What is Black Thinking?

Saturday June 19, 2010

I really do not understand what Bud Black is thinking.

Why is Eckstein leading off and Headley hitting 2nd?

Eckstein is hitting .296 with men on base this season and .297 career. He is the prototypical #2 hitter. He hits 24 points lower career with bases empty. So WTF is he doing hitting leadoff?

Headley is hitting under the Mendoza line with RISP this season (.253 career) and just .216 with men on base at all. That is the exact opposite of what you need for a batter in the #2 slot.Headley simply cannot get the job done when it counts this year. So why is he there?

Doesn't Black pay attention to situational stats?

Guess not.

From this point on I am only going to refer to Tony Gwynn as Jr. I was sitting in section 102 tonight and when I yelled "Tooonnnnyyyy" early in the game he struck out or hit a lazy fly ball and then when I yelled Junior, he got a hit. From now on he is simply Jr. until he proves he can consistently hit over .275.

The Orioles are the worst team in baseball. They win about one game a week. If the Padres struggle against them, and they have two straight games, then they don't deserve to win the pennant.

Tonight was Millwood's first win in the past 8 decisions. If the Padres can't beat him, they don't deserve to win the pennant. They had a chance to win the game tonight, but Headley did what he has done with men on base all year. He looked over matched and struck out on a pitch a foot off the plate.

The Kouzmanoff trade is looking worse and worse.Kouzmanoff is playing better defense, hitting better AND for more power right now. Maybe the Padres should have traded Headley.

Ok the rant is over and it time to go to bed with the Padres still in 1st place..

Padres win a wild one in 11

Monday September 21, 2009

The Padres overcame the first runs given up by Gregerson in more than a month and the 3rd blown save by Heath Bell in his last 7 appearances to take an 11-6 win over the Pirates in 11 innings tonight at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.

And it all came down to an improbable five run top of the 11th for the Padres. The Padres had scored more than 1 run in a bonus inning just once all season, despite playing in 16 extra inning games.

The Padres broke loose against Jeff Karstens and Denny Bautista for 5 runs on 4 hits, 2 intentional walks and a sac fly. The Padres attack in the 11th was paced by doubles from Chase Headley and Oscar Salazar.

Karstens took the loss for the Pirates.

Headley had a career high 5 hits in 6 at bats and drove in 2 runs, Tony Gwynn went 3 for 5 including an RBI single in the 11th, Salazar and Nick Hundley both drove in 3 and every Padres position player had at least one hit.

Adrian Gonzalez hit his 39th home run of the season. He is just one from having the only non Steroid enhanced 40 home run season in Padres history. Vaughn(50), Caminiti(40), and Nevin(41) are the only Padres to have hit 40 or more home runs.

Wade LeBlanc had his 4th straight good outing since being recalled giving up just 1 run in 5 innings on 5 hits and 3 walks, but did not factor in the decision.

Headley gets a shot at 3rd and blows it

Wednesday July 1, 2009

Chase Headley, the Padres current LF and a former 3B in the minors, got a shot to play 3B against RH pitcher Brian Moehler of the Houston Astros tonight.

He responded by playing extremely poor defense and going o for 3 at the plate. He misplayed a ball that was scored a hit and then threw the ball away with 2 outs in the 4th on a play that resulted in 3 unearned runs scoring.

I would guess Kevin Kouzmanoff will get the starts at 3B from now on unless he is traded.

Walter Silva took the loss while giving up 3 earned runs on 4 hits and 1 walk in 4 innings pitched. Silva has proven to be totally ineffective in his 1st two starts since returning from the disabled list. Lets hope its his last start of the season.

In other Padres news:
Kevin Towers says Peavy will likely not return until September if at all this season.
Nick Hundley's wrist is fractured and he will not return for at least 3 more weeks.
Brian Giles knee is not responding to treatment and he will not return before the All Star break.
We all wish Venable was hurt or sent down because he stinks.

Two Straight Wins in Interleague!

Sunday June 28, 2009

The San Diego Padres got the 2nd straight outstanding start from a beleaguered pitching staff tonight in Arlington against the Texas Rangers to win their first series in interleague play this season.

Padres starter Chad Gaudin got his 4th win of the season with a masterful 1 hit performance. Gaudin who has been plagued by walks this year gave up only 2 walks and 1 hit in 8 full innings.

Gaudin combined with Heath Bell to shut out the American League's best hitting team for 2-0 a victory.

Top prospects Kyle Blanks and Everth Cabrera continued to impress with Cabrera going 1 for 4 with a triple and a run scored and Blanks getting multiple hits for the 2nd straight game.

Scott Hairston broke out of a 2 for 22 slump going 3 for 4 with a solo home run and 2 rbi.

One of the most interesting things in the game for me was seeing Chase Headley swipe his team leading 7th stolen base. For a guy that often looks so slow getting to balls in left field to have 7 stolen bases is just amazing to me.

Interleague is over for the season and the 5-10 record is actually pretty good for the Padres. Now they come back home for 3 series against NL opponents starting with 4 games against the Houston Astros, 3 each against NL West rivals Los Angeles Dodgers (with Manny Ramirez returning from a 50 game suspension for steroid use) and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

TEN in a Row! Padres win again!

Monday May 25, 2009

On this day set aside so we can show our appreciation for the brave men and women who served in the military to keep our country safe and free, the San Diego Padres fought back from a 7-1 deficit in the 5th inning to post a 9-7 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Starting pitcher Chad Gaudin's struggles with control continued as he gave up 5 hits and 5 walks while allowing 7 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings.

In my opinion, Gaudin's control went away when he shaved the squirrell off his chin.

Adrian Gonzalez hit his league leading 17th home run in the 4th inning for the Padres 1st run.

The Padres plated 5 runs in the 8th and 1 in the 9th to tie the game at 7-7, then Chase Headley hit a 420 foot blast to left field with Henry Blanco on 1st base to drive in the go ahead runs.

Heath Bell came in to shut the Diamondbacks down for his 13th save of the season.

Catcher Nick Hundley and manager Bud Black were thrown out of the game by home plate umpire Eric Cooper on a disputed call at the plate in the 6th inning. Cooper blew the play, but it didn't matter as the Padres pummelled the Diamondbacks in the late innings.

Take a litle sip of the kool aid folks, the Padres are now 23-22 on the season.

And today the Padres win their tenth game in a row!

Changes the Padres don't need to make.

Friday May 15, 2009

Changes the Padres don't need to make
and Ten Changes they DO need to make.

I keep reading alot of articles saying the Padres need to make drastic changes in their roster and to a certain extent those calls for changes are well placed. After all the Padres are in the midst of a 4-19 collapse with 11 straight losses on the road.

For all of you, including Tim Sullivan over at San Diego's rag they call a newspaper, who are stupid enough to want to replace Kevin Kouzmanoff in the starting 8 with Will Venable, keep in mind that Venable has more strike outs than hits as well this season, and that is at the AAA level.

In other words, Venable is NOT hitting any better than Kouzmanoff and you want to give him a regular starting job?

That is downright idiotic. At least we know what Kouzmanoff can do and we also know that Kouzmanoff is a slow starter who will probably end up around .270 for the season with around 20 home runs if the last two seasons are any indication.

I do believe the Padres need to make some changes, but throwing a #4 (at best) or #5 outfielder like Venable into a starting position is ludicrous.

As a FOURTH or FIFTH outfielder, Macias at least plays spectacular defense so the runs he takes away with his defense may compensate for his mediocre bat on a part time basis, but Venable is playing below average defensively in CF this season, so his defense would not.

Venable is not good defensively in CF as either Gerut or Hairston. Last year it graded out with Gerut at +5.8 UZR, Hairston +3.3 and Venable +2.4. At a +9.5 career UZR, Gerut is one of the better defensive CF in the game.

And how long will it take Headley to begin to play defense at 3B at the level Kouzmanoff is currently playing? How many games will be lost until he does. 1, 2, more? Remember, Headley has not regularly played the position since 2007 and he does not even take gound balls at the position in practice currently.

How many of you really believe, based on 44 abs against RHP this season, that Hairston should be a everyday starter? Especially given how poorly he has done of 650+ career at bats against RHP. Hairston's BA against RHP since May 1st of .242 has been much closer to his career average of .234/.294/.414/.709 and, as they always do, will continue to regress towards the mean as the season continues. ( VS RHP in 2008 - .224/.309/.399/.708)

Hairston is good against LHP. Always has been (career - .287/.337/.549/.886, 2008 - .280/.316/.580/.896) and this season he has been a monster (.381/.447/.762/1.209). So platoon Hairston at ALL of the outfield positions against LHP if you want, but don't give him ANY position as an everyday starter. We have seen that dog, and it don't hunt.

And if you trade away Peavy now, what is that saying to Gonzalez and the players you do want to sign long term about the teams commitment to winning? In my opinion it kills any chance of getting Gonzalez signed to an extension. Would you sign a contract knowing the team is not going to be any better than it is right now for several years to come?

So those are changes the Padres absolutely should not make.

So what changes do I think the Padres need to make?

#1 Fire Bud Black - It is Black's job to get these guys to relax and perform and he has failed. No, he has not been given a big league squad and there have been a lot of injuries, but this team is still better than the 4-19 record they have in their last 23 games.

#2 DFA Duaner Sanchez, and cut Luis Perdomo. Bring up Greg Burke and Even Scribner or Gabe DeHoyos to replace them and go with just 12 relievers. My last post was dedicated to Sanchez so I am not going to rehash that. Perdomo has simply not shown he has what it takes, yet. He may in a couple of years, but taking a Rule V guy that did not dominate at the lower levels is risky, and this gamble did not pay off.

#3 Get Kyle Blanks ready to play LF. The Padres are already starting to get him some playing time in LF and once he is able to adjust to AAA pitching (he has hit just .200 over his past 10 games), he should also have had a chance to start 40 or 50 games in LF and be ready to make the jump later in the season.

#4 Get Headley some time at 3B. As I mentioned above, Headley has not played the position reguarly since 2007 and is not taking ground balls at 3B now. Sit Kouzmanoff against some RHP that have been historically bad matchups for him and let Headley get a few starts at 3B. By the time Blanks is ready to be called up, Headley will have been able to play at least 5 or 6 games at 3B and have taken grounders in practive for a couple of months.

#5 Play Jody Gerut. Gerut is a rhythm hitter and needs at bats daily to hit well. Gerut and Hairston is a great platoon by the numbers, but Gerut struggles against all pitching when he isn't out there daily. Gerut is also a better fielder than Hairston and has good power. As Tampa showed last season and several clubs are showing this season, good defense that takes away runs is as important to winning as bats that add runs. This is especially true in Petco, where runs are at a premium.

#6 Start looking for new trainer and strength coach. While some of the injuries cannot be blamed wholy on them, their job is to condition the athletes on the Padres to minimize injuries, and given the fact that the Padres have been consistently among the top 5 in player days on the DL each of the past 8 seasons and are on pace to break 1100 player days on the DL this season, they are failing miserably.

The Padres are the only team to have over 880 player days on the DL in the last 10 years and they have done it 5 times including the only 2 seasons over 1000 player days on the dl since they began keeping records of this stuff. REgardless of whether the players or anyone else says they like the trainers hee, their results stink.

#7 Figure out how to turn Kouzmanoff's bat around. This guy hit everywhere he went before the Padres started tinkering with his swing. Maybe it is the Padres approach and not Kouzmanoff that is to blame here. SO Lefebvre do your job and figure it out. You can't trade him while he is hitting .229 and sending him down does no good since Headley would take a month or more to readjust to third base.

So get Kouzmanoff hitting so you CAN trade him for help at SS or for the pitching staff when Blanks is ready to come up and take over LF.

#8 Put Brian Giles back into the front of the rotation and sit him down and say, "Brian, we know you are having problems off the field. It is time to focus on doing your job and let baseball take your mind off those things. SO get out their and do what you do best, hit the damn ball."

If you want to rest him, send Hairston or Gerut or even Macias out there against a few lefties since Giles has hit just .255 off LHP over the past 3 seasons and just .111 this season.

#9 Trade for a decent everyday SS. Cabrera did well while he was here but it was 13 abs and he isn't expected back until Late June at the earliest. Luis Rodriguez is not the answer when he comes back. He is a below average defender and he is a slightly above replacement level hitter. He could be a good platoon player, but playing everyday seems to be beyond his abilities.

So who can the Padres trade for? They are not going to get a top level prospect like Alcides Escobar or Yunel Esobar or even Jason Donald, but maybe a player like Argenis Diaz or Reid Brignac who is blocked by a ML player and a top prospect will be available for a package of prospects.

#10 All Padres fans need to remember 4 words -

REGRESSION TOWARDS THE MEAN!

What does that mean? It means that players will regress towards their career averages as the season progresses unless there is some underlying problem like an injury. So put them out there and let them play their way out of their slumps. Eventually they will start hitting enough ABOVE their career averages to end up near their career averages when the season is over. In other words there will be a hot streak to average out a slump at some point if you just shut up and let them play.

I have had my say. Now What do you think?

Padres Farm System Update

Sunday May 10, 2009

San Diego Padres Farm System Update

According to Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union Tribune, Kyle Blanks will begin playing left field for AAA Portland on Monday.

If Blanks is successful at this experiment in left field, Kevin Kouzmanoff may be traded to make room for Chase Headley at third base.

Headley is the template for the Padres move of an infielder to a corner outfield position. Headley made a successful transition from 3B to LF last season and his defense has improved this season. Blanks has superior speed to Headley, though at 6'6" and 285 he is far from the prototypical LF.

Blanks hitting .291/.391/.527/.918 with 7 hr in 31 games is forcing the Padres hand in finding a place for him to play on the big league squad.

Elsewhere in the Padres farm system,

• Kellen Kulbacki is made his first start of the season on Saturday for the AA San Antonio Missions after shoulder surgery in the off season.
• 2003 1st round draft pick Tim Stauffer is throwing well in extended spring training and should be ready to join the Missions later this week.
• Mat Latos has not allowed a run in 3 starts and 11.2 innings with the low A Ft Wayne Tincaps so far this season and may soon be promoted to High A Lake Elsinore.

In unrelated news, Padres beat writer Tom Krasovic was let go by the Union Tibune as part of a waive of layoffs by the new ownership group. In all 192 people were let go.

Padres Swept by the Giants

Wednesday April 22, 2009

One day after Jake Peavy turned in his worst pitching performance in 7 seasons as a Padre in a 8-3 loss, Chris Young and the Padres bullpen turned in a gem of a pitching performance in a 1-0 loss.

Both games were marked by an anemic offense that time after time failed to produce timely hits with men on base.

In both games the Padres out hit the Giants but failed to drive runners in when given the opportunities, leaving 9 men on base Tuesday and 10 today.

In today's game the lack of defensive prowess in LF proved to be the final blow as Chase Headley was unable to track down a fly ball to the gap that clearly was his ball to go and get. I dislike the what ifs, but in this case a faster outfielder with greater range like Scott Hairston would have gotten to that ball, preventing the run from scoring and ending the inning.

Let's hope this is not a sign of things to come.

Padres Batting Projections for 2009

Saturday March 7, 2009

Padres Batting Projections for 2009.

I have broken down my projections into two different types:

• Projections based on 2008 stats adjusted to 600 AB equivalents in 2009.

• Projections based on 600 AB and Adjustments for Historical Improvement and Declines for Players Age and Length of ML Service.

While neither of these are perfect projection methods as injuries and inexplicable declines do happen(see Khalil Greene 2008), but these two types of projections will give you a chance to chose for yourself where you think their performance may end up.

Bench spot projections are based on their 2008 abs with the exception of Burke.

If I don't get to lazy, I will be adding another post for the rest of the NL West Teams one by one in the coming weeks.

I don't know how well these tables will format here and some of my formulas seem to be rounding OPS down but here goes:

Projected 2009 Stats based on
2008 stats and 600 abs per position
(1200 abs total from Bench)

Team Padres
Position Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
LF Headley 0.270 0.340 0.420 0.760 16 60
CF Gerut 0.300 0.350 0.494 0.845 21 80
RF Giles 0.300 0.400 0.456 0.856 12 60
4th OF - 300 abs Hairston 0.250 0.300 0.479 0.779 17 32
OF Subtotal 0.280 0.348 0.462 0.812 66 232

1B Gonzales 0.280 0.380 0.510 0.890 35 120
2B Eckstein 0.265 0.343 0.349 0.692 4 52
SS Rodriguez 0.287 0.326 0.351 0.677 0 36
3B Kouzmanoff 0.275 0.300 0.433 0.732 23 80
C Hundley/Other 0.240 0.300 0.359 0.659 10 50
IF Subtotal 0.269 0.330 0.400 0.730 72 338

Bench Abs Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
246 Floyd 0.268 0.349 0.455 0.804 11 38
120 Blanco 0.292 0.325 0.392 0.717 3 12
325 E Gonzalez 0.274 0.329 0.385 0.713 7 33
165 Burke* 0.260 0.320 0.273 0.593 2 12
856 Bench Subtotal 0.274 0.331 0.376 0.707 23 95

Fielders Subtotal 0.274 0.336 0.413 0.749 161 665

Pitchers (Current Pitchers) 0.165 0.200 0.182 0.382 2 12

Total 0.247 0.302 0.355 0.657 163 677


2009 Projections Based on
600 abs or 2008 abs (whichever is larger)
with adjustments for historical changes at
age and years of ML service

Team Padres
Position Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
LF Headley 0.278 0.350 0.433 0.783 18.540 78.280
CF Gerut 0.306 0.357 0.504 0.861 26.132 80.264
RF Giles 0.292 0.389 0.444 0.832 11.676 61.299
4th OF - 300 abs Hairston 0.255 0.306 0.489 0.795 17.340 31.620
OF Subtotal 0.283 0.351 0.467 0.818 74 251

1B Gonzales 0.300 0.408 0.547 0.935 38.628 127.687
2B Eckstein 0.262 0.340 0.346 0.685 3.669 49.530
SS Rodriguez 0.293 0.333 0.358 0.691 0.000 36.900
3B Kouzmanoff 0.295 0.322 0.465 0.785 24.679 90.132
C Hundley/Other 0.247 0.309 0.370 0.655 15.450 74.160
IF Subtotal 0.280 0.342 0.417 0.750 82 378

Bench Abs Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
246 Floyd 0.265 0.346 0.451 0.796 10.896 37.640
120 Blanco 0.284 0.316 0.381 0.698 2.919 11.676
325 E Gonzalez 0.279 0.336 0.393 0.727 7.140 33.660
165 Burke* 0.265 0.326 0.278 0.595 2.040 12.240
856 Bench 0.274 0.331 0.376 0.706 23 95

Fielders Subtotal 0.279 0.341 0.420 0.761 179 725

Pitchers .170 .206 .187 .393 2.06 12.36

Total 0.251 0.307 0.362 0.669 181 737


OPS Figures are rounded down to nearest thousandth.

If there is anyone out there who can help me post actual tables from a spread sheet here, please contact me.

Thanks, Web