Whats Next for the Padres?

Saturday January 30, 2010

So what is next for the Padres?

Well...They have been rumored to be interested in Orlando Hudson.

Hudson himself commented on the Padres interest in an interview with MLB.com's Bill Ladson.

"There is good progress going on every day," Hudson said. "I will sign soon enough. You can put it on the Internet and on TV. I'm going to sign. I can't say exactly when. It will not be long. I can't say if it's with the Nationals, San Diego or Cleveland. I can't say with whom. Something is getting done."

Yesterday Ladson commented on Twitter and in an MLB.com article that the Nationals are likely out of the chase for Hudson. In the article Ladson explains that the Nationals have offered Hudson just $3 million and he has asked for $9 to play there. He goes on to say that the Nationals are are now focused on signing Adam Dunn to an extension and will look to sign the much cheaper Adam Kennedy or find an internal solution at 2B instead.

As far as the money goes, I have read different columnists that have said Hudson is asking for anywhere from a 2 year $10 million deal (Ken Rosenthal) to $9 million for one season (Ladson, Phil Wood, Jon Heyman), but I believe Hudson would take a deal in the $4.5-$5.5 million range if it included an option for a 2nd season.

Hudson would be a perfect fit on the Padres.

While he is not the plus defender many think he is (average of -2.6 UZR the past 3 seasons) and does not have the sure hands of Eckstein (9 errors vs 2 in 2009), but he does have better range.

The biggest upgrade would be in terms of Hudson's offense. Hudson hit for decent average (.293 over the past 3 seasons with a 107 OPS+) and provides a little power (27 hr over past 3 seasons) While his offense would likely drop slightly with the move to the ultimate pitchers park at Petco, his type of line drive offense would play to the park.

The added bench depth from moving David Eckstein to a backup for both 2b and ss would give the Padres one of the deepest and most versatile benches in the major leagues.

While they are playing in Petco as it is currently configured the Padres will have to take advantage of the pitchers park by having good to great defense.

Two of the teams rumored to also be in on Hudson, the Reds and the Rockies are said to be the final two teams that Orlando Cabrera will be choosing between in the next few days. Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports said in a Twitter post that if the Rockies do not sign OCab they will likely turn to Melvin Mora to fill their middle infield needs instead of Hudson.

With the Nationals likely out of the running for Hudson and the Rockies and Reds looking elsewhere, that leaves the cash strapped Indians, the Twins and the Padres.

Where do you think Hudson ends up?

So what other needs do the Padres have?

To my way of thinking backup catcher is an area of need for the Padres. While they did trade for Dusty ryan and signed minor league defensive specialist Chris Stewart, the Padres really need a veteran that can be a teacher for the catcher they have appearantly chosen as their starter - nick Hundley.

The Padres have been rumored to be interested in Yorvit Torrealba, Brad Ausmus, Benji Molina, Miguel Olivo and several other catchers.

Most of the free agent catchers the Padres have reportedly been interested in have been signed already, but Torrealba is still on the market but likely would want more than the 40 or so starts and $1 million the Padres would likely be willing and able to offer. Torrealba reportedly turned down a 2 year $5.6 million contract to return to the Rockies.

Rod Barajas is another veteran catcher that is still on the market and that would fit in well on the Padres because of his defense and right handed power, but he is also rumored to be looking for a starting position.

My choice of the remaining free agent catchers would be Jose Molina. Jose, a lifetime backup, does not have the bat of his brother Benji or Torrealba, but he does bring plus defense and a veteran hand for a young pitching staff.

Likely the Padres will likely wait until close to the beginning of spring training to make any additional signings. The players still on the market are going to be signing for much less than the they were looking for when the off season started and the Padres will be able to come away with the bargains they need.

So what do you think will happen next for the Padres?

SABR Day in America

Saturday January 30, 2010

All across America the chapters of the Society for American Baseball Research are holding meetings today.
These meetings are open to the general public as well as the members of SABR.

The meeting for the Ted Williams Chapter of SABR in San Diego ended just minutes ago at Petco Park .

The participants got to hear from several great speakers including Josh Stein, Padres director of Baseball Operations and participate in a spirited Hot Stove discussion.

Padres Sign Jon Garland

Tuesday January 26, 2009

Padres sign Jon Garland

If you were wondering what was next for rookie Padres GM Jed Hoyer, then you have your answer today.

As was reported by Corey Brock of MLB.com and Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports via Twitter, the San Diego Padres signed southpaw starting pitcher Jon Garland to a one year deal for $4.7 million with a mutual option for 2011 that includes a $600,000 option. Basically 1 year, $5.3 million deal.

Garland split the 2009 season between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers while posting a 4.01 ERA and 204 IP over 33 starts.

It certainly looks like the Padres got the inning eating veteran pitcher they have been saying they were looking for since Garland has averaged over 200 IP per season since 2002. In my eyes Garland and his career 4.42 ERA, 4.72 FIP and matching K/9 is not a big improvement over the pitchers he would be displacing with the exception of proven durabilty.

Prior to this signing the Padres rotation was shaping up to be Chris Young, Kevin Correia, Mat Latos, Clayton Richard and 6 young pitchers fighting it out for the #5 slot..

With the addition of Garland to a sure spot in the rotation you have 7 young pitchers fighting for one spot on the roster instead of two.

Sure Spots in the rotation:
RHP Chris Young
RHP Jon Garland
RHP Kevin Correia
RHP Mat Latos

Fighting for #5 slot:
LHP Clayton Richard
RHP Tim Stauffer
LHP Wade LeBlanc
RHP Cesar Carrillo
LHP Cesar Ramos
RHP Sean Gallagher
LHP Aaron Poreda

If its any consolation, with a WAR of around 2.0 the last 3 seasons according to Fangraphs (which is worth about a $7 million in the FA market according to Tom Tango), the Padres did get Garland at a very fair price and the Padres AAA Portland Beavers squad may have the best pitching staff in the minor leagues.

So what does this mean for the Padres rotation in 2010 and going forward?

1) The staff has incredible depth with 7 guys including two former top 100 prospects (Poreda & Gallagher) and three former Padres 1st round draft picks (Stauffer, Carrillo and Ramos) fighting it out for just one spot in the rotation.

2) For the first time since 2007 the Padres staff has at least two guys in Garland and Correia that are likely to throw about 200 innings. If he wins a spot and stays healthy, Richard may also approach 200 IP.

3)  The Padres signed Garland to what is essentially a 1 year, $5.3 million deal so it does not block any of the young pitchers long term.

4) If Chris Young pitches up to the level we have seen when he was healthy in years past and some of the young pitchers like Latos, Richard, Poreda, Sean Gallagher and former first round pick Tim Stauffer step it up this season, then the Padres have a choice of trading either Chris Young or Garland after the All Star break to pick up even more prospects.

Conversely, if CY does not pitch well and the team is stuggling as they near the All Star break, we may see Garland, CY and Bell all traded away along with franchise player Adrian Gonzalez before the trading deadline on July 31, 2010.

All in all, while he not the high upside impact pitcher signing I was hoping for, Garland is a solid inning eating veteran pitcher the Padres have said they wanted for the middle of their rotation and he signed for much less than they would have had to spend for an injury prone high upside guy like Sheets or Bedard.

With this signing of Garland and a $2.9 million salary for Scott Hairston (who has not come to terms with the Padres yet), the Padres 2010 Payroll stands at $37.725 million.

While Corey Brock is claiming on a Twitter post that the Padres have nothing left to spend, by my estimation they still have $2.275 million left just to GET to the $40 million Moorad and Hoyer have claimed was the minimum they were going to spend.


Do you get the feeling that someone on the Padres is not being totally honest about their 2010 payroll? If it stays as it is it will be the smallest payroll in MLB. And now they seem to be hedging on even keeping their promise to the fans to have it "start with a 4".

For some reason I don't think they are done. I think Hoyer and Moorad are playing this close to the vest and have their hand in on other players. After all, there were no rumors of the Padres being in on Garland until after they already had an agreement in hand.

So hold on to your hats, we may all be surprised by the next signing.

I have had my say. Now tell us what do you think of the Padres signing Jon Garland?