Padres Batting Projections for 2009

Saturday March 7, 2009

Padres Batting Projections for 2009.

I have broken down my projections into two different types:

• Projections based on 2008 stats adjusted to 600 AB equivalents in 2009.

• Projections based on 600 AB and Adjustments for Historical Improvement and Declines for Players Age and Length of ML Service.

While neither of these are perfect projection methods as injuries and inexplicable declines do happen(see Khalil Greene 2008), but these two types of projections will give you a chance to chose for yourself where you think their performance may end up.

Bench spot projections are based on their 2008 abs with the exception of Burke.

If I don't get to lazy, I will be adding another post for the rest of the NL West Teams one by one in the coming weeks.

I don't know how well these tables will format here and some of my formulas seem to be rounding OPS down but here goes:

Projected 2009 Stats based on
2008 stats and 600 abs per position
(1200 abs total from Bench)

Team Padres
Position Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
LF Headley 0.270 0.340 0.420 0.760 16 60
CF Gerut 0.300 0.350 0.494 0.845 21 80
RF Giles 0.300 0.400 0.456 0.856 12 60
4th OF - 300 abs Hairston 0.250 0.300 0.479 0.779 17 32
OF Subtotal 0.280 0.348 0.462 0.812 66 232

1B Gonzales 0.280 0.380 0.510 0.890 35 120
2B Eckstein 0.265 0.343 0.349 0.692 4 52
SS Rodriguez 0.287 0.326 0.351 0.677 0 36
3B Kouzmanoff 0.275 0.300 0.433 0.732 23 80
C Hundley/Other 0.240 0.300 0.359 0.659 10 50
IF Subtotal 0.269 0.330 0.400 0.730 72 338

Bench Abs Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
246 Floyd 0.268 0.349 0.455 0.804 11 38
120 Blanco 0.292 0.325 0.392 0.717 3 12
325 E Gonzalez 0.274 0.329 0.385 0.713 7 33
165 Burke* 0.260 0.320 0.273 0.593 2 12
856 Bench Subtotal 0.274 0.331 0.376 0.707 23 95

Fielders Subtotal 0.274 0.336 0.413 0.749 161 665

Pitchers (Current Pitchers) 0.165 0.200 0.182 0.382 2 12

Total 0.247 0.302 0.355 0.657 163 677


2009 Projections Based on
600 abs or 2008 abs (whichever is larger)
with adjustments for historical changes at
age and years of ML service

Team Padres
Position Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
LF Headley 0.278 0.350 0.433 0.783 18.540 78.280
CF Gerut 0.306 0.357 0.504 0.861 26.132 80.264
RF Giles 0.292 0.389 0.444 0.832 11.676 61.299
4th OF - 300 abs Hairston 0.255 0.306 0.489 0.795 17.340 31.620
OF Subtotal 0.283 0.351 0.467 0.818 74 251

1B Gonzales 0.300 0.408 0.547 0.935 38.628 127.687
2B Eckstein 0.262 0.340 0.346 0.685 3.669 49.530
SS Rodriguez 0.293 0.333 0.358 0.691 0.000 36.900
3B Kouzmanoff 0.295 0.322 0.465 0.785 24.679 90.132
C Hundley/Other 0.247 0.309 0.370 0.655 15.450 74.160
IF Subtotal 0.280 0.342 0.417 0.750 82 378

Bench Abs Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
246 Floyd 0.265 0.346 0.451 0.796 10.896 37.640
120 Blanco 0.284 0.316 0.381 0.698 2.919 11.676
325 E Gonzalez 0.279 0.336 0.393 0.727 7.140 33.660
165 Burke* 0.265 0.326 0.278 0.595 2.040 12.240
856 Bench 0.274 0.331 0.376 0.706 23 95

Fielders Subtotal 0.279 0.341 0.420 0.761 179 725

Pitchers .170 .206 .187 .393 2.06 12.36

Total 0.251 0.307 0.362 0.669 181 737


OPS Figures are rounded down to nearest thousandth.

If there is anyone out there who can help me post actual tables from a spread sheet here, please contact me.

Thanks, Web

Wackiest Trade Rumor of the Year

March 1, 2009

There have been some wacky trade rumors out there from members of the media, ( I would call them journalists, but most aren't) as anyone who reads mlbtraderumors.com can attest.

This one has to take the cake though.

Its from one of those wacky Angels fans who needed a monkey to get them rallied up.
(Sorry goes out to Sean Smith of Halos Heaven, an Angel Fan who is incredibly knowledgeable about the game of baseball and has a great site.

Unfortunately this one is a MLB Blog so most people are going to take is the official media word about the Angels.

The blog is called Rally Monkeys and the post was entitled Daydream Believers.

I am thinking Mr Spencer was smoking something when he wrote it.

Here is my breakdown of this ludicrous trade proposition.

He is proposing that the Padres trade both Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez to the Angels for Nick Adenhart, Dustin Moseley, Shane Loux, Kevin Jepsen, Erick Aybar, Freddy Sandoval, Matt Brown, Kendry Morales, Reggie Willits and Terry Evans.

His reasoning is that it gives the Padres a whole new team.

Here is my take on his proposed trade:
Nick Adenhart has 3 ML starts and he did worse than LeBlanc in that short stint. He doesn't have an overpowering fastball, his is in the low 90's (91-92 mph) and he has not been a strike out pitcher in the minors.

Dustin Moseley is 27 and has never lived up to his expectations. His 5.52 ERA in 61 ML appearances (20 starts) over 3 seasons doesn't speak well of his talent and his high 80's fastball is not exactly exciting.

Shane Loux is not exactly a good prospect at 29 years old. A reliever, Loux had 5 years between major league appearances (2003-2008).

Kevin Jepsen I like. He is only 24 and he is a hard throwing righty out of the pen.

Erick Aybar (24) is the epitome of the all field, no hit SS. I think the Padres can do as well in house within a couple of years.

Freddy Sandoval is a 3B/DH by trade. Don't think the Padres need another one of those, do you? In fact I think the Padres have better in their farm system in Darnell and Dykstra.

Matt Brown. Another 3B. Why?

Kendry Morales is a good young player at 25, but he is a long way from replacing Gonzalez both with the bat and the glove.

Reggie Willits. Speed and that's it. 5 career home runs in 6 professional seasons. Yes, you read that right, 5 career home runs. None in 583 abs at the ML level. Can you say Juan Pierre?

Terry Evans is an average minor league hitter - 0.285 0.344 0.472 0.816 who plays below average defense. I don't think so.

I really see only three players who could even make the current squad - Aybar because he is much better defensively than anyone the Padres have THIS season, Jepsen, and Morales. Adenhart would have a hard time beating out LeBlanc, Geer, Inman, Correia and Prior.

No Way do I make that trade.

I have had my say. Now what do you think?

Websoulsurfers Padres Projections for 2009

Saturday February 28, 2009

Websoulsurfer's San Diego Padres projections for 2009

I know there are going to be questions about methodology and I am not going to go into detail on that. I will say that I base my projections not only on the individual players past statistics but also on statistical models of the historical improvement and decline of players based on age and ML level playing time as well as adjusted for the parks they will be playing in. (Not just Petco, all the parks).

These are a few of the Padres players in which I see the biggest changes over 2008 for the positions they play.

Improvements

Young 30 starts/172 IP – 13 -11 3.38 era 1.12 whip .211 baa
Young is reaching both the age and the number of years of ML playing time at which the number of starts peaks. He is coming off 3 straights seasons in which he pitched 30-31 starts and one season in which he made 17 starts but missed an additional 17 because of a non-functional injury (line drive to face, not a shoulder or elbow injury). He should rebound well in 2009 and nearly double his win production from 2008.

Eckstein 140 starts/550 pa - .278/.350/.354/.704 7 SB
Eckstein moves from SS to his natural position of 2B so his defense should see an improvement, or at least not additional decline. His batting average and OBP should not decline as he is a line drive, not a power hitter, in a park with huge alleys. The only question mark is his age. He turns 34 in January. That kind of production is a huge improvement for the Padres and should add 3+ wins over replacement at 2B (SS would actually be less).

Kevin Kouzmanoff 152 starts/652 PA - .284/.334/.487/.821 24 HR/92 RBI/36 BB/112 SO
Of any season, the third FULL year at the ML level sees the greatest increase in production. Kouzmanoff is 27, and turns 28 in July. That is the prime age for seeing a career year as well. After a season of playing daily and seeing a dramatic improvement in defense, 2009 is the season I see a great upturn at the plate.

Chase Headley 142 starts/558 PA - .281/.371/.485/.856 16 HR/71 RBI/56 BB/139 SO
Headley is a player that has shown a consistent ability to adjust to higher levels of talent with the bat. 2008 was the first season as an amateur or professional that Headley had been asked to play LF. The simultaneous adjustments he had to make both in the field and to a higher level of play showed in his overall production. I see an improvement coming in every aspect of his game with the biggest being in his obp and slugging.

HBP –
With both Eckstein (127 in 8 seasons) and Kouzmanoff (25 in 2 seasons) on the squad, the Padres should easily lead the league in HBP.


Declines

Closer –
1st year closers average a 70.2% save percentage. Bell’s overall statistics at the ML level are very close to those of the average first year closer. If Bell turns out to be an average first year closer that will mean 6 fewer saves and 5 fewer wins for the Padres in his relief appearances if the Padres repeat the 34 save situations they presented the closer in 2008. I believe that we will see a 25% increase in save opportunities to 42 – 43 in 2009. While that means about 29-30 saves, it also means 11-12 BS and 7+ more losses than in 2008.

Shortstop –
While we can look for a huge increase in batting average over Greene’s 2008 and career #’s, especially in RISP, 2 strike, and 2 out situations, we will also see a marked decline in defense and a decline in power over Greene’s career numbers regardless of who is manning the position.

Yes I know that Greene's UZR in 2008 was 4 runs lower than Rodriguez's(-2.4 to -6.3), but I do believe that Greene was the better defensive player overall. I don’t believe that Luis Rodriguez will be an everyday starter all season. In fact I only project him to get 320 PA. If Cabrera makes the team as the backup SS, I believe that he will hit near .200 with little if any power.

Injuries -
The Padres had an MLB record of 1244 Player days on the DL in 2008, breaking their own record of 1100+ in 2002. The ML average was 458 last season.

The Padres also tied a team and MLB record for number of players used in a season.

2008 – 1244 DL days - 32 pitchers, 27 position players = 59 players used
2003 – 1057 DL days - 27 pitchers, 25 position players = 52 players used
2002 – 1108 DL days - 37 pitchers, 22 position players = 59 players used

Do you notice any correlation between the years in which the Padres had MLB records for injuries and the win-loss records?

There are some that say the number of DL days should not include players that were on the DL for the entire season, (TJ/Shoulder Surgery, injury in ST. etc…) but if they were on the 40 man roster and expected to contribute I included them in these numbers.


Team Projections

As the lineup and rotation begin to take shape I am seeing a definite trend towards an overall improvement in both offensive production and pitching.

Young players like Kouzmanoff and Headley improving, consistent gamers like Eckstein being added and a team that is getting younger overall and less injury prone.

With the addition of Cliff Floyd off the Bench and Henry Blanco to the catching corp, the Padres have a stronger bench than the one they started the 2008 season with.

In fact Edgar Gonzalez may not even make the team if Cabrera has a good showing in spring training. It is interesting to note that Travis Denker, a career 2B in the minor leagues, has only played at 3B in spring training so far and that Headley has not played 3B at all.

As of today, I project the Padres will see a 13 game improvement in wins to a 76-86 record.