Signing Albert Pujols @ 10 yrs/$300 million = Suicide: Baseball Style

Wednesday February 15, 2011

Signing Albert Pujols to a $30 million per year contract
would be franchise suicide for the St Louis Cardinals.

Albert Pujols vs San Diego Padres

If the the St Louis Cardinals give in to Pujols (and many the fans and members of the media) demands for $30 million and 10 seasons, they will be effectively committing franchise suicide.

Why? Let me enumerate:
#1 - Even though he is Pujols, the best player in baseball, he is still human. His performance WILL decline. Possibly every year from this point forward, but certainly dramatically before a 10 year contract even reaches its half way point.

Will he be worth even 10 million per season when he is hitting 50-60 points lower and less than half the home runs at ages 37- 42? That was pretty close to the average drop from the peak performance ages of 26-28 prior to the steroid era.Yes .280-.290 with 15-20 hrs is still valuable, but 6 years of that production for $30 million per season? That would cripple even the Yankees.

#2 - Since the advent of free agency, no team has won the world series while having one player make 15% or more or its payroll. No team has MADE it to the World Series with one player making 20% or more of its payroll.

The Cardinals largest payroll ever was $99 million in 2008 and it was $94 million in 2010. At a payroll equaling their largest in franchise history, Pujols contract would account for over 30% per season. Even if they increased payrol by an astonishing 25% from 2010 levels to $117.5 million, Pujols salary would make account for 25.5% of the payroll with Halliday making up an additional 14.5%. So even with a 25% bump in total payroll, that is 40% in TWO players.

That is simply untenable. It would retard their ability to sign enough talent (internal - arbitration eligible, and external - free agents) to make them competitive AND cripple their ability to sign top prospects in the draft & international free agency. The Cardinals simply would not have the payroll flexibility to go out and get free agents to fill holes, sign their other good players to long term deals or build their farm system through the draft & international free agent signings.

#3 - Players get hurt. Even Albert Pujols gets hurt. See 2006 and 2008. As they get older, players get hurt more often.

When you are paying one player 20-30% of your total payroll you cannot afford for them to get hurt. You simply cannot afford to keep a good backup on the roster, so some replacement level schmuck will be taking the field if your superstar is out with an injury.

Holliday's $17 million contract was at the fringes of what a team like St Louis can afford and still stay competitive. If they sign Pujols to a $30 million per year contract regardless of length, they will be committing $47 million per season to 2 players. Nearly 50% of total payroll at 2010 levels or 40% IF they bump total payroll up by 25%. And that is a HUGE IF..

As it is the Cardinals have $33 million committed to those two in 2011. Another $49+ million is committed to 7 members of the 12 man pitching staff in 2011. $82 million overall for 9 players out of a projected $104 million payroll in 2011..

As it is they have no room for error. No room for injuries. No room for an off year. Everyone must compete at their peak and stay healthy for the Cardinals to have any hope of competing in the NL Central.

In 2012 the Cardinals currently have $63.3 committed to 7 players. Add Pujols is at $30 million and  they are over their 2010 payroll before putting another player on the field.

At a $100 million payroll in 2012, Cardinals would only have about $6.67 million to spend on 17 players. That is just slightly less than the current major league minimum. 17*$410k = $6.970 million


Even IF they bump the payroll 25%, they still would only have $23.67 million to sign 17 players. Hardly a way to build a powerhouse club worthy of having an Albert Pujols on it.

Padres not done with FA signings?

Wednesday February 17, 2010

In an interview with Bill Center of the San Diego Union Tribune today, Padres CEO Jeff Moorad said in answer to a question about the 2010 major league payroll, "We’ll head to spring training at about $41.5 million".

Since the Padres MLB payroll sits at $38.025 million as of today, reading Center's interview gave me hope that the Padres are not done with free agent signings.

Then I sat down for my evening reading of MLBTradeRumors.com and saw this:
Padres, Cardinals and Others interested in Felipe Lopez

Could it be possible that the Padres were really still looking to fill out the bench with a player like Felipe Lopez?

Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of Foxsports.com wrote in an article this evening that their sources  were saying 4 teams were in pursuit of Lopez and they included the Padres and Cardinals.

If GM John Mozeliak pulls the trigger on the signing it would be a return to St. Louis for Lopez as he played for the Cardinals in 2008. For the Cardinals Lopez would likely just be insurance in case shortstop Brendan Ryan does not recover well from his recent wrist surgery.

For the Padres Lopez would provide depth in the middle infield behind starters Everth Cabrera and David Eckstein. Prior to 2009, Cabrera had only a handful of at bats above the Low A level so the Padres cannot be sure how he will respond in 2010 and David Eckstein, while an great hitter in the clutch and an invaluable influence in the clubhouse and on the field, is 35 years old and on the downside of his career.

With Jerry Hairston Jr. already on board as a utility player, signing Lopez would give the Padres great depth and versatility on the bench.

The other teams rumored to have interest in Lopez include the Cleveland Indians and Houston Astros. Cleveland has two promising young players penciled in at 2B in Luis Valbuena and Jason Donald, and has been been shedding payroll not adding it. They may not have the money in their budget to sign Lopez even at the discounted rate he will likely be forced to take this late in the off season.

Houston has Kaz Matsui and his $5 million salary at 2B. It is doubtful that they are in the market to add payroll at that position.

So what do you think about the Padres chances to sign Lopez?  If the Padres DO sign Lopez, would you rather see him start or backup the middle infield?

Correia gets pounded

Saturday August 22, 2009

Kevin Correia once again demonstrated that he is what he is, a decent #4 or #5 pitcher on most major league staffs.

Even playing half his games in spacious Petco Park he is still giving up far too many home runs with men on base and his 4.46 ERA reflects that. He is league average in a park that favors pitchers. Not a good combination.

Hopefully next season he will learn to control his follow through so that he can be more consistent in his delivery and will be able to help Chris Young anchor a rotation that should include future ace Mat Latos, Tim Stauffer and Clayton Richard.

(That little pop to the left that his plant foot does on his follow through makes it harder to repeat his delivery and contributes to his pitches being up. Watch the replay of the game on the home runs and see if his left foot turns sharply towards 1st base as he is following through. I would be willing to bet it does.)

Tonight Correia gave up 5 earned runs on 10 hits and 2 walks with 2 home runs to the St Louis Cardinals in 5 innings pitched.

The Cardinals defeated the Padres for the 11th time in 12 games behind Chris Carpenter's 7 shut out innings of 3 hit ball. Matt Holliday's 3 run blast in the top of the 1st proved to be all the offense the Cardinals would need as they shut out the Padres for the 2nd time in 3 games.

The Padres offense, which had shown signs of improvements in games against other teams since the all star break, has been more anemic against the Cardinals than they have been overall this season.

Richard & defense sharp as Padres break losing streak

Friday August 21, 2009

Clayton Richard threw 6 shutout innings and Nick Hundley crushed a 3 run shot to lead the San Diego Padres to their first win over the St Louis Cardinals in 10 tries.

Richard allowed just 5 hits and 3 walks while striking outing 6 and lowered his ERA as a Padre to 3.67 to claim the win, his third straight decision.

After Albert Pujols narrowly missed catching a foul ball to shallow RF off Nick Hundley's bat in the 2nd, Hundley drove a pitch deep to LF to drive in Will Venable and Kyle Blanks. Kevin Kouzmanoff drove in Tony Gwynn with a single to center field in the 8th to pad the lead.

The Padres bullpen threw 3 perfect innings to preserve the win for Richard.

Looks like the Padres found a buyer for Khalil Greene

December 3, 2008

Joel Sherman of the NY Post is reporting that the Padres have found a taker in a trade for shortstop Khalil Greene.

Corey Brock of MLB.com has also posted today about the possibility of Greene being traded prior to the start of the Baseball Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, Nevada starting Monday.

Two teams have been mentioned in Hot Stove league rumors today, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Baltimore Orioles.

The St. Louis Cardinals are reportedly offering 2 pitching prospects, Mitchell Boggs and Tyler Herron for Greene.

The Orioles have been rumored to be offering 2 young pitching prospects as well, although at this point I have read nothing specific. Would Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta be asking for too much? It is Christmas after all.

Well, maybe it is but a man can dream can't he? How about Arrieta and Troy Patton?

I have had my say. What do you think?