Wednesday, December 30, 2009

More Gonzalez Trade Rumors

Wednesday December 30, 2009

There are more Adrian Gonzalez trade rumors floating around and this time they involve the Chicago Cubs in a 3 team deal with the Boston Red Sox.

The rumor seems to have started when Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune posted the following on the 27th of this month:

"Worth watching: If the Red Sox wind up with Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, the Cubs immediately would make a major effort to land Jacoby Ellsbury to fill their center field/leadoff hole, according to sources.

That scenario helps explain why the Cubs have been so patient in studying their options. The best way to do such a trade might be for GM Jim Hendry to facilitate a three-team deal that sends first baseman Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres to the Red Sox by packaging a group of prospects, possibly including one or two of their top ones, such as third baseman Josh Vitters, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and pitchers Andrew Cashner and Jay Jackson."

There have been several blogs including Bleacher Report that have talked about Ellsbury going to the Cubs and Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox and the Padres getting multiple stupid packages. Almost all of the trades I have seen in those blogs involve both Anderson and Vitters, both of who the Padres don't need.

I have read a couple of  trade propositions on a Cubs blog that I thought the Padres might just say yes to.
They included :

Cubs getting Ellsbury and Lars Anderson.

Red Sox getting Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres and Jay Jackson or John Gaub from the Cubs

Padres getting Buchholz, Kelly, and Kalish or Westmoreland from the Red Sox and Cashner or Samardzija, and Hak-Ju Lee or Castro from the Cubs.

This trade probably has WAY too many moving parts to ever get done, but it would make sense for all 3 teams.

Buchholz moves into the Padres starting rotation immediately. Blanks then moves to 1B for the Padres. As far as the other pieces go, Castro could be a Padre before the end of 2010, but Kalish, Kelly, Cashner and Lee are all several years away from being major leaguers.

Ellsbury fills the Cubs hole in CF and gives them a true leadoff hitter. Anderson provides the heir apparent for Derrek Lee.

The addition of Adrian Gonzalez makes the Red Sox the favorite to win the AL East.

Is this a trade you think the Padres brass would move on?

Do you think a package of those players would improve the Padres team enough to justify moving Adrian Gonzalez now instead of at the trading deadline?

Monday, December 21, 2009

Padres trade for catcher of the future?

Monday December 21, 2009

Did the Padres just get their fans an early Christmas present? Is Ryan the Catcher of the Future?

Maybe I should back up and let you know what I am talking about.

Today the San Diego Padres traded for Detroit Tigers catcher Dusty Ryan

Ryan, 25,  is a very good defensive catcher with a strong arm and some power at the plate, but he has never really hit very well. In 2009 he hit 257/.359/.455/.814 in 62 games in AAA with 63 strike outs in 202 abs and a robust.154/.267/.192/.459 in 26 games for the Tigers.

Sound familiar Padres fans?

That is not just my opinion of Ryan. John Sickels of Minor League Ball said this about him in his Detroit Tigers Top 20 Prospects for 2009.

"Strong arm, has power...he’s never been a good hitter."

In all fairness, Ryan has hit .257 in 72 abs over 2 seasons for the Tigers, but he was passed up by Alex Avila in the pecking order of prospects an so was expendable. In fact he was designated for assignment on December 10th as a result of the Granderson trade.

The Padres didn't give up much for him. A little cash or a player to be named later. Normally that means a schmo from the depths of the minors.

At least Hoyer is doing SOMETHING to try to fill the holes in the roster and the system as a whole with his two moves this off season.

Nothing of a spectacular nature yet. Not even a player that will be a starter on the 2010 Padres squad. But now he has at least made some moves.

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Good News for Padres Fans

Sunday December 20, 2009

Merry Christmas!

In the best news of the off season so far, San Diego Padres fans were given a gift today. The team decided to lower prices on beer, food and parking according to an article by Bill Center in the UT.

Now all we need is some exciting players to watch while we are enjoying our cheaper but still expensive food and beer.

In the article by Center, Padres President Tom Garfinkel  said that the first priority is building a winning team. We have yet to see any moves by the team towards that end and we have heard that the team will not be active in any major FA signings.What we are getting is signs that they are going to wait to see what is left on the garbage heap after all the top 2 tiers of players are signed.

The Padres took huge strides towards giving fans an exciting team in the 2nd half last season. Whether they can win in 2010 is still in question. Most of the media and even local fans and blogs are writing them off for next season.

So while cheaper food is nice, a decent center fielder would be nicer. I will gladly pay for an $8 beer if it means having a CF that can hit 20 home runs while playing exceptional defense. I will happily pay 7.75 for a Randy Jones dog if that means the Padres can afford to field a team with more than the cast offs they have signed as free agents in recent years.

Hoyer the next step is yours. Fill out the roster with some players that will give fans a reason to show up, a winning team.

Then I will buy your concessions at whatever price you choose to charge.

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Should Padres trade Gonzalez? If so When?

Friday December 18, 2009

Should Padres trade Gonzalez? If so When?

I think the following post on a Padres message board expresses the sentiment of most fans and media around the league.
"The idea is that the Padres must trade Adrian Gonzalez. They can't afford him and trading Adrian would make the Padres a better team compared to signing him long term."
I don't think that was ever in question. Eventually the Padres will have to trade Gonzalez.

Small market teams like the Padres simply cannot afford to hold on to any individual player that could make $20-22.5 million per season and that would take up 30++% of their total payroll.

In fact, no team can carry a single player that takes up that much of their payroll regardless of the size of the payroll. A team like the Yankees could no more afford a single player that made $60-65 million per year on their $200 million payroll than the Padres can afford a $20-22.5 million player on the $70 million payroll Moorad is promising is on the way for this team. For that matter a team with a $40 million per year payroll, like the Padres will have in 2010, can't afford to carry a $13-15 million player either.

I don't think there is any question Adrian Gonzalez is a valuable player and will bring a great value to any team that trades for him. Adrian Gonzalez is among the Top 10 hitters in baseball today, an exceptional fielder at his position, and is still in his prime at 27. The Padres should garner a bevy of great players in return when he is traded.

The question is when will Adrian Gonzalez bring the Padres the greatest return?

In the Media and the Blogosphere they are talking about a trade that could reportedly bring the Padres 4-5 top prospects in return for Adrian Gonzalez if they were to trade him this offseason.

To me it seems logical that at the trading deadline contending teams would give more in return for a push to the playoffs than during the off season when there are many more players available to fill positions of need to that team.

The likely hood is the Padres will not be in contention at the All Star break in 2010 so a trade of Gonzalez would not be depriving them of a spot in the playoffs and they could then load up on players to help the team contend in 2011 and beyond.

If the Padres are still in contention come the All Star Break in 2010, then they hold on to Gonzalez until the end of 2010.

His value will be slightly diminished, but will still be exceptional both in terms of return on the trade and in his 2010 production at bat and in the field.

One year of .280-300/.400/.550/1.000 with 40+ home runs (Gonzalez would likely hit closer to 50 in Fenway) is worth a lot more than the $5.5 million Gonzalez will make in 2011.  Fangraphs had Gonzalez WAR at 6.3 for 2009 which equates to about $28.4 million on the free agent market.

There will undoubtedly will still be teams lining up and salivating at the thought of having player of that caliber playing 1B and hitting in the middle of the lineup for them in the off season after the 2010 season. We are still talking about a deal that would probably include 3 of the top ten prospects in any teams system and probably either another prospect or a young ML player.

Past that point his value diminishes greatly. You cannot expect to get a 4-5 for 1 deal that includes only top10 prospects at the 2011 Trading Deadline. The Padres have much less leverage when you are talking about just 2 months and the playoffs, but even a 3 month rental of Adrian is worth some good prospects in return since at bat like Adrian's in the middle of the lineup could turn a good team into one that can make a deep run in the playoffs.

If you don't think the Red Sox would still give up a top prospect like Kelly or Westmoreland for Gonzales to give them a shot at beating the Yankees and going to the World Series in 2011, you are not paying attention. NO prospect is as valuable as a World Series ring.

I guess you could say that no matter when the Padres trade Gonzalez they are going to either have earned incredible return on him by having that much production from so inexpensive of a contract on a contending team or they will get a tremendous haul of prospects for him in trade that will help rebuild the team.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Padres sign CF of the future?

Thursday December 17, 2009

Jed Hoyer finally did something!

According to and a twitter post by Corey Brock of the Padres signed CF Chris Denorfia to a minor league contract.

Denorfia, 29, (you are excused for saying WHO? No one else knows who is he is either.) has 208 career  abs in parts of 4 seasons for the Reds and A's. He hits for middlin' average (.279), has no power (3 hr), and is a below average fielder.

Denorfia DOES bat right handed and plays CF, so is he the player Hoyer is bringing in to platoon with Gwynn?  Or is he just organizational filler?

Lets hope he is just filler and Hoyer has a rabbit up his sleeve.

Sunday, December 13, 2009

Padres moves in the coming weeks?

Sunday December 13, 2009

With just 37 players on the roster, I started wondering about what moves the Padres will make in the coming weeks.

FA signings? If they do I would suspect it will be for non tendered players that would still be under team control for a couple of years.

Trades?  Kouzmanoff and Bell are the obvious trade options. If he shows well in spring training, Chris Young could be another player the Padres could consider trading, although he is more likely to be traded closer to the deadline in July.

I would love to see the Padres move Kouzmanoff to the Twins for AA catcher Wilson Ramos and another prospect or two. As far as Bell goes, it seems to me that the Phillies and the Tigers are the two best fits. Maybe Bell & a low level prospect to the Phillies for Michael Taylor and another prospect like Freddy Galvis. Or Bell and a low level prospect to the Tigers for Ryan Perry and Wilkin Ramirez.

So who will the 3 people be that take up those roster spots?

Here are a few I would like the Padres to at least take a run at.

Kelly Johnson - 2B - Was non tendered by the Braves after making $2.825 million in 2009, his first year of arbitration eligibility. He only hit .224/.303/.389/.692 with 8 hr in 303 abs while battling a wrist injury in 2009 after hitting .287/.349/.446/.795 in 2008. He could be a bargain bin find.

Johnny Gomes - OF - Earned $600k on a minor league deal in 2009 in his 2nd year of arbitration eligibility. Hit 267/.338/.541/.879 with 20 hrs in 281 abs last year. While he did play his home games in a launching pad, Gomes could be the power hitting RHB the Padres are looking for to platoon in the outfield.

Miguel Olivo - C - The Royals declined Olivo's $3.3 million option for 2010. He had earned $2.7 million in 2009 while hitting .249 with 23 home runs while playing most of his games in a tough park to hit for power in. He would be a perfect mentor for Hundley and RH power bat off the bench, although his free swinging ways (126 SO in 390 ABS) are not the type a Sabermetrician like Hoyer is probably looking for.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Padres non-tender Worrell and Quezada

Saturday December 12, 2009

The San Diego Padres declined to offer contracts for 2010 to Jackson Quezada and Mark Worrell.

Both Quezada and Worrell spent the entire 2009 season on the DL.

Quezada, 23, was the closer for FT Wayne in 2008 and was once considered a top relief prospect in the Padres oganization and Worrell came to the Padres from St Louis in the Khalil Greene trade.

Padres sign Correia to a 1 Year deal

Saturday December 12, 2009

Looks like the Padres avoided arbitration or having to non-tender starting pitcher Kevin Correia by signing him to a 1 year $3.6 million deal.

The deal was initially reported by Marty Caswell of XX 1090 in a Twitter post and later confirmed by Corey Brock of in his Twitter post.

Correia, who is a San Diego native, led the Padres in wins, innings and other pitching categories after signing a minor league deal with the Padres last season for a below market $750k with a promise he would be a starter. He had turned down larger offers elsewhere to pitch in a relief role.

Now he will be a Padre for at least one more season.

Barry Axelrod, Correia's agent has said the neither the Padres nor Correia had asked for a second season as had been widely reported in the media and blogs. Correia will be in the Padres control for 2 more seasons after 2010 before becoming a free agent.

Correia will likely take a spot in the middle of the Padres rotation behind Chris Young and Mat Latos in 2010.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Padres New GM does nothing at Winter Meetings

Thursday December 11, 2009

Padres GM Jed hoyer did nothing at the MLB Winter Meetings in Indianapolis this week.

No Trades, No Arbitration Eligible players offered contracts, No FA Signings, No Rule V Players Drafted, No Minor League Signings. Nothing.

And he seems happy about that. He said he is going to wait and pick over the garbage heap that is left later in the offseason.

While other teams were active in signings, trades and more, the Padres new GM locked himself and his team in their suite.

Please Jed Hoyer. Live up to the hype. Make this team better.

Wednesday, December 09, 2009

The All Decade Team - Websoulsurfer Style

Wednesday December 9, 2009

The Websoulsurfer All Decade Team 2000-2009

We have come to the end of a decade - 2000-2009.

That got me started thinking about who were the best players of the decade. The best hitters, the best pitchers, the best by position. I decided to put together a team of the best players.

Let me start by saying that anyone tainted by steroids is not included, regardless of their stats. To be on MY all decade team you have to be a player worth rooting for, and cheaters are not worth rooting for in my book.

I also did not include a DH. In my opinion, to be considered as a great BASEBALL player you have to play the field.You don't have to be the BEST fielder at your position, but you have to be a good enough player to HAVE a position in the field.

Here is my team:

1B - Albert Pujols    - 172 OPS+ 366 HR 1112 RBI .334/.427/.628 3230 TB    
No one else even comes close. When his career is over he will probably start on my All Time Team.

2B - Jeff Kent         - 130 OPS+ 216 HR 850 RBI .300/.371/.518 2462 TB
Most Home runs by a 2B ever. Was at his peak during those years and retired after 2008.

SS - Derek Jeter    - 121 OPS+ 161 HR 727 RBI .317/.387/.456 2793 TB 219 SB
While I don't like the Yankees as a whole, Jeter has been the best SS in the last decade.

3B - Chipper Jones    - 147 OPS+ 273 HR 921 RBI .311/.413/.547 2700 TB
Only 3 players hit more HR & only 2 had a better OPS+ in the decade. Enough said.

LF - Brian Giles     - 136 OPS+ 209 HR 806 RBI .289/.400/.494 2543 TB
136 OPS+ puts him in rarified air. 209 hr while playing 6+ years in Petco. Amazing player.

CF - Ichiro Suzuki     - 118 OPS+ 84  HR 515 RBI .333/.378/.434 2646 TB 341 SB
6 seasons leading league in hits. 9 straight 200 hit seasons. Gold Glove fielder.

RF - Vladimir Guerrero    - 146 OPS+ 315 HR 1037 RBI .323/.392/.569 3080 TB
Vlad the impaler lead AL outfielders in HR and RBI in the decade. 4th best OPS+

C  - Ivan Rodriguez    - 110 OPS+ 161 HR 643 RBI .298/.335/.477 2207 TB
Best defensive catcher since, well, maybe ever. AND he can hit.

RHP - Pedro Martinez    - 112 Wins  3.01 ERA  .691 win %  152 ERA+
LHP - Johan Santana      - 122 Wins  3.12 ERA  .670 win %  143 ERA+

Closer - Trevor Hoffman - 363 Saves 2.77 ERA 8.8 K/9 4.22 SO/BB 90% Saves
466 GF. 403 Save opportunities of 546 appearances. Only 18% of inherited runners scored

On this one I am a little biased. Ok, a lot biased.
What Trevor did on a weak Padres team that won only 606 games in his 9 seasons as a Padre is astounding. 363 saves on two teams that only had 4 winning seasons in 10.
363 saves when your teams only won 686 games.
Hoffman entered 365 of 466 games in high levereage situations. (Rivera only 389 of 589 games.)

Honorable Mention

At some positions it was either very close or the player I chose was head and shoulders better than the next best choice so I have added an Honorable Mention category.

1B - Todd Helton     - 145 OPS+ 260 HR 981 RBI .331/.436/.569 3021 TB
2B - Chase Utley    - 129 OPS+ 161 HR 585 RBI .295/.379/.523 1730 TB 2003-2009
SS - Miggy Tejada    - 116 OPS+ 251 HR 1046 RBI .297/.347/.481 3010 TB
3B - Scott Rolen    - 124 OPs+ 201 HR 832 RBI .285/.368/.497 2321 TB
LF - Lance Berkman     - 148 OPS+ 309 HR 1026 RBI .300/.413/.559 2887 TB
CF - Jim Edmonds    - 140 OPS+ 261 HR 768 RBI .280/.389/.548 2175 TB
RF - Bobby Abreu    - 132 OPS+ 216 HR 993 RBI .297/.402/.492 2851 TB 295 SB
C  - Mike Piazza    - 127 OPS+ 187 HR 567 RBI .285/.360/.512 1667 TB 2000-2007
C  - Jorge Posada     - 124 OPS+ 208 HR 849 RBI .283/.386/.878 2177 TB

RHP - Roy Halladay      - 139 Wins  3.40 ERA  .668 win %  133 ERA+
LHP - Randy Johnson    - 143 Wins  3.34 ERA  .647 win %  137 ERA+

Closer - Mariano Rivera - 397 Saves 2.08 ERA 8.4 K/9 4.88 SO/BB 90% Saves
589 GF. 437 save situations of 651 appearances. 32% of inherited runners scored
Awesome. Simply awesome, but his team won 965 games. They never had a losing season.

An Outfielder for the Padres?

Wednesday December 9, 2009

Marlon Byrd?

Looks like the Rangers are going to let Byrd walk. Byrd is a free agent after making $3,060,000 in 2009

Byrd, 32, hit .283/.329/.479/.808 with 20 home runs in the band box they call Rangers Ballpark.

Is he the Right Handed outfield bat the Padres are looking for? Could they afford him with a $40 something million payroll?

Why the Padres CAN compete in 2010

Wednesday December 9, 2009

The Padres had a pretty good team in 2009 that was decimated by injuries. I believe that with a few key additions the Padres can compete in the NL West in 2010.

This is pretty stream of consciousness, but I think once you see my argument, you will at least have to think twice about writing off the Padres in 2010.

The Padres played .527 baseball the 2nd half of the season and .596 baseball from July 27th on. That after playing .500 baseball in both April and May.

Throw out a stretch from June 1st to the All star break when the Padres went 11-27 and the Padres played 64-60 baseball the rest of the year.

No way around it, that is good baseball from a group of young baseball players. No mirage there. The mirage is the 11-27 stretch in the middle of the season when the starting rotation was devastated by injuries.

Now the pitching staff has incredible depth to deal with the inevitable injuries, but no real veteran top of the rotation guy in there.

We don't know how Sheets will respond once he returns from this latest injury, but his career averages are enough to put him at or near the top of the Padres current rotation. 27 starts and double digit wins for maybe $5 - $7 million on a 1 year deal.

Same can be said for Rich Harden although he may get closer to $7 million on a one year deal and he has averaged only 20 starts over the last 6 seasons.

Mulder, who is 32 years old, was a #1-#2 starter before injuries set in.  No one knows how well he will pitch in 2010, but certainly he is worth bringing in on a incentive laden 1 year deal, just like Prior was. If you win, you win big. If you lose it doesn't cost you much.

Uggla is available in trade and the Marlins will be looking for only prospects and young, controllable player in return. The Padres have Kouzmanoff and lots of good young prospects they could trade for him. He is also a 30 HR RHB at 2B. How many of those are there? One other, Chase Utley.

That move also gives the Padres a chance to move Eckstein to a middle infield utility position that the team does not have now.

It adds 25-30 home runs at a non run producing position and shores up the bench at the same time.

Add a decent power hitting catcher like Miguel Olivo and you have a solid team that can make a run at the NL West.

The Dodgers will be lucky to resign Wolf (update - Wolf signed with the Brewers today) and its doubtful they will be in the running for any major FA with the impending divorce there. Their pitching was suspect in 2009 and they may be losing Belliard, Hudson, Loretta, Thome, Garland, Padilla, Wolf and Weaver.

The Diamondbacks sunk, when most expected they would get better and they are going to be without Webb, Davis, Garland, and Petit to start 2010. Their OPS+ in 2009 was among the lowest in the league(while the Padres was above league average). They made a huge trade yesterday giving up two good young pitching prospects in Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth for Edwin Jackson of the Tigers and Ian Kennedy of the Yankees. In my opinion they have made a marginal improvement in their pitching staff for a huge leap in costs.

The Rockies will be cutting payroll with Marquis and his 15 wins, Josh Fogg, Joe Beimel, Garret Atkins, Yorvit Torrealba,  Alan Embree, Herges and possibly Rafael Betancourt  leaving the team.  They will still be good and will probably be contenders in the NL West as well.

The Giants will still have great pitching, Lincecum's marijuana bust not withstanding, but their offense was the worst in baseball in 2009 and it would take several huge signings to make it any good.

With a big bat to protect Adrian in the batting order and a #2 starter added to a core of good young players the Padres should be able to contend in a weakened West.

What do you think? Who would you sign? What trades would you make to help the Padres contend in 2010?

The 2009 San Diego Padres - an above average hitting team

Wednesday December 9, 2009

The 2009 Padres were an above average hitting team.

I keep seeing all these articles and postings that claim the Padres are a poor hitting team.

I just don’t follow the logic.

Yes the Padres hit poorly in Petco, but EVERYONE hit poorly in Petco.

Padres in Petco
.219 .313 .342 .655

ALL teams hitting in Petco
.229 .315 .351 .666 (Petco is Hell for hitters)

NL teams hitting in Petco
.227 .313 .348 .661

OPS+ is a stat that neutralizes park factors. When you look at OPS+, the Padres at 96 are above league average.

Padres CAN win in 2010, Padres DID win 4 of 6 months in 2009

Wednesday December 9, 2009

Its amazing how many people are writing off the San Diego Padres in 2010, even so called Padres fans.

I guess in all their negativity they missed the fact that the Padres played .500+ baseball in 4 of 6 months in 2009. April, May, August, and September.

Only in two horrid injury filled months of June and July did the Padres fall under .500. Now in those two months they did go a misearable 17-37, but it was just those two months where they were below .500.

The last two months they went 32-23. Why are fans, blogs and the media not looking at those months when they make their prognostications?

Tell me why do they think the Padres can't win in 2010?

I am hoping that Jed Hoyer is much smarter than the average Padres fan, blogger and media member and can see the talent on the team and the potential for a winning season in 2010 with just a few additions and changes.

Moving Headley out of LF and replacing him with Kyle Blanks will add more just in the defensive upgrade than the difference between him and Kouzmanoff at 3B both offensively and defensively.

So Kouzmanoff should be traded.

Package Kouzmanoff and Bell for Taylor and a couple of good prospects from the Phillies and you have filled two holes and only created one, closer.

Adams, Gregerson or Poreda could fill that position.

Or send Kouzmanoff to the Twins for Wilson Ramos and a prospect like Shooter Hunt and you have the catcher of the future and a high upside pitching prospect.

Then send Bell & a prospect to the Phillies for Taylor & a couple of other prospects. Now you have your power hitting centerfielder.

I believe the holes can be filled and the Padres can win in 2010.

So tell me what YOU think it will take for the Padres to both win and contend in 2010

C in Padreland

December 9, 2009

Possible Catchers in the Padres future?

With the Marlins declining the $2.6 million option on LH hitting Ross Gload would he make a good backup for Hundley?

With the Rockies declining the $4 million option on Torrealba would he make a good backup in SD?

The Royals declined the $3.3 mil option on Miguel Olivo. He has the best power of the bunch. Would he be a good fit returning to SD?

The Padres could also make trades that could bring back a good young catching prospect.

I have listed the top catching prospects below. Not all are available in trade and some may not be what the Padres are looking for in a catcher. Several play for teams that stand in need of players at positions the Padres have players available to trade.

Minnesota, Philadelphia, and other have a need for either a Closer/Late inning reliever or a Third Baseman.

What trades do you think are possible or coming?

Top prospects at the Catcher position

CARLOS SANTANA - Indians 22     - AA
J.P.ARENCIBIA - Blue Jays 24    - AAA
JASON CASTRO - Astros 22    - AA
WILSON RAMOS - Twins 22        - AA
LOU MARSON - Phillies 23    - MLB
TAYLOR TEAGARDEN - Rangers 26    - MLB
MAX RAMIREZ - Rangers 25    - AAA
KYLE SKIPWORTH - Marlins 19    - Low A
TYLER FLOWERS - White Sox 24    - MLB
JESUS MONTERO - Yankees 19    - AA

A look forward at a possible 2010 Padres Roster

December 9, 2009

A Look Forward at the San Diego Padres 2010 Roster and Payroll

I thought I would get a head start on what the 2010 Padres roster would look like.

What follows is the players currently on the roster and their projected salaries. Arbitration eligible players salaries are in ranges and include what I would offer or do in paranthesis.

There are many question marks and much that may change in the next few days at the Winter Meetings.

Position Players

1B - Adrian Gonzalez     - $4.75 million
2B - David Eckstein     - $1.0 million
SS - Everth Cabrera     - 0.4000 million
3B - Kevin Kouzmanoff     - $3.0 - $4.0 million (Trade)
LF - Chase Headley    - 0.4115 million
CF - Tony Gwynn/    - 0.4050
RF - Kyle Blanks    - 0.4000
C  - Nick Hundley    - 0.4044

Will Venable        - .4023
Oscar Salazar        - .4000

Starting Pitching

Chris Young        - $6.250 million
Mat Latos        - 0.400
Kevin Correia        - $2.5 - $3.5 million (Sign to a 2 year $6 million deal with a team option)
Clayton Richard        - 0.405
Aaron Poreda/Sean Gallagher/Wade LeBlanc/Tim Stauffer/Cesar Carillo/Cesar Ramos

Heath Bell        - $3.5 - $4.5 million (Trade or sign to 2 year $7 million deal)
Edward Mujica        - 0.404
Luke Gregerson        - 0.400
Joe Thatcher        - 0.404          
Adam Russell, Greg Burke, Luis Perdomo, Ryan Webb, Mike Ekstrom and possibly Mark Worrell.

Payroll without trades or signing outside organization - $26.3362 - $29.362 million

$ the Padres have to spend with a $43 million payroll = $13.5 - $16.5 million

Middle infielder/Utility - especially one that can play SS
Starting Pitcher

What Do I think Will/Should happen for 2010

If the Padres trade Gonzalez they will be signaling they are giving up on the 2010 and quite possibly the 2011 season completely and will not bring in a fairly expensive FA like Cameron who will command $7 million plus. Gonzalez makes a very reasonable $4.75 million in 2010.

The Padres will not bring back enough in trade to offset the loss of fan support/goodwill and local revenue and production from Gonzalez to make a trade worthwhile for at least two seasons. For those reasons alone he will probably not be traded..

If the Padres retain both Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff, Correia and Bell all get the $2.5 - $3.5 million they are expected to get in arbitration the Padres are still $13.5 million under their $43 million payroll level at the beginning of the 2009 season.

Moorad and Hoyer have said  the Padres payroll will begin with a 4. In other words $40-49 million

I would think a trade of Bell and Kouzmanoff is much more likely than a trade of Gonzalez.

The Padres would save $7 - $9 million in 2010 and probably double that in 2011 by trading Bell and Kouzmanoff.

Trading both would also bring in 3+ good prospects.

So lets recap.

The Padres trade Gonzalez they save $4.75 million in 2010 and $5.5 million in 2011 and get 4-5 prospects.

If the Padres trade Kouzmanoff and Bell they will save $7-9 million in 2010 and $14-18 million in 2011.

If Hoyer is any good he will not have to trade Gonzalez to build the Padres into a contender in 2010 or 2011.

Henry Blanco a Met

December 7, 2009

Henry Blanco signed a 1 year $1.5 million deal to be the back up catcher for the New York Mets today.

The 38 year old Blanco spent the 2009 season with the Padres hitting .235 with six homers and 16 RBI in 204 at-bats while catching 60 games.

Many writers, including those on this blog, felt he would return to the Padres in 2010 to continue to mentor the Padres young starting catcher Nick Hundley.

Instead he will be mentoring Josh Thole, a great catching prospect in New York.

Drew Macias now a Diamondback

December 7, 2009

Well, we wont be seeing Drew Macias being used like a yo yo by the Padres to fill spots in the outfield as he is now the property of the Arizona diamondbacks.

Macias was called up and sent down 9 times in 2009 by the Padres when injuries struck. He is widely regarded as the best defensive outfielder in the Padres organization, but had never hit well enough to stick at the ML level.

He was signed to a minor league contract by the Diamondbacks with an invitation to spring training.

Lots of Articles Coming

December 9, 2009

I have had two major trips in the last two months, the latest back home to New Mexico for one of the happiest occasions, a family wedding.

I have been keeping track of the goings on in baseball, but my wife said NO LAPTOP on this trip!When the boss speaks, I listen.

I have written a ton during that period and I will try to get them all up over the next two days. Bear with me if some of the articles seem dated. They probably are.