He has just made what may be the single worst trade in the history of the Padres franchise sending Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez to the Chicago White Sox for OF/DH Carlos Quentin.
Yes, that is a bold statement, but lets take a look at the facts of this trade.
What did the Padres give up?
Byrnes traded away two good young pitchers in Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez that will likely make the White Sox staff in 2012. If Castro is not in rotation in 2012, he will be in 2013 at the latest.
Castro was rated #2 or #3 in the Padres organization in both 2010 & 2011 (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and John Sickels) and is widely thought of as a prospect with #2-#3 type starter potential at the major league level. Castro may not be top prospect in the PADRES incredibly deep system for 2012, but would rank in top 5 for White Sox today and will likely make the Sox staff by end of 2012. Castro could be a #2 - #3 starter on the Sox staff in 2013.
Hernandez is a 22 year old left handed control artist who had a decent chance of making the Padres pen at some point in 2012 and will likely break camp in the pen for the reliever deficient Sox.
How about Carlos Quentin?
Well Quentin is:
- Extremely Injury Prone
(Quentin has NEVER played over 131 games & averaged 120 games over past 4 seasons) - A Low Average Hitter
(He hit .257 for the White Sox playing in one of best hitters parks in baseball. That translates to hitting .223 if he was a Padre over past 4 seasons.) - An All or Nothing Hitter
(17.4% strike outs vs just 7% walks but a .245 ISO) - A Free Agent at the end of the 2012 Season
- Relatively Expensive
(Quentin will likely be paid $7-8 million in 2012. His 3rd & last year of arbitration) - An Absolute Butcher on Defense
(Quentin has been THE ABSOLUTE WORST DEFENSIVE OUTFIELDER in baseball with more than 2500 innings played over past 3 seasons.)
The Padres will not contend in 2012 and adding Quentin wont change that. Quentin will go away after 2012 since the Padres cant afford to keep an expensive DH. The $7-8 million Byrnes will have to spend on Quentin is ALOT of money for the low payroll Padres and it is being spent on as bad of a fit for that ballpark as you can possibly find.
WTF is Byrnes thinking.
I have had my say, now I would like to hear what YOU have to say about this trade.
- Web
Edit: Changed Byrnes to Quentin in appropriate places.
"Byrnes is obviously trying to make up for his mistake of sending a CHEAP Byrnes away from Arizona years ago."
ReplyDeleteAre you referring to him getting rid of ERIC Byrnes? Or did he trade HIMSELF AWAY?
Was so angry I put Byrnes in the place of Quesntin. Not once, but twice.
DeleteWeb
ReplyDeleteSickles didn't rate Castro or Hernandez in his top 25 heading into 2012 (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/12/10/2626701/san-diego-padres-top-20-prospects-for-2012) and it sounds like Castro is developing at a rate that suggests bullpen rather than rotation.
Having said that, it seems like this is a move that was made for public perception: known name; power bat; still in 20s; pushes payroll to magic "5".
But he won't be here in 2013 and his playing time in 2012 will be at the expense of finding out whether or not one of the young guys can actually play (Blanks, Darnell).
I don't think this is the worst trade ever made. It is sort of strange though.
Larry in San Diego said:
ReplyDeleteLike you, I wonder what this trade was about. I thought Blanks should have gotten one last shot, since TJ surgery has been known to affect a batter's swing and 2010 was his surgery year, and last year his recovery year.
Since Moorad won't allow cash to accompany Hudson out of town, I'm hoping Quentin might be the sweetener to move Hudson. Given the cost for Quentin, the return has to be a decent middle infielder. Otherwise, it's too much to pay to dump Quentin at the deadline for pretty much anything they could get.
Let me preface my argument proper by stating I hope the best for Castro, Hernandez, and Quentin (obviously) in this and future seasons. If that is the case, this is probably a loss for the Padres, unless they can turn Quentin into some other useful prospect(s)/player(s) before the spring or at the trading deadline.
ReplyDeleteMy take:
1. Agree with you there. Hopefully he's able to do something in the off-season to work on mitigating injuries during his contract year.
2. Low average, but high OBP. Albeit, mainly from HBP, which brings us back to #1.
3. Would be one of the better, if not the best K% on the Padres, yes? Also, BB% isn't anything to write home about, but not terrible either.
4. Which I see as a good thing! Hopefully Quentin is an experiment to see how power hitters with strengths that play to Petco can perform.
5. The team is trying to make a respectable run at a low-to-mid $50 million payroll, so I see no reason why they can't afford him. Obviously, and you'd agree here, you can argue he's not the best allocation of resources.
6. Yes, which scares me. That said, last year's defense (at least according to Fangraphs's consolidated FLD stat) was slightly above average, which is a huge jump up from the previous years. I know, defense is supposed to be locked at in a minimum of three year samples, but perhaps Quentin has learned something in the field in recent years.
A .336 OBP post injury is not a high OBP. Quentin's .245 BA over the same period in a hitters haven in Cellular Field does not bode well for hitting in Petco.
ReplyDeleteHis K% would be a benefit, IF he played a full season AND hit for average. Much more likely he plays less than 120 games and hits under .230.
So sending away two guys that the team they are traded to is saying will likely be in major leagues in 2012 for a guy who is a one year rental is a good thing? Seriously?
If you are using any advanced defensive metric you have to take a minimum of a 3 year period to get anywhere close to accurate picture of ability. That is what I looked at. Quentin was THE absolute worst defensive outfielder in baseball over that period.