERA.
Add to that the continuing struggles of Rafael Furcal. After his injury and subsequent back surgery I posted that no regular in baseball had ever returned from the surgery Furcal had done and completed a full season of baseball and that ALL who have had the surgery had significant drops in production when they did come back.
Furcal is 48 points below his career batting average of .286 and is regressing. He may still improve, but no other player who has had the same back surgery has ever completed a full season or hit his career average ever again in their careers.
Only one Dodger starter is more than 40 points below his career averages, Andre Ethier at .250.
In other words, chances are the Dodgers will get worse as the season goes on.
Will the Dodgers get 8.5 games worse?
Or even meet the Padres half way, with the Padres getting 4.5 games better to the Dodgers getting 4.5 games worse?
That is a question for the baseball Gods.
My point was to show that there is a plausible argument for why the Padres CAN catch the Dodgers and win the NL West.
I have had my say. Now what do you think?
Why the San Diego Padres CAN win the NL West in 2009.
I keep hearing people saying that the Dodgers have the NL West won and no one else has a chance of winning the division.
I want to present one counter argument to that misplaced thought.
(Note: I starting writing this article several days ago and am just getting around to posting it so, even though I have adjusted several of them some of the stats may be off just a bit, but the general idea is still as sound today as it was Tuesday.)
Before I give you any more commentary let me post a few stats.
Can you figure out why these stats show the Padres CAN still win the NL West?
Padres
Brian Giles - .175
Kevin Kouzmanoff - .231
David Eckstein - .225
Edgar Gonzalez - .190
Chase Headley - .234
Chris Young - 4.76
Dodgers
Juan Pierre - .395
Casey Blake - .309
Orlando Hudson - .349
Brad Ausmus - .355
Randy Wolf - 3.02
Jonathan Broxton - 1.17
So what do all these players and their stats have in common?
They are all far off their career norms.
One of the most accurate predictors of human performance is called "Regression (or progression) Towards the Mean".
What that means is athletes tend to move from where they are currently towards their career averages during the course of a season, whether that is regressing or progressing.
In real simple terms, if a player has hit .250 for the first 7 years of his career and is currently hitting .350, he will almost certainly slump from .350 towards .250 as the season goes on.
There are occasional career years or break out years in which a player hits substantially more than his career averages, but in subsequent years they almost always regress towards the career average.
So the players listed above are far off their career norms, and only one, Kouzmanoff is in the age group most likely to have a break out year, so all should regress or progress towards their career averages.
All but one of the batters are more than 40 points off their career averages coming into 2009.
So why does this mean the Padres CAN contend in the NL West?
Brian Giles is hitting more than 120 points below his career average. Considering his age, if he only regresses to f his relatively low combined batting average for the last 3 years, he still will improve by 100 points.
Kevin Kouzmanoff is hitting 35 points below his career average of .266 coming into this season. Kouzmanoff has hit an average of 20 home runs per season and currently he has 4. He has been a player that hit better later in the season his first two seasons, so we should be able to expect an improvement as this season goes along.
David Eckstein has been a very consistent hitter. Not a high average guy for sure, but most years in the .270-.300 range with a career average of .285 coming into the season. Right now he is 60 points below his career averages and chances are he will improve as the season progresses.
Edgar Gonzalez and Chase Headley do not have full seasons at the major league level under their belts so it is more difficult to project improvement this season, but after looking at their minor league stats and last years results it can pretty safely be said that they are better hitters than what we have seen so far.
Throw in injuries to Luis Rodriguez and promising shortstop Everth Cabrera and the Padres hitting should see marked improvement as the season goes on.
Only Scott Hairston is hitting far above his career averages for the Padres.
Chris Young is a full ERA point over his career averages. He is healthy, but has not been consistent so far this season. One game pitching a gem and the next getting blown out. He should also improve.
Heath Bell is below his career average, but as a closer he can see a small increase and still close games effectively.
A large percentage of the Padres position players are due to see an increase in batting average and the number two starter is due to see a full point come off his ERA as the season progresses.
In other words, chances are the Padres will get better as the season goes on.
Now for the Dodgers.
Juan Pierre is hitting more than 90 points above his career norms.
Casey Blake is hitting 20 points higher than his career high and 50 points above his career average.
Orlando Hudson is hitting 45 points higher than his career high and 65 points better than his career average.
Brad Ausmus is playing in rarefied air at over 100 points higher than his career average.
Randy Wolf is more than a full point lower than what his career ERA of 4.26.
Jeff Weaver is more than a full point below his career ERA of 4.72.
Jonathan Broxton is more than 1.8 points lower than his career ERA of 2.98.
These key Dodgers players are due for a fall in batting average and a rise in ERA.
Add to that the continuing struggles of Rafael Furcal. After his injury and subsequent back surgery I posted that no regular in baseball had ever returned from the surgery Furcal had done and completed a full season of baseball and that ALL who have had the surgery had significant drops in production when they did come back.
Furcal is 48 points below his career batting average of .286 and is regressing. He may still improve, but no other player who has had the same back surgery has ever completed a full season or hit his career average ever again in their careers.
Only one Dodger starter is more than 40 points below his career averages, Andre Ethier at .250.
In other words, chances are the Dodgers will get worse as the season goes on.
Will the Dodgers get 8.5 games worse?
Or even meet the Padres half way, with the Padres getting 4.5 games better to the Dodgers getting 4.5 games worse?
That is a question for the baseball Gods.
My point was to show that there is a plausible argument for why the Padres CAN catch the Dodgers and win the NL West.
I have had my say. Now what do you think?
Thursday, May 07, 2009
Manny Tests Positive Part Deux
Thursday May 7, 2009
Manny Tests Positive and is Suspended 50 games!
Los Angeles Left Fielder Manny Ramirez tested positive for a performance enhancing drug and has been suspended for 50 games.
That was the headline and the 1st line of the story.
As Paul Harvey used to say, here is the rest of the story.
According to two sources that reportedly spoke with ESPN's T.J. Quinn and Mark Fainaru-Wada, Manny tested positive for a Gonadotrophin called hCG - human chorionic gonadotropin. It is very similar to Clomid, the drug Bonds and others used when they were allegedly juicing with the help of Balco.
From a post on Fangraphs by Brian Recca I learned that:
So Manny used steroids. Not just a little, but for an extended period and his body shut down the natural production of testosterone.
Then Manny went and had his doctor prescribe another banned substance to get his body to start producing testosterone again.
Manny, this is the internet age. In just minutes we will learn the truth and the truth is you are dirty. And you are not just dirty today, you were apparently doing steroids for long enough for your body to shut down testosterone production so you needed a drug like hCG.
WOW! This one is going to cost you a lot more than the nearly $8 million you are losing while suspended. You are on a one year deal Manny and now no one is going to touch you next season with this suspension and the obvious cover up of steroid use and with you being 37 years old to start the 2010 season.
You could have stayed in Boston and made $40 million for 2 seasons. Instead you are one and done for $16.5 million (what is left over after the $8 million you are losing due to the suspension).
Well I guess this is just more Manny being Manny.
I have had my say. Now what do you think?
Manny Tests Positive and is Suspended 50 games!
Los Angeles Left Fielder Manny Ramirez tested positive for a performance enhancing drug and has been suspended for 50 games.
That was the headline and the 1st line of the story.
As Paul Harvey used to say, here is the rest of the story.
According to two sources that reportedly spoke with ESPN's T.J. Quinn and Mark Fainaru-Wada, Manny tested positive for a Gonadotrophin called hCG - human chorionic gonadotropin. It is very similar to Clomid, the drug Bonds and others used when they were allegedly juicing with the help of Balco.
From a post on Fangraphs by Brian Recca I learned that:
"It is a woman’s fertility drug. According to Wikipedia, hCG is used in combination with various anabolic androgenic steroid cycles.
When using anabolic androgenic steroids the body stops creating testosterone after a number of cycles. This drug helps restore and maintain testosterone production. The drug is used during and after steroid cycles."
So Manny used steroids. Not just a little, but for an extended period and his body shut down the natural production of testosterone.
Then Manny went and had his doctor prescribe another banned substance to get his body to start producing testosterone again.
Manny, this is the internet age. In just minutes we will learn the truth and the truth is you are dirty. And you are not just dirty today, you were apparently doing steroids for long enough for your body to shut down testosterone production so you needed a drug like hCG.
WOW! This one is going to cost you a lot more than the nearly $8 million you are losing while suspended. You are on a one year deal Manny and now no one is going to touch you next season with this suspension and the obvious cover up of steroid use and with you being 37 years old to start the 2010 season.
You could have stayed in Boston and made $40 million for 2 seasons. Instead you are one and done for $16.5 million (what is left over after the $8 million you are losing due to the suspension).
Edit: I guess I was wrong about one and done. Manny has the option for year two of the 2 year $45 million contract with the Dodgers and even Manny is not stupid or self centered enough to opt out of a guaranteed $20 million - or is he?
Well I guess this is just more Manny being Manny.
I have had my say. Now what do you think?
Manny Tests Positive!
Thursday May 7, 2009
Los Angeles Dodgers Left Fielder Manny Ramirez Tests Positive for a banned substance and is suspended for 50 games.
Now the weak excuses start. "My doctor gave it too me ... I didn't take steroids".
It makes you wonder why these guys think they have to lie. We know that they are juiced. Almost every great power hitter of the past decade has been juiced.
The guys now days trot out that tired old line that Manny tried to foist off today - "I’ve taken and passed about 15 drug tests over the past five seasons".
Come on guys. do you really think we are all that stupid. Steroids are taken on a three week cycle and you pretty much know when you are going to be tested each year. MLB testing is not like Olympic testing where the athletes are subject to random testing all YEAR long even out of competition and may get tested a dozen times or more in season.
Major league players only get tested once in spring training and twice during the season during a home stand. If you are serious about stopping steroid and other performance enhancing drug use you have to do year round testing.
Since steroids are not fat soluble you can take them all off season and up to a few weeks or even days before the testing and still come up clean if it is a urine test, which is what MLB uses, and not a blood test.
Folks, if you were wondering why Manny Ramirez suddenly had this incredible streak of success with the bat once he left Boston in 2008, you have your answer.
Was the delay in coming into camp this year really an attempt to get the steroids he used in the off season out of his system and nothing having to do with the money?
I do have a question for Major league Baseball. In other sports a team (like a relay team in track and swimming) has to forfeit wins if one athlete is caught cheating.
Why do major league baseball teams NOT have to forfeit games when a player is caught cheating?
The guys in the locker room will do a much better job of policing the use of performance enhancing drugs in baseball than you possibly can if they know that they may have to forfeit all the games after the positive test date if a team mate is caught using performance enhancing drugs.
So how about it Fehr and Selig? Are you serious about stopping steroid and performance enhancing drug use or is the drug testing you have now just a smoke screen to shut up the media and the general public?
Lets see some real year-round testing and TEAM penalties.
Then and only then will your sport be relatively free of this scourge.
I have had my say. Now what do you think.
Los Angeles Dodgers Left Fielder Manny Ramirez Tests Positive for a banned substance and is suspended for 50 games.
Now the weak excuses start. "My doctor gave it too me ... I didn't take steroids".
It makes you wonder why these guys think they have to lie. We know that they are juiced. Almost every great power hitter of the past decade has been juiced.
The guys now days trot out that tired old line that Manny tried to foist off today - "I’ve taken and passed about 15 drug tests over the past five seasons".
Come on guys. do you really think we are all that stupid. Steroids are taken on a three week cycle and you pretty much know when you are going to be tested each year. MLB testing is not like Olympic testing where the athletes are subject to random testing all YEAR long even out of competition and may get tested a dozen times or more in season.
Major league players only get tested once in spring training and twice during the season during a home stand. If you are serious about stopping steroid and other performance enhancing drug use you have to do year round testing.
Since steroids are not fat soluble you can take them all off season and up to a few weeks or even days before the testing and still come up clean if it is a urine test, which is what MLB uses, and not a blood test.
Folks, if you were wondering why Manny Ramirez suddenly had this incredible streak of success with the bat once he left Boston in 2008, you have your answer.
Was the delay in coming into camp this year really an attempt to get the steroids he used in the off season out of his system and nothing having to do with the money?
I do have a question for Major league Baseball. In other sports a team (like a relay team in track and swimming) has to forfeit wins if one athlete is caught cheating.
Why do major league baseball teams NOT have to forfeit games when a player is caught cheating?
The guys in the locker room will do a much better job of policing the use of performance enhancing drugs in baseball than you possibly can if they know that they may have to forfeit all the games after the positive test date if a team mate is caught using performance enhancing drugs.
So how about it Fehr and Selig? Are you serious about stopping steroid and performance enhancing drug use or is the drug testing you have now just a smoke screen to shut up the media and the general public?
Lets see some real year-round testing and TEAM penalties.
Then and only then will your sport be relatively free of this scourge.
I have had my say. Now what do you think.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Cha Seung Baek injures forearm
Sunday March 29, 2009
Padres starter Cha Seung Baek left the game in the 4th inning of today's game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at their new spring training facility in Glendale Arizona.
After the game it was announced that Baek injured the forearm of his throwing arm and the extent of the injury was not known. Padres staff said Beak may be sidelined for up to 10 days and will miss his first scheduled start of the regular season.
Baek is still expected to make the Padres starting rotation.
Padres starter Cha Seung Baek left the game in the 4th inning of today's game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at their new spring training facility in Glendale Arizona.
After the game it was announced that Baek injured the forearm of his throwing arm and the extent of the injury was not known. Padres staff said Beak may be sidelined for up to 10 days and will miss his first scheduled start of the regular season.
Baek is still expected to make the Padres starting rotation.
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