I’m Baaaaack

I’m Baaaaack

My last couple of posts to this blog were in mid-2012:

Padres GM Byrnes Compounds Mistakes

(Got a LOT of flack for this post, but EVERYTHING I wrote turned out to be right on the money. Can I say I told you so?)

and

2012 NL West Predictions

(I blew the rest of the NL West and hit my Padres squarely on the nose)

Why I left

Earlier in that year, my new employers had asked me to defer from writing and commenting publicly about baseball and after ranting about Byrnes, I hung up my quill.

For the 6th consecutive year, I’m spending my Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year covering the Winter Leagues and Serie Caribe. The constant travel, 204 days away living from a suitcase in the past 365, has started to take a toll on my body and my psyche.

So I’ve decided to retire from actively working in the game this coming spring and turn my attention to my family and to once again annoying Padres fans everywhere with the facts and the truth.

When I’ll Be Back Writing Again Consistently

I am under contract through March 2016, so I will likely not starting writing much about baseball other than an occasional rant about the Padres until then.

You may see a small amount of commentary about Serie Caribe and Padres Spring Training if I have some time and can get it vetted by my current employer. Mustn’t give up secrets you know.

I’m really looking forward to talking baseball through this blog and my Twitter account.

If there is anything you would like me to address, let me know in the comments below.

~Web

Padres GM Byrnes compounds mistakes by extending Quentin for 3 yrs/$30 million

Padres Josh Byrnes compounds earlier mistakes by signing LF Carlos Quentin to a 3 yr/$30 million extension

In the middle of Vicky Santo's stirring comments during the induction speech for her husband Ron here in Cooperstown a member of our front office leans over to me and says, "what is Byrnes thinking"? 

Earlier in the day my wife had pried my phone and tablet from my hands and handed me a camera and her grandfather's Cubs cap. "Its a day to be a fan" she said, so I had no idea what he was talking about.

I had to wait until I got back to the hotel last night to learn that Josh Byrnes had made his third critical mistake regarding Carlos Quentin.

Byrnes' Critical Mistakes

1st - He traded a young Quentin to the White Sox as GM of the Diamondbacks

2nd - He traded two very good prospects (Castro and Hernandez) to the White Sox for an older and injury prone Quentin as the new GM of the Padres

Now, to compound those two huge mistakes, Byrnes gives Carlos Quentin a 3 year $30 million extension with the San Diego Padres.

2013 - $9.5 million

2014 - $9.5 million

2015 - $8.0 million

$3 million buyout of $10 million 2016 option

For a low budget team expected to have a $60-70 million payroll in 2013, Byrnes gives a 3 year deal that will take up 15+ percent of the teams total payroll to:

• a player that is so injury prone that he has not had a season where he started more than 103 games in the field since 2008 
• a player so bad defensively that he has not completed more than 83 games in a season since 2008 & has recorded a -37.7 UZR over that period.
• a player with a .248 batting average since the start of the 2009 season

You also have to remember that Quentin is more expensive than just his salary. Someone else has to play the 60 + games he will miss due to injuries each season and the 180 + innings per season he will be out of games because of his bad defense and you have to pay those players too.

Byrnes' Guarantees

Byrnes has guaranteed that for 60 or more games each of the next 3 seasons the Padres will wonder who will be playing in LF. (Quentin is hurt for 1/3 of each season)

Byrnes has guaranteed that the Padres will have one of, if not THE worst LF defense in the league for 2/3 of each of the next 3 seasons. (Quentin is hurt for 1/3 of each season)


Byrnes has also guaranteed that the Padres have no money to sign any real threats with the bat by tying up more than 15% of the payroll in one player. (You cant be a threat when you are on the DL 1/3 of each season and have to be removed in late innings of games for a defensive replacement.)


Byrnes has guaranteed that the Padres will be saddled with Quentin; an expensive, injury prone, poor hitting, defensive liability for the next 3 seasons because they gave him a full no-trade clause.

Carlos Quentin, Bust

Face it Padres fans, Quentin is a bust so far. He has hit just .217 with a .359 slg since a 6 game hot streak ended on 6/5. This after spending the first 2 full months of the season on the DL. 


At his current pace, IF he is able to play the rest of the season without a trip to the DL, Quentin will hit for a .232 batting average with 16-17 home runs. 


His defense ranks 25th in the league with a .982 fielding percentage and -2 DRS this season and is the worst in MLB since the start of the 2009 season. Even Jesus Guzman has been better in the outfield and that says volumes about Quentin's dearth of skills with the glove.


The question you must ask is what is a player worth that will play 100 games per season and hit .230-.240 with 16-18 home runs while playing horrible defense? 


Regardless of Byrnes attempt at justification for signing him, Quentin is not a threat with the bat and he is not protecting the other Padres players in the lineup because:

• #1 he was on the DL the 1st 2 months of the season 
• #2 he is not hitting for either average or power in the past month and a half.

Now, I understand that no other MLB team wants to give up good prospects for Quentin and with good reason (those enumerated above and fact that any team trading for him would not get a draft pick if he left in FA), but that is no reason for Byrnes to compound his mistakes by hamstringing the team with Quentin for 3 more seasons.


The sandwich pick the Padres would have received for making Quentin a qualifying offer in arbitration and then watching him walk in free agency is likely worth more and will be MUCH cheaper than 3 seasons of Quentin in a Padres uniform.


If you get the idea I don't like this signing you are right. I didn't like the trade that brought Quentin to the Padres in the first place and this just piles stupid on top of stupid.


The only good that may come of this is that the Padres are showing fans a willingness to hold onto players after years having to trade away good players because of payroll considerations during the Moores' divorce.


It may also mean they will be trading or non-tendering Will Venable, who will be eligible for arbitration for the 2nd time in 2013 and due a raise from his current $1.475 million even though his performance continues to lag far behind his potential. Too much money for a backup outfielder.


I have had my say, now what do you think about the Padres extending Carlos Quentin?


Websoulsurfer

The Websoulsurfer Predictions for the NL West

My Predictions for the NL West  in 2012

Opening Day for the Padres is less than 18 hours away and here is my first post of the new season. Over the next few days I am going to give my predictions for won-loss records, division and wild card winners, award winners and even Padres players production.

Lets start with the won loss records and my pick to win the NL West.

Arizona Diamondbacks -  93-69
Colorado Rockies - 87-75
San Francisco Giants - 87-75
Los Angeles Dodgers - 81-81
San Diego Padres - 76-86

The Reasoning:

The Arizona Diamondbacks combine a good young pitching staff with some great prospects ready at the top levels of their farm system with a good young position players.

• Kennedy, Hudson, Collmenter, Cahill and Saunders as the starting 5 with Bauer ready 
• Upton, Young, Kubel, Parra in the OF
• Goldschmitt, Hill, Drew (eventually), Roberts across the IF with Montero behind the plate

Best in the division top to bottom.

The Colorado Rockies are my surprise pick. For one reason - veteran leadership. This team had the talent to win in 2011, but they fell apart under pressure. Tulo and Gonzales are two of the best young players in the league. Helton was hurt and he is a real quiet guy. Not the leader they needed.

In the offseason they added three guys that can not only get the job done, they are great clubhouse guys. Now they have Jamie Moyer, the ageless wonder, out there in the starting rotation to provide an example of what it takes for the pitching staff. They also added Scutaro & Cuddyer to provide the example for the position players.

I still don't think they have enough to win the division, but they will surprise alot of people. Think Padres of 2010.

The San Francisco Giants do not have enough offense or enough depth to compete for the division title. Yes, they have an outstanding top end to their starting pitching corp with The Freak, Cain and Bumgarner. After that it drops off precipitously to Zito and ???. They dont even know who will step up enough to fill the #5 slot.

Like the starting pitching, the offense is great at the top with The Panda and Posey, but falls off quickly after those two with no one in the wings to fill spots in the batting order when injuries strike.

• Pagan, Cabrera, Huff, Schierholtz across the OF. 
• Bolt, Burris, Crawford, Sandoval across the infield with Posey behind the plate part time. Looks like he will get time at 1B this season. 

Just not enough to win in a consistently tough NL West.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are a one trick pony. They have 3 great players and 21 scrubs on their roster. Kemp, Ethier and Kershaw are good enough to keep them out of the cellar, but not much more.

Their new ownership group has deep pockets, but they have invested 2.15 BILLION so far in the team and have another 350-500 million still to invest in the ballpark renovations.This team will get worse before it gets better.

The San Diego Padres are an extremely young team that the front office tried to graft in a couple of veterans that just dont fit.

In Stauffer, Volquez, Luebke, Richard, Moseley. (I know Stauffer is not starting opening day, but he is the Padres number 1) the Padres have a good young pitching staff with a very good young prospect in the pen (Bass) and at least 4 pitchers within a year of making the staff. Kelly, Weiland, Erlin and Sampson will be ready soon and will slot somewhere in the middle of that rotation - #2 to #4.

Their pen was totally made over in the last year with Street, Cashner and Owings taking the place of Bell, Adams and LeBlanc. i believe the pen will be just as strong with more depth since Thatcher is healthy, 2 members of that pen from last season, Spence and Hamren, will be in the minors this season and two others with huge talent, Brach and Boxberger, will start the year in AAA.

• Guzman, Maybin, Denorfia, Venable across the OF. Quentin and Blanks will also play PT in the OF. Quentin because of current injuries, Blanks because of past injuries.
• Alonso, Hudson, Bartlett, Headley in the infield with Hundley behind the plate.

The future is bright. The present is glum.

Those are my thoughts, What are yours?

Websoulsurfer

Padres Pick 3 Losers to Fill Out 25 Man Roster

The Padres pick Owings, Hermida and Parrino to fill last 3 spots on 25 man roster

Fair Warning. 6 hours on planes followed by two Arrogant Bastards and I am a little riled up.

I am so fucking sick of teams picking who is going to be on the team by who has more experience or by financial considerations.

WTF happened to the best player getting the spot?

With ALL THREE choices for the last 3 spots on the 25 man roster, the Padres picked the WORSE player. The one that absolutely sucks.

• The Padres added Owings, who fucking sucks
• Hermida, who fucking sucks
• Parrino who not only fucking sucks but has no upside 

To make matters worse they have had to put Jose De Paula, on the restricted list and drop at least one other player from the 40 man roster, which means they will both be subject to being claimed.
Fucking stupid. Really fucking stupid.

And what excuses are the Padres trying to foist on fans for being so unbelievably stupid?

"Parrino is used to being a backup in the minors so he will be mentally more prepared to be a backup in the majors." 
Lets see if I get this correct. He sucked so bad that he couldn't even start in the MINORS, so you are going to give him the backup role behind TWO injury prone players that you KNOW are not going to play 250 combined games? WTF are you thinking?

Here is the real reason you lying sack of garbage. Cabrera will be eligible for arbitration if he spends the entire season in the Majors. THAT is why Parrino is on the team now.

"Owings can be a long reliever."
WTF is that? WHO THE FUCK CARES that he can be a long reliever if he is going to pitch like he has recently? The guy is a loser. LOSER! 7.62 ERA and got WORSE as camp went on instead of better with 7 hits and 4 runs in his final two outings. 2.1 ip, 7 hits, and 4 earned runs. That's nearly an 18.00 ERA. 18!

Even Worse, Owings has an era over 5.00 over the past 4 years of regular season play. WTF is there to like about him? Please don't even TRY to trot out some fucking excuse that he can hit. ANY of the Padres young pitchers can be a long reliever and do better than a 5.00 ERA. Bass, Kelly or Weiland would have done great in that role. Even Wade Fucking LeBlanc could do that AND he hits better than Owings AND he was cheaper.

No fucking excuse for Owings making this team. None.

"The 80 year old veteran we brought in for locker room presence is hurt"
Don't even get me started on Hermida. That bum hit .211/.272/.354 for 4 teams over the past 2 seasons. Why 4 teams? He fucking sucks, that's why.

Hermida had a good spring training, when it doesnt count, just like he did the last two years in spring training

(.450

/.500

/.650

/1.150 and

.342 /.458 /.632 /1.090 respectively)

and then once the regular season starts he sucks. Every year. 

AND HE IS GETTING WORSE!!!!!!!! 

I thought the point of the game was to WIN, not to put the worst fucking possible team on the field because they are "used to being a backup" or "can be a long reliever." I guess not in the La-La Land they call Padres baseball.

So who DIDN'T Make the Team So These LOSERS Can Play?

Brad Brach
Brach had not only a great spring, but he has tremendous upside. He BELONGS on the team.

Everth Cabrera
Cabrera was the starter here for a 90 win team, he has upside, Black even said he was the better player, and while he sucked in spring ball, is a better fielder, hitter and baserunner than Parrino. He belongs.

James Darnell
All he did was hit .295/.338 in spring ball after a cup of coffee in 2011 where he hit better than Hermida did.

Come on Padres, if you want to win, let the kids play! Stop giving us washed up veterans and sorry excuses.

Enough from me. Tired of sitting on the side watching these morons run this team. To think they used to write my paycheck. Thank goodness I just have to live in San Diego, not work for these guys anymore. Maybe a good ownership group will come in and save Padres fans like RAK. We can still dream of Mark Cuban buying the team right?.

The Hammer

Padres Quentin Injures Right Leg - Out 4-6 weeks

San Diego Padres GM Byrnes made a huge, and to the low budget Padres very expensive, mistake in trading for Carlos Quentin.

The prospects he sent to the White Sox notwithstanding, Quentin had averaged only 98 games per season in the field for the White Sox over the past three seasons. Nothing indicated he would be any more healthy his year. In fact, the pattern of being injury prone was in place like a Huge Red Flag and Byrnes simply ignored the warning signs. Byrnes wanted to make up for another huge mistake he made while in Arizona in trading away a then 24 year old Quentin and in doing so compounded his mistake.

Padres Carlos Quentin Injures Right Leg - Out 4-6 Weeks

Now Quentin has injured his right leg and will undergo arthroscopic surgery on Monday. Quentin is expected to miss 4-6 weeks and at the very minimum, the first 2 weeks of the regular season. More likely he will return to the Padres lineup in the last week of April or early May.

To add insult to Quentin's injury, it is to his right leg, the drive leg for a right handed hitter, and will rob him of power all season. Power is the only thing Quentin has to offer to the Padres as he has been the very worst defensive outfielder in major league baseball over the past 3 seasons with a -38.2 UZR.

Those of you who follow me know that I am not a big fan of defensive metrics like UZR unless there is at least 3 years of data to analyze. Looking at just one season of data is totally useless. Well we have three years of Quentin's defensive contributions to base a good determination of his ability in the field on and it says what our eyes have been telling us, he is horrendous with the glove.

Now about what the Padres are paying for Byrnes attempt to redeem his earlier mistake:

• $7.025 million or more than 13% of the overall 2012 Padres payroll
• Two prospects that now rank in the top 20 for the White Sox organization and who will contribute at the major league level in 2012 for the South Siders. (Castro is #4 or #5 depending on the list)

So the bottom line of Byrnes screw up is that Quentin will give the Padres under 100 games of mediocre power and atrocious defense and then Quentin will leave in free agency after the season.

The GM of the team can afford to make mistakes like this when you have a $100+ million payroll, but in San Diego it can be fatal to your hopes of a decent season.

Byrnes hubris in trying to redeem himself for an earlier mistake and Quentin's continuing injury problems may have torpedoed San Diego chances at a .500 season before the season even begins.

I've had my say about Byrnes, Quentin and the San Diego Padres.

Now its your turn. What do you think?

Padre's Byrnes Trades 1B for Reliever

Saturday January 7, 2012

So let me get this straight.

Padres GM Josh Byrnes trades away:

A 22 year old prospect that was a centerpiece of the trade that sent Adrian Gonzales to the Red Sox and who grades out as a future star (if not All Star) quality everyday position player who crushed at AAA at age 21 in 2011

For:

A 25 year old reliever with a history of shoulder problems?

WTF?

Byrnes has made the cardinal mistake of anointing a 25 year old prospect as the Padres starting 1B after a cup of coffee in Cincinnati (one of the best hitting parks in baseball) and sends away a young 1B who struggled when he was called up too early.

In his last trade, Byrnes traded away two prospects likely to make the White Sox staff in 2012 for a oft injured, defensive liability with mediocre power who is very expensive in Padres terms and who is a free agent after the 2012 season.

On a team that has has a very low payroll so has to live and die on locking up young players and keeping a deep pool of prospects, Byrnes has traded away his best young pitcher, his best position player prospect and two good pitching prospects and brought in only two injury prone players in Cashner and Quentin.

These last two trades would make sense only as the final pieces needed for a playoff run by a team full of proven talent. The Padres are far from full of proven talent.

Time will tell if the Padres can even make it out of last place in 2012, let alone contend.

I am starting to think that Byrnes is not such a smart general manager. 

Padres GM Byrnes makes STUPID trade for Quentin

San Diego Padres GM Josh Byrnes is out of his f'ing mind.

He has just made what may be the single worst trade in the history of the Padres franchise sending Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez to the Chicago White Sox for OF/DH Carlos Quentin.
Yes, that is a bold statement, but lets take a look at the facts of this trade.

What did the Padres give up?

Byrnes traded away two good young pitchers in Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez that will likely make the White Sox staff in 2012. If Castro is not in rotation in 2012, he will be in 2013 at the latest. 

Castro was rated #2 or #3 in the Padres organization in both 2010 & 2011 (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and John Sickels) and is widely thought of as a prospect with #2-#3 type starter potential at the major league level. Castro may not be top prospect in the PADRES incredibly deep system for 2012, but would rank in top 5 for White Sox today and will likely make the Sox staff by end of 2012. Castro could be a #2 - #3 starter on the Sox staff in 2013.

Hernandez is a  22 year old left handed control artist who had a decent chance of making the Padres pen at some point in 2012 and will likely break camp in the pen for the reliever deficient Sox. 

How about Carlos Quentin?  

Well Quentin is:

1. Extremely Injury Prone
   (Quentin has NEVER played over 131 games & averaged 120 games over past 4 seasons)
2. A Low Average Hitter
   (He hit .257 for the White Sox playing in one of best hitters parks in baseball. That translates to hitting .223 if he was a Padre over past 4 seasons.) 
3. An All or Nothing Hitter
   (17.4% strike outs vs just 7% walks but a .245 ISO)
4. A Free Agent at the end of the 2012 Season 
5. Relatively Expensive
   (Quentin will likely be paid $7-8 million in 2012. His 3rd & last year of arbitration)
6. An Absolute Butcher on Defense
   (Quentin has been THE ABSOLUTE WORST DEFENSIVE OUTFIELDER in baseball with more than 2500 innings played over past 3 seasons.)

So Padres got a one year rental of a mediocre player for two good prospects who will likely contribute for White Sox at Major League level in 2012. Byrnes is obviously trying to make up for his mistake of sending a CHEAP Quentin away from Arizona years ago. In the process he makes a HUGE mistake trading FOR him now.

The Padres will not contend in 2012 and adding Quentin wont change that. Quentin will go away after 2012 since the Padres cant afford to keep an expensive DH. The $7-8 million Byrnes will have to spend on Quentin is ALOT of money for the low payroll Padres and it is being spent on as bad of a fit for that ballpark as you can possibly find. 

WTF is Byrnes thinking.

I have had my say, now I would like to hear what YOU have to say about this trade.

- Web 

Edit: Changed Byrnes to Quentin in appropriate places.

What the Changes in the MLB CBA Really Mean

The Rich Get Richer

Bud Selig and the big market owners at MLB have put a hatchet in the back of the Small and Mid market teams with this new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

The small market teams have been all but marginalized. They will no longer have any opportunity to compete under the new rules.

Changes in Arbitration Eligibility Rules

Players with less than three years of major league service will now have to have 2 years 86 days of service and be in the top 20% of the league in production. (Previously it was 17%)

All but the largest market teams will now hold their best prospects back to after the All Star break instead of early June to ensure they don’t get 86 days in that year.

Changes in Free Agency Compensation

Since they no longer lose a draft pick the rich will get richer. The Yankees, Red Sox, etc… can now sign Free Agents without losing anything unless the other team makes a $12 million offer to the FA.

It’s a crock. The old system didn’t work, but this is worse. Now small market teams are strictly farm clubs for the big market teams.

It marks the end of Tampa Bay’s ability to compete in the AL East. Once their current crop of players and prospects reach FA they will never compete again. IT ends ANY small markets teams possibility of contending. Under the old system at least you got something when you could no longer afford a free agent. Now you get nothing. Selig said bend over small market teams and take it like a Sandusky victim.

Changes in First Year Draft

More of the rich get ting richer.

Now teams that were horrible last year can no longer afford to pay big money for a great prospect (see Gerrit Cole) or they risk not being able to draft many players or have to pay a tax they can ill afford to pay for going over the line. 

The Yankees, Red Sox, etc... can afford to pay a luxury tax, but if a team like the Pirates or the Rays want to pay big money for a couple of exceptional prospects, they risk not being to sign other prospects prospects down the line.

Selig has finally turned all small market teams into nothing more than glorified farm teams for the Yankees and the Red Sox.

Congratulations Bud. You have finally killed competition in the sport completely.

RIP MLB.  

Out in Left Field

Padres make offer to Rafael Furcal

Wednesday November 16, 2011

According to sources at the MLB General Managers meetings in Milwaukee, the San Diego Padres made a two offer to 34 year old former Dodgers and Cardinals shortstop Rafael Furcal. While the exact terms are not known, the offer was reportedly for 2 years/$15 million with an option year.

Furcal's agent, Paul Kinzer has been pretty firm about wanting 3 years, but will likely take two years with an option. Especially if it is an option with a vesting clause.

The Padres are one of 6 teams that have shown serious interest in Furcal.

Interesting move to say the least for a low budget team not expected to contend in 2012.

Closers that Blow Saves Suck

The Definition of a Great Closer:

To be considered the best closer in the game of baseball
you need to do one simple thing, 

Save the highest percentage of games.

It doesn't matter what the velocity is on your fastball.
It doesn't matter how many guys you strike out per nine innings.
It doesnt matter what your ERA or SIERA was.
It doesn't matter what your WHIP or FIP or WAR  was.

The ONLY thing that matters 
is that when you team has a lead in the 8th or 9th inning
that you keep the other team from scoring MORE runs than your lead
with the highest regularity.

THAT is the job of a closer.

With that in mind:
If you think Craig Kimbrel was Closer of the Year in the NL , you are a flipping idiot.

That piece of shit blew 8 games out of 54 attempts and 3 of his final 6 opportunities. Kimbrel is the singular reason his team, the Atlanta Braves, were not in the playoffs. 85% saves is simply not worth being in the conversation for NL Closer of the Year.

Marmol and Cordero are not even worth mentioning they were so bad at their job.

If you think  ANYONE besides
Axford - 96%,
Putz - 92%,
Bell  - 90%, or
Storen - 90%
is even in the conversation for best closer you are a moron. Plain and simple.

Those guys had the highest % of saves in the NL.

THAT singular thing is what makes them the best of 2011.

So bring it bitches. I want to hear what all you Kimbrel kiss asses have to say.

Out In Left Field

Another year, another change.

Guest Post from The Hammer

Another year, another change.   

The Padres rolled out their new uniforms yesterday and the first thought that came to mind was… why?  Again?  Why?  Fans always complain that they don’t want to buy players jerseys because they don’t stay long, well why would anyone want to buy Padres jerseys if they are just going to become outdated sooner rather than later. 

I understand the bring back the brown crowd and it appears that the Padres tried to give them something to chew on by bringing back the swinging friar, but he’s blue.   

At first glance it appears to be much more like a Dodgers logo than a Padres logo.   

The new baseball logo has a vintage feel to it, but it also has a Dodgers feel, as you can see here.

Personally, I care much more about the product on the field, but when it looks like we have become the Dodgers south, I take personal offense.  Ownership wonders why the fan base is fickle, but this new ownership doesn’t understand that the changes they make continue to frustrate the fan base.  This team lacks identity. 

I know the Padres aren’t the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Cubs, or any other storied franchise, but forcing things down the fans throats they don’t want (insert Enberg jab here) is not going to help.  I know that some people out there will always just put a smile on and write something positive, but screw that.  The Padres marketing department has been a mess since this new regime took over, from awkward promo days, to being overly controlling with players, finally to a branding program that has changed direction at every turn. 

This organization needs to stop pouring energy and resources into petty things like uniform changes and buying minor league teams and start putting a quality product on the field.  In San Francisco it’s Halloween all year around, it’s ugly, but the team and the fans own it.  It is their identity and the Giants show the fans they care about winning. 

When Moorad comes out and tells fans that he is going to run this like a business, I respect that, but as a fan, I hate it.  Changing uniforms looks like a money grab, taking the revenue sharing money and not applying it to payroll looks like a money grab, and trying to have the TV deal front loaded looks like a money grab.  Money money money money

I can’t blame Jed for leaving; this was always a stepping stone job for him, similar to how Moorad used Arizona as a stepping stone and will eventually do the same our beloved Padres.  It’s a shame that as fans we have to deal with someone more concerned with turning a profit than winning games. 

Personally, I’m not a fan of the changes because as much as marketing would like to tell me they are part of Padres history, the brown was the part that fans wanted back.  If this ownership wants to look like the Dodgers south, that is their right as an ownership group.  I’ll try not to take it personal, after all, it’s just business.  

The Hammer

Guest Writers @ Websoulsurfer

Over the next month you will begin to see articles from several guest writers at Websoulsurfer.

Some talking about San Diego Padres baseball, some about MLB and some about other subjects near and dear to baseball fans.

Like me, these guys are looking for a place to express themselves without endangering their jobs.

They will be posting under pseudonyms  - "The Hammer", Scouting America, Out in Left Field, and Your SABR Daddy may be a few of the names you see.

Enjoy.

Goose Gossage Award - Baseball Bloggers Alliance

Thursday October 13, 2011

First I want to apologize for not posting much this season.

My new employment has kept me on the road much of the year wand watching minor league baseball instead of the 100+ major league games I have attended in years past.

Recently my employers have asked all of us to not blog until we had a new boss in place. While that is not completed yet, I did not want to let down the BBA by neglecting to vote for the Goose Gossage Award for the best reliever in the NL.

Without further ado my vote for the Best reliever in the NL goes to John Axford of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Not only did Axford lead the NL in saves and save percentage, he was also amongst the lowest in ERA, FIP and xFIP. His LOB% was the best amongst closers and his k/9 was near the top as well.

An honorable mention goes to Heath Bell of the San Diego Padres who has been arguably the best closer in baseball over the past three years leading in nearly every category.

In 2011 he performed exceptionally well recording 43 saves against just 5 blown saves while pitching for a team that gave him sporadic opportunities at best, often going 5 or more days between outings, and for a team was out of contention by the end of May. Those are tough conditions to battle for a closer.

J.J Putz made a complete u-turn in his career to record 45 saves for the Arizona Diamondbacks and desreves at least a mention here. Too many of his saves were 1 or 2 batters with a 3 run lead to merit real consideration as top reliever in the league. not enough high leverage situations.

According to the BBA rules I am supposed to grade these guys on a point system so here goes:
5 points - John Axford Milwaukee Brewers
3 points - Heath Bell - San Diego Padres
1 point  - JJ Putz - Arizona Diamondbacks

If I was GM, what would I do to fix the Cubs?

Sunday August 28, 2011

If I was GM, what would I do to fix the Cubs?

Right now, even though they have millions coming off the books for 2012, the Cubs are saddled with $86.6 million in contracts for 2012 for just 8 players (including Ramirez whose option will be picked up). $52 million of that money is for 3 decidedly mediocre players – Zambrano, Dempster and Soriano.  5 teams with better records than the Cubs spent less than that amount on their entire team in 2011.

With no changes the team will have a payroll of over $100 million after signing their arbitration eligible players or replacing them with league minimum salaries.

The team has no realistic shot at competing in 2012 without overspending in a sparse free agent landscape. Yes they could make a splash and spend $25+ million to sign Pujols or Fielder to a long term contract, but that would only be a PR move as one player cannot turn around either the win/loss or the culture of this organization.

So what would I do if I was the GM of the Cubs?

#1 – Create a long term plan for the organization

For years the Cubs have been flying by the seat of their pants with no real plan for the future. They have been relying on deep pockets and big revenue to pay exorbitant salaries to too many mediocre free agents.  Its time to build from within for long term success.

#2 - Jettison Soriano & Zambrano - Some playoff bound team would like Soriano’s power bat off the bench and would give a 2^nd tier prospect for him. The Cubs would have to eat more than half his salary of $57 million over the next 3 years to get anything back, but this is a case of addition by subtraction and would be worth it. ($18 million per year plus $1 million per season of signing bonus)

Zambrano will be extremely difficult to deal and not only because of the $19 million he is owed in 2012. He is a cancer in the clubhouse and most teams are not willing to take on that kind of problem regardless of salary. I still believe the Cubs can dump him while paying a big chunk of his salary to take on an underperforming player from another team. Get it done NOW.

#3 – Hire more scouts. The Cubs have one of the smallest scouting departments in baseball. You cannot build a quality system that will consistently produce major league talent if you are not able to take a good look at the talent available.

#4 – Commit to getting younger

This is a very OLD team, one of the oldest in baseball. If not for the two kids in the middle infield, every starter in the field would be 32 or over. Here are a few suggestions.

A – Trade Carlos Pena, Marlon Byrd, Reed Johnson, John Grabow, Rodrigo Lopez and any other older moving parts that are not part of your plan for the immediate future. 

B – Matt Garza is the youngest healthy starting pitcher (25 year old Andrew Cashner has been on the DL with rotator cuff issues since his 1^st start of the season) and there is little in terms of quality arms in the farm system that are even near ready to join the rotation. Sign Garza to a 3 year deal that buys out his 1^st year of Free agency. 

Face the fact that Wells and Coleman are simply not good enough to run out there every 5^th day.  Wells is regressing under the tutelage of Riggins. Coleman is a AAA pitcher with no upside.

Carpenter, McNutt, Dollis and Whiteknack are coming, but don’t expect much help from any of them until late next year. Trade away some veterans like Dempster, Lopez, Grabow and Zambrano (even if you eat most of his contract) to re-stock the farm.

C – Play Colvin, Campana (& LaHair once you trade Pena) daily for the rest of the season. Bring up Brett Jackson to start the 2012 season and bring in some mid level talent as place holders until Josh Vitters and the few other good position player prospects you have are ready. Use the money saved in scouting, International Free Agency and next season’s draft.

#5– Get a real closer. Marmol is not a closer and all his blown saves are disheartening for the team. Put him back in a setup role and find someone with heart. With Balls.

#7 – Quade, Riggins and Strode go at the end of the season. The culture within the Cubs team and organization as a whole is rotted to the core. Zambrano is a symptom of a more endemic sickness.

What is happening with the pitching on this team is a travesty. Riggins & the rest of the staff have ruined the confidence and mechanics of the younger pitchers. In fact Jaramillo may be the only member of the coaching staff I would keep.

#7 – Non Tender Hill and Baker – they are older, non performing but likely to get huge raises in their 3^rd year of arbitration. You can sign others at league minimum that can recreate their performance.

FA Salaries that are truly being shed

·        Pena – $10,000,000

·        Grabow - $4,800,000

·        Wood - $1,500,000

·        Johnson - $900,000

Arbitration Eligible Cubbies – Projected increase in salaries to sign = $8+ million

·        Garza – made $5,950,000 and due a big raise in 3^rd year of eligibility – likely to $10 million

·        Soto – made $3,000,000 and due a large raise in 3^rd year of eligibility – likely to $5 million

·        Baker – made $1,175,000 and due a large raise in 3^rd year of eligibility – likely to $2+ million

·        Hill – made $850,000 and due a large raise in 3^rd year of eligibility

·        Dewitt – 1^st year of eligibility

·        Wells - 1^st year of eligibility