Lee showing not worth what Rangers paid

Thursday August 26, 2010

I caught a lot of flack on the boards for my July 9th post here saying that the Rangers overpaid for Lee. For saying he would not do as well for Texas as he had for Seattle.

This is an I told you so.

Since the trade Lee is 2-5 in 76 innings over 10 starts and has an ERA of 4.50. The Rangers are 3-7 over Lee's 10 starts. In August Lee has been even worse with an ERA around 6.00. Not exactly a world beater that will lead your team to a World Series.

So what happened?

2 things.

• Lee has given up more than twice as many home runs per 9 innings with the Rangers as he did as a Mariner. 9 hr in 10 games vs 5 in 13. Obviously, part of that is due to playing in the Rangers launching pad and parks like Camden Yards.

• Lee depends on making the other team put the ball in play for an out.
  
  The Rangers best infielder by far this season is now a Mariner. Otherwise they are league average or below. Andrus & Kinsler at 0.2 UZR are basically league average and they go down from there to Young at -5.7
  
  The Mariners have a better infield defense.The Mariners have 1B Kotchman,, 3B Lopez, SS Josh Wilson and Jack Wilson and 2B Figgins who combined for a 1.9 UZR over the 1st half of the season.
  
  So some of what used to be outs and DP in Seattle are hits or at least a lack of an out for Texas now. Lee's batting average against is up 16 points.

Unless Lee can significantly turn things around in September or the Rangers infield defense can improve somehow, this may become one of the most lopsided trades in recent memory.

Rangers over pay for Lee rental

Friday July 9, 2010

I guess the Padres were not willing to rape their farm system to get Cliff Lee.

Today the Texas Rangers agreed to a deal that will send 4 of their top prospects including Uber-prospect Justin Smoak to the Seattle Mariners for Lee and middle reliever Mark Lowe and about $2.5 million to help the bankrupt Rangers pay the balance of Lee's 2010 salary.

To beat out the New York Yankees for a 3 month rental of Cliff Lee, the Rangers have essentially given up their starting catcher of the future and 3 of the top 20 prospects in their system, all of whom were at AA this season.

They mortgaged the future on the hopes of making a deep run in the playoffs this season.

Was it a mistake?

In my eyes, yes.

Over his 7 starts in Rangers Ballpark, Lee has a miserable 7.62 ERA and a .311 BAA. Not exactly comforting numbers for the Rangers faithful. He has not exactly been lights out in Oakland Coliseum or Angels Stadium either, turning in an ERA over 4.30.

And for 3 months of Lee, or more specifically to keep the Yankees from getting 3 months of Lee's pitching, the Rangers sent the Mariners their 2007 (Blake Beavan) and 2008 (Smoak) 1st round picks plus 2 other promising prospects in fireball throwing LHP Josh Lueke and 2B Matt Lawson.

How good is the package the Rangers sent to the Mariners?

• Smoak will step into the Mariners roster immediately, forcing out Casey Kotchman.
• Lueke can likely step in to replace Lowe in the Mariners bullpen immediately. He has been very good at AA Frisco this season. 
• Beavan is just 21 years old and is considered one of the top prospects in the Rangers system and is one of the youngest pitchers in the AA Texas League.
• Lawson is a power hitting 2B that will likely be fighting with Dustin Ackley for playing time in the Mariners infield next season, especially if Jose Lopez's option is not picked up.

All I can say is that the Rangers better make it to the World Series or this trade could come back to haunt them for years to come.