Fair Warning

Friday August 27, 2010

I have been to 9 Padres games so far this season where I sat in a seat other than my season ticket seat.

The Padres are 0-9.

On Saturday I will be at the game, but not sitting in my season ticket seats.

Yeah I know I am supposed to be a stat guy and shouldn't believe in jinxes, but 0 & 9?

Just thought you all deserved fair warning.

Lee showing not worth what Rangers paid

Thursday August 26, 2010

I caught a lot of flack on the boards for my July 9th post here saying that the Rangers overpaid for Lee. For saying he would not do as well for Texas as he had for Seattle.

This is an I told you so.

Since the trade Lee is 2-5 in 76 innings over 10 starts and has an ERA of 4.50. The Rangers are 3-7 over Lee's 10 starts. In August Lee has been even worse with an ERA around 6.00. Not exactly a world beater that will lead your team to a World Series.

So what happened?

2 things.

• Lee has given up more than twice as many home runs per 9 innings with the Rangers as he did as a Mariner. 9 hr in 10 games vs 5 in 13. Obviously, part of that is due to playing in the Rangers launching pad and parks like Camden Yards.

• Lee depends on making the other team put the ball in play for an out.
  
  The Rangers best infielder by far this season is now a Mariner. Otherwise they are league average or below. Andrus & Kinsler at 0.2 UZR are basically league average and they go down from there to Young at -5.7
  
  The Mariners have a better infield defense.The Mariners have 1B Kotchman,, 3B Lopez, SS Josh Wilson and Jack Wilson and 2B Figgins who combined for a 1.9 UZR over the 1st half of the season.
  
  So some of what used to be outs and DP in Seattle are hits or at least a lack of an out for Texas now. Lee's batting average against is up 16 points.

Unless Lee can significantly turn things around in September or the Rangers infield defense can improve somehow, this may become one of the most lopsided trades in recent memory.