5 Reasons Why the Padres will be Better in 2010

Monday May 3, 2010

Web gave me a couple of subjects he had wanted to cover and asked me to take a stab at them in his absence.

Today I chose to cover a subject that most people were saying was not possible. From what we have seen from the first month of baseball is not only possible, Its happening.

5 Reasons Why the Padres will be Better in 2010

#1 - The Padres had a .284 babip in 2009 - the 2nd lowest in baseball.

They were unlucky to the tune of 15 points. As Web would say, they are due for a regression towards the mean.

#2 - The Padres had a 96 OPS+ in 2009. Good for 8th best in NL.  While all the "experts" on ESPN, MLB Networks and the other sports media were saying the Padres were the worst offensive team in NL, they went out and ranked right in the middle of the pack in park adjusted offense. Park Factors are still beyond the understanding of many in the media.

#3 - The Padres hit 141 hr in 2009. This was good for 13th in NL even though they play home games in Petco. Petco Park depresses HR totals 30% overall. Even playing in Petco, the Padres total was much closer to the league average of 155 than the 16th worst in NL of 95 hr. With Blanks and Venable playing a full season and the return of Scott Hairston, the Padres should produce better power numbers in 2010.

#4 - WPA - the Padres were 5th in the NL at 1.96. WPA is the measure of how well you do in high leverage situations. The Padres obviously did well despite playing half their games in Petco.

#5 - The Padres had a 16.1 WAR in 2009, which ranked 9th in the NL. WAR, or wins above replacement, measures how well a team does offensively and defensively compared to how a AAA player being called up would do. In 2010 the Padres will see improvements in offense for the reasons covered above and will improve on defense to an even greater degree just by having Venable start regularly in RF and having Blanks play in LF instead of the defensively challanged Headley.

What does all that add up to?

The Padres were unlucky offensively last season, play in the toughest park in baseball to hit in and still ended up being a league average team in almost every category.

A little luck, a litle improvement and some young players getting to play every day and for a full seasoin will = a better offensive team.

Defensively the improvement will be even greater with some talented defensive players getting to be on the field daily and Chase Headley being moved to his natural position at 3B from Lf where every ball was an adventure for him.

The Ancillary to the Padres being better?

Why these teams in the NL West will not improve in 2010.

Arizona
They had a team 88 OPS+ with a .299 babip in 2009. They were neither lucky nor unlucky and they stunk with the bat. This season they added 2 players in Kelly Johnson who has an 83 OPS+ and Adam LaRoche who had among the highest Babip in the league amongst 1B at .328 and among the lowest wOBA combined with consistently below average defense for his career, that is a step backwards from a misearable 2009 campaign.

Yes I realize that Johnson has 9 HR right now, but regression towards the mean is a bitch. Expect a .240 average with 15-20 HR by the end of the season after he gets hurt again. He has already missed some games with injuries and there is no reason to believe that trend wont continue.

Los Angeles Dodgers
In 2009 they had a team 104 OPS+ with a .309 BABIP about 10 points toward lucky. They lost a boatload of position players including several starters. For Example they replaced a OPS+ 109 from Orlando Hudson with a 68 from Blake Dewitt at 2B. Their backup in the oufield went from OPS+ 105 Juan Pierre to OPS+ 89 Reed Johnson. Manny Ramirez is a shadow of his steroid self and has already hit the DL once. Same old Manny. Now they have the punch and judy Xavier Paul starting in LF and AJ Ellis backing up at catcher.

Their pitching staff is in even more trouble. They lost inning eating middle of the rotation starters Randy Wolf and Jon Garland and replaced them with Charlie Haeger and Vicente Padilla (who is already on the DL).

San Francisco
They had a team 81 OPS+ and NL worst .305 wOBA in 2009. To remedy that incredibly bad offense they added Aubrey Huff and his .297 wOBA and 81 OPS+ to bat cleanup? This guy could barely secure a starting position on the Orioles roster in 2009. The 35 year old Mark DeRosa and his below league average 97 OPS+ and .327 wOBA is the offensive savior that is giving Giants fans hope? Give me a break. He is a #6 hitter even on the Giants.

The bottom line in ATT Park? They can't hit, they can't run and they are not very good defensively. They are an old club and do not have much depth. Even with the best pitching staff in baseball, the Giants cannot afford even a single injury if they want to compete. I expect them to compete early and then fade as injuries to an old club take their toll.

- Vic Power

Ramos Knocked Around Early & Padres Lose Finale in Extra Innings

Sunday October 4, 2009

David Eckstein knocked in all three Padres runs on 2 run home run, his 2nd of the year, and a sac fly to 3B. Both were improbably plays.

Eckstein is not known for his power, but stroked a home run in the 6th inning off the Giants Jonathan Sanchez, the last pitcher to throw a no hitter against the Padres.

Then in the 8th he popped up a ball to the 3B side that Pablo Sandoval caught and then fell over the railing into the dugout. Ground rules say runners can advance one base and Nick Hundley scored to tie the game.

But the Padres lost the game on a Pablo Sandoval home run to lead off the 10th. The Giants offensive MVP swung at a fat first pitch fastball from Webb and crushed the ball to straight away center field.

The Padres season is over and now we start to look forward to next season.

Losing the last series is not how I would have liked to see the season end, but the Padres showed alot of promise in the 2nd half.

Unfortunately all the progression by the organization was cut short with the firing of Kevin Towers on Friday. Next season is now in limbo instead of being something to look forward to.

Pitchers and catchers report February 17th, 2010

See you in Peoria.

Padres LeBlanc blanks the Giants

Saturday October 3, 2009

Tonight the Padres Wade Leblanc did something I never thought he could, he threw 87-88 mph fastballs consistently and with control.

He also threw 7 innings of 2 hit, shutout ball while striking out 8 Giants in the Padres 2-0 victory at Petco Park. A dominant performance from the 25 year old lefty.

The bullpen came in and shutdown the Giants to complete the shutout capped by Heath Bells 42nd save of the season. It was the Padres 6th shutout in September and 9th on the season.

LeBlanc finished the season 3-1 with a 3.69 ERA in 9 starts. Considering how bad he looked earlier in the season, LeBlanc rebounded exceptionally well and finished the season on a high note. He certainly gave notice that he wants a spot in the 2010 Padres rotation by giving up a total of just 8 runs in his last 6 starts.

Adrian Gonzalez went 3 for 4 and drove in his 99 rbi of the season and Chase Headley drove in a run with a 1st inning single.

Matt Cain took the loss for the Giants. Cain ended the season with 14-8 record and a 2.89 ERA.

2nd straight good outing from LeBlanc in Pads win

Wednesday Sept 9, 2009

Happy 9/9/9!

Looks like Wade LeBlanc was celebrating the day as he collected his 2nd straight victory in the San Diego Padres 4-2 win over the San Francisco Giants at Alphabet Soup Park.

LeBlanc pitched a heck of a good game too allowing just 2 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks. 2 of those walks came to start the 8th inning, but Luke Gregerson came in with 2 on and no outs and shut the Giants down.

Adrian Gonzalez provided all the offense the Padres would need driving in 3 runs on a single in the first with Everth Cabrera on 3rb base and a booming home run to left field, his 37th of the season, in the 3rd inning.

Oscar Salazar added an insurance run in the 6th with a solo shot of his own.

Cabrera stole his 22nd and 23rd bases of the season to move him into 4th place on the Padres list for rookies behind Ozzie Smith, Alan Wiggins and Roberto Alomar. 1 more SB and he will tie Alomar's total amassed over 143 games in 1988.

The Padres have now won FIVE straight series including 4 on the road and put up double digit hits for the 4th time in 8 games this month.

Barry Zito took the loss for the Giants going 5 innings and giving up 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks with 2 k's.