Monday, January 26, 2009

Why the Cubs Need Jake Peavy

Why the Cubs Need Jake Peavy.

January 26, 2009

The Padres and the Cubs have been kicking around the idea of a Peavy to the Cubs trade since the Winter Meetings.

There have been discussions set forth that argue pros and cons of Peavy being traded and from both sides of the issue Cubs and Padres).

I am going to set down here why I think the Cubs NEED Peavy broken down into 3 issues or areas.
1) The Cubs team shortcomings in 2008.
2) The Cubs team shortcomings in 2009.
3) How those weaknesses were exposed in the 2008 playoffs.

Then I am going to tell you the one critical skill Jake Peavy brings to the table that will help the Cubs finally win a World Series regardless of their other weaknesses as a team.

1) Cubs shortcoming in 2008

While the Cubs had a nice regular season in 2008, they proved that they did not have the dominating pitching necessary to shut down a good offensive team and their mediocre defense was exposed under pressure.

The 1st problem was pitchers unable to go late into games.

Throughout 2008, Dempster consistently collapsed when forced to pitch with a high pitch count. For the season, after 90 pitches his era increased to 4.50 and over 100 pitches it increased to over 6.00. Career its even worse with an ERA of 4.90 after pitch 90.

Lilly was even worse in 2008, with an ERA of 10.18 after the 90th pitch.

In game One of the playoffs, Dempster completely collapsed when he got close to 100 pitches and gave up 4 earned runs and got only 2 outs in the 5th inning.

In game Three, Harden could only go 4.1 innings and the bullpen had to pick up the slack.

With Harden injured and likely to only make half his starts in 2009, this problem figures to be worse.

The 2nd problem was head to head.

Dempster and the other Cubs pitchers not named Zambrano were not able to step up their game and be better than the other teams best, the other teams Ace. Overall Cubs pitchers other than Zambrano had a .372 winning percentage against the other teams #1. Not good.

In the playoffs you are facing the other teams best.

In games One and Three of the 2008 playoffs a good pitcher was unable to step up and be a stopper. That was the whole problem. Good pitchers, not great pitchers, were not able to step it up a notch against the superior competition you find in the playoffs.

The defense gave up a 3rd game.

That brings us to the 3rd weakness of the Cubs in 2008,

A mediocre defense up the middle. Under playoff pressure mediocre can easily fall apart and become real bad.

Exhibit #1. In game Two of the playoffs DeRosa and Lee committed errors at critical times in the 2nd inning and Theriot threw one away in the 9th and gave away 5 unearned runs. The defense was not able to step up, and the Zambrano was not able to recover from 4 unearned runs in the 2nd inning.


2) Cubs Shortcomings in 2009

Pitching.

You are probably saying, how can he say that? Easy.

After the 2008 season Rich Harden had a choice to make. Have surgery or rehab his shoulder. He chose rehab. He will

be lucky to get half a season in with 15-18 starts being an educated guess (from Peter Gammons and CHONE projections) as to how many starts he might get in 2009. So who picks up the other 15-18 starts?

Marquis and his 30+ starts are gone.

Sean Gallagher is gone.

That is 55 starts gone.

Who picks up those starts? Marshall? Hill? Olson? They may throw the starts, but more than likely not as effectively as Harden and Marquis.

Dempster in his 11th major league season had a career year. His ERA was nearly 2 points lower than his career average of about 4.7 going into the season and he pitched 140 more innings. Chances are he doesn't repeat 2008, but falls back closer to his career average for ERA in 130-140 innings and struggles to win 10 games.

I can count on one hand the number of guys who came back out of the pen and had two consecutive sub 3.00 era seasons. Do you really think that Dempster is going to be one of them? Not likely.

Normally what happens when a pitcher has that huge of an increase in innings is that he gets hurt the following year and sees an increase in his ERA of at least a full point. That is far more likely an outcome for Dempster in 2009 than to throw 200+ innings with a 2.96 ERA again.

Weak Defense all around.

Uber Utility Man Mark DeRosa, and his -4.2 UZR at 2b and +0.1 UZR at SS and +4.5 in the OF, is gone. In his 7 seasons, DeRosa had a career UZR at 2B of -4.9, -1.4 at SS and +13.9 in the OF.

Now Aaron Miles will be patrolling the middle infield and subbing in the outfield. Last season Miles had a 1.1 UZR at 2B, 1.0 at ss, -0.9 at 3B and 0.0 in the OF. Over the 6 years of his career he has a -9.7 UZR at 2B and a -10.9 UZR at SS, the 2 positions he will be asked to play most in 2009.

For UZR, league average is 0.0 Numbers above zero are better and below zero are worse.

Overall I can't say that they have gotten better defensively at the Uber Utility Man position, only held steady in age.

Aramis Ramirez reverted to his normal defensive form in 2008 with a -3.3 UZR and a .945 Fp and 18 errors. This is more typical of how he plays the field than 2007. Expect him to stay close to those numbers in 2009.

Theriot was the Cubs main SS in 2008 and defensively he recorded a below average -0.4 at the position.

Bradley the oft injured now mans RF. He has played more than 100 games in the field only once in a 7 year career. Last season he recorded one of the lowest fielding percentage in the game for any position in the 20 games he played in RF. Granted he was returning from anterior cruciate ligament surgery in the off season, but it didn't get better late in the season, it got worse.

The best fielding starting outfielder on the Cubs team, Kusuke Fukodome, will be patrolling the bench as often as not in 2009 while playing in a CF platoon with Reed Johnson. And Pie is gone. No young guy to come in and be a defensive replacement late in games.

The OF as a whole will be below league average defensively.


The biggest reason the Cubs must have Peavy.


Peavy is not only a true Ace, Peavy is a stopper. The guy you can hand the ball to and expect that he will step up and be better than the other guys best. In his career Peavy has consistently stepped it up when its the other teams ace on the mound recording a .702 winning percentage for his career in those situations, better than his overall win percentage of .581.

THAT is the ultimate thing you look for in a playoff pitcher, the ability to step it up and consistently be better than the other teams best pitcher.

Late in games Peavy has been good too. Career he he has a 3.86 ERA after pitch 90 & 4.58 after pitch 105. In 2008 he was even better with a 3.24 era after the 90th pitch.

Peavy has averaged 30.33 starts since 2003 when first he started the season in the ML. In 2008 the Padres held him out only because the team was already so far back in in the standings in late May. According to news reports in the San Diego Union Tribune at the time, Peavy didn't feel he needed to go on the DL, but the team erred on the side of caution because the team was playing so poorly.

You can count on him taking the ball. He has a warrior mentality and he does better when the competition is better.

Those are the reasons the Cubs NEED Jake Peavy if they are going to make a run at winning a World Series in 2009.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

A Few Marketing Ideas for the Padres

January 21, 2009

Geoff over at Ducksnorts and Jbox (or dex I forget) over at Gaslamp Ball started talking about what the Padres could do to draw more fans.

Both said they were not marketers, and that got me thinking.

Hey! I AM in marketing. What can I do to help out?

So here is my little stream of consciousness rant on baseball marketing.


1st – Make a Sunday Summer Season Ticket package for Dads and their kids.

The Six Sundays of Summer. June 21st to Aug 23rd.

Kids are the future. Getting kids to the games creates the fanatics, like me, of the future.
You have a Family night on Fridays right now, but many Dads can only really have time on Sundays.

2nd – Give EVERY Season Ticket holder a chance to get up close with the players.
For years the Padres held a season ticket holders autograph session with the players and coaches. Regardless of the size of your season ticket you got to go. Once Petco opened that all changed and now only us full season ticket holders get in.

I don’t think the Padres realize how many people bought season tickets just for that privilege. They may have only attended 5 or six games a year on that 20 or 40 game package, but they BOUGHT it so they would have a chance to meet the players.

BRING IT BACK!


3rd – Sponsor Tailgate parties!
Bring in the official radio station (or other stations) and have a broadcast from the tailgate parking lot. Allow Vendors (that pay you big money to do it) to give away samples of their drink or free food.


4th – Sponsor a Local Elementary School for Sunday games during the school year.
To my reckoning that is about 6 games. Trot the kids out onto the field before the game and let us all cheer for them. It will be an experience they will never forget and it will engender a life long love for the Padres and baseball.

Get the players out to local elementary schools all during the school year to hype up the program and do community service work.

Stick them up in those seats in nosebleed that you can’t sell most Sundays anyway and you will make out from all the concessions and other licensed stuff they will buy. They will love it and you will benefit big time. Shoot, it’s probably a tax write off so you will make out in 4 ways – publicity, lifelong fans, concessions and taxes.


5th – Bring back the Compadres Club.

Let me tell you a story. In 2002 I was working 80+ hours per week as the owner of my own direct marketing firm. I was, and am still, a full season ticket holder, but my plan going into the year was to only make about half the games and give the rest away to my employees as bonuses (and a tax write off for me).

I don’t know if you remember, I wish I couldn’t because it was painful to watch, but the Padres stunk that year. Lost 90 something games.

Well, come the middle of July I noticed that I was at about 40 games attended.

Some of the games I had only made for a few innings, but I was still going. Sometimes I even gave away my season seats and then bought a cheap seat, paid for parking and watched for the last 3 or 4 innings. If I was diligent I could still get my Gold Star pin.

Why? Why would I do that?

WELL, for the bat they gave away for going to 70 plus games, a Gold Star pin that only about 700 people would get and for the opportunity to walk on the field with my bat held high on that last game of the year.

It was a point of honor.

And it wouldn’t be the same to just give it to me for being a season ticket holder like they did this year. Where is the fun in that?

The fun was in making sure I had a ticket even if I had to buy another one and racing in before the 7th inning when the Compadres Club Machines closed and running that damned card.

The Padres club also engendered a camaraderie amongst those who stood in line to swipe those cards. We made friends with other fans, not just those that sat in our section. We went on road trips together as fellow Padres fans. We looked forward to seeing those people in line.

Getting a season ticket holders Compadres Club card also made us feel special.

We got a discount in the Padres store because of that card. We probably bought 30-40% more in dollar value than we other wise would have because of that 10 or 15% discount. You won.

Now I don’t buy anything in the store. It is cheaper elsewhere and there is no that sense of belonging that I got by running my card and getting a small discount.

And most importantly from a marketing stand point, the Compadres Club captured the contact information from fans. It gave you an in house list of people to market to. It is ALWAYS more successful and more profitable to market to people who are already buying some of your product(s).

Add in a “tell a friend” referral bonus like one free seat upgrade to some really great “little league” seats behind home plate for anyone who refers a season ticket buyer and you may even get more value for your advertising dollar.

BRING IT BACK!


6th – Have Fans throw out the first pitch on the last game of the season.

Use that “Jersey off a Players Back” drawing to do three things.
One - Raise money for charity.
Two - Capture fan information. (See Compadres Club for why that is crucial)
Three - Bring fans to the ballpark regardless of record for those last few games.

This is how it would work.

The last MONTH of the season you would sell the Jersey off a players back scratch off tickets.

If the fans did not get a winner, they would get to fill in their contact info on the back and drop it off at a Compadres Club location for a chance to win
Grand Prize(s) – Throw out the First Pitch on the Final Day of the Season
1st Prize – 2 of the best seats in the house or Owners Box seats.
2nd Prize – A Signed Baseball from that season’s star player.
3rd Prize – A $25.00 gift card for the Padres Store.

You would have a drawing on the 2nd to last game to announce the winners.


7th – Have Padres PLAYERS throw out the first pitch at local Little League games.

Especially their season openers. Can you imagine how excited those kids will be for Padres baseball if even a Bullpen Pitcher or a Backup Catcher shows up to throw out the first pitch at one of their games? And if it is the Star pitcher or the Local boy turned All Star its all that much better. WOW!

They will drag their parents kicking and screaming to a few games at Petco just because of that PR appearance. And its FREE to you!


8th – Add a “Tell a Friend” bonus for Season ticket holders
If you refer someone buys season tickets you get an upgrade for one game for awesome seats behind home plate. Or one Field Level ticket for every seat in your season ticket package for some games that you will have a hard time selling anyway like mid week games against the Pirates or Marlins or something like that.

The companies I consult for are seeing 30%-40% of their revenue come from referrals. The people who send them those referrals are compensated for them at a rate that is much less than the amount it would normally cost the company to generate a new sale, and they are GLAD to do it.

You are not using a fundamental marketing strategy.


That is a good start off the top of my head. Anymore and you will have to pay my consulting fee and I am not cheap. LOL.

Seriously, minor league teams in the Padres system are doing a better job of marketing their teams and building their fan base. This is supposed to be the Major Leagues. Where is the major league marketing talent?

Larry Lucchino was good at marketing and he had Charles Steinberg DDS to help him. They were so focused on making the fan experience a fun one, that they increased ticket and licensed merchandise sales even when the team was losing.

I've had my say. Now what do you think?

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

2009 Padres Payroll Projections Redux

January 20, 2008 (Updated 1/21/09)

2009 Padres Payroll Projections Redux

Some Free Agent signings have happened and all the arbitration eligible players have been signed so I thought I should update this post.

When its all said and done the Padres will still be right at that much discussed $40 million budget for payroll in 2009.

San Diego Padres 2009 Contract Projections

Players with guaranteed salaries for 2009

Jake Peavy – $11.0 million
Chris Young – $4.5 million
Adrian Gonzalez – $3.0 million
Brian Giles - $9.0 million with $3 million buyout.

Total $ Guaranteed - $27.5 million


Arbitration Eligible Players
Jody Gerut $0.700m (2008) - 2009 Est - $1.5 - $2.5 m (Signed for $1.775m)
Scott Hairston $.406m (2008) - 2009 Est - $.750 - $1.5 m (Signed $1.250m)
Heath Bell $0.420m (2008) - 2009 Est - $2.0 - $2.5 m (Signed for $1.225m)
Luis Rodriguez $0.4025m (2008) 2009 Est - $0.410 - $.600m (Signed $0.675m)

Total Arbitration Eligible 2008 salaries - $1.9825 million Est 2009 Salaries - $7.1 million worst case ($4.925 Actual
)

Free Agents signed after Original December 15, 2008 Article

David Eckstein - $0.850m
Henry Blanco - $0.750 (Signed 1/21/09)

Total for 9 Signed Players = $34.005m


On 25 Man Roster & Under Team Control - 2008 Salaries Listed
Kevin Kouzmanoff - $0.410m (2008-not arbitration eligible)
Edgar Gonzalez - $0.390m (2008-not arbitration eligible)
Chase Headley - $0.410m (2008-not arbitration eligible)
Nick Hundley - $0.410m (2008-not arbitration eligible)
Mike Adams - $0.410m (2008-not arbitration eligible)
Cha Seung Baek - $0.3925m (2008-not arbitration eligible)
Josh Geer - $0.390m (2008-not arbitration eligible)
Justin Hampson - $0.4025m (2008-not arbitration eligible)
Cla Meredith - $0.415m (2008-not arbitration eligible)
Scott Patterson - $0.390m (2008-not arbitration eligible)
Matt Antonelli - $0.390m (2008-not arbitration eligible)
Will Venable - $0.390m (2008-not arbitration eligible)
Travis Denker - $0.390m (2008-not arbitration eligible)
Drew Macias - $0.390m (2008-not arbitration eligible)
Total 2008 Salaries - $6.395 million
Total if remaining 2 slots are filled at major league minimum of $0.400m - $6.560m


Total Current & Projected Player 2009 Salaries - $40.585m (Updated 1/21/09)

Some of those players won't be on the 2009 Roster opening day roster and other minor league signees and major league minimum type of players will be on the 2009 roster.

A 2nd catcher has to be added whether from the minor league signing of Eliezer Alfonzo or from a FA like Ausmus. Either way it will be at or near the major league minimum.

The Padres minor league signings like Mark Prior (will make $1.0m if he makes ML roster), Kevin Correia (will make $0.750m if he makes ML roster) and Chris Burke (will make $0.650m if he makes ML roster) are not on that list.

If all three (Prior, Correia and Burke) make the roster, the 2009 Payroll will be $41.750m (as of 1/21/09)