Trade winds begin to blow through San Diego

Monday June 20, 2011

The Padres get swept by the sad sack Twins & talk of Padres players finding homes in new cities in the next month has turned from an if to a when.

Padres closer Heath Bell and his $7 million salary is a certainty to be moved.

Chad Qualls and his $6 million 2012 option are another certainty to be moved.

Ryan Ludwick is making nearly $7 million and will be a free agent after the season. Waive buh bye to him in the coming weeks also.

Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett are also likely gone with salaries that total $14.5 million in 2012.

Brad Hawpe and his $6 million option for 2012 WOULD be a certainty to be traded, but the Padres would likely have to pay his option buy out of $1 million to get someone to take the bum off the Padres hands.

So ...

Ludwick to the Phillies, Braves, Mariners or maybe the Tigers

Bell to Cardinals, Rangers or ??

Qualls to Rays, Yankees, Rangers or Cardinals.

Harang to the Cubs, Tigers or ??

Bartlett to Red Sox

Hudson to ??

Hawpe to AAA. Ok, maybe the Angels would take a flyer on him for a PTBNL or a little better if Padres pick up buyout. Maybe the Orioles. D Lee is not exactly tearing it up there and the ballpark is built for Hawpe's swing.

Adams likely will stay a Padre because even a win in arbitration will likely not net him more than $4 million for 2012 and that is a cheap price for the closer he would become in Bell's absence.

Now the question becomes, what will the Padres get in return for the 5-6 veteran players that will likely be traded away in the coming weeks.

What do you think Padres fans? Who will go and what will the Padres get in return. Will it be enough to help make the Padres a contender in the next few years?

Worst Stat Ever?

Sunday May 8, 2011

Happy Mothers Day!

In keeping with my "worst" theme, I want to talk about what is possibly the worst measure of a players performance.

Win-Loss for Starting pitchers. Really pitchers of any kind.

Want to know just how ridiculous it is to even attempt to use won-loss as a stat to measure the performance of a starting pitcher?

The San Diego Padres starting pitchers have 21 quality starts in 33 games, but just 6 wins. That means that in 21 games the Padres starting pitcher has gone 6 innings while giving up 3 runs or less, but have recorded a win in just 6 of those games.

Tim Stauffer has a 1.38 ERA in his last 4 games giving up just 4 runs in 26.1 IP (and a 2.61 ERA in his 7 starts this season) but has no wins to show for it. 

Prior to last nights game Dustin Moseley had an ERA of 1.63 having giving up just 7 earned runs, but had only 1 win in those 6 starts. The Padres have been SHUTOUT in 4 of his 7 starts.

And somehow wins and losses are supposed to represent the performance of these two Padres pitchers? NOT!

These two guys, and the Padres pitching staff as a whole, have been lights out. 

The defense, while not as good as last years version, is ranked 10th in baseball in UZR and 7th in DRS. 

The OFFENSE for the Padres has been, well, offensive. Even the Petco factor cannot explain how poorly they have done. Many games have featured four or five players hitting under .200 in the starting lineup simultaneously. The Padres are leading MLB in being shutout with 8 and they have the worst batting average with runners in scoring position in this century - by FOURTY (40) points.

So when talking about pitchers performance lets just completely eliminate wins and losses. The wins & losses recorded by these Padres pitchers have had absolutely no relation with their performance on the mound. Those losses are the result of an unprecedented lack of hitting by the Padres team as a whole.

So from now on,

If you want to mention ERA - OK

If you want to mention WHIP - OK

If you want to mention FIP, xFIP, or tERA (my current favorite) - OK
If you want to mention BABIP, K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 - OK 

Just do not even bring up Wins & Losses.

Worst and Worser

Friday May 6, 2011

Yesterday I gave you the bad news and it got worse for the Padres since I posted that piece.

The Padres "best" hitter on the season so far, catcher Nick Hundley, was placed on the the 15 day DL with a strained oblique muscle.

Just two days ago the 2nd best hitter on the team so far this season, 2B Orlando Hudson, who was hitting a robust .245 at the time, was placed on the 15 day DL with a hamstring strain in his right leg.

Hundley was hitting above his career average so regression towards the mean would indicate his batting average will drop when he returns.

Hudson was below his career average & 23 points below his 2010 average so will likely improve only slightly when he returns but with less speed due to the hamstring injury. Less speed means even less XBH on a team that is sorely lacking in xbh.

Brad Hawpe is hitting just about what he did with Tampa Bay, so unless the Padres suddenly start playing their home games in Coors Field, don't expect much improvement from him. His 23k vs 4 bb is an excellent indicator of how lost he is at the plate.

Ryan Ludwick has shown some signs of life recently, but since he is currently hitting at almost exactly the same pace as his stint with the Padres in 2010, I am not holding out much hope there either.

The only true hope of improvement I see is in Will Venable who has shown absolutely no extra base power in 2011 after 13 hr & 31 xbh in 392 abs in 2010 and is hitting more than 50 points lower than both his career and 2010 batting average.

The Padres offense has regressed substantially in the past 3 days and any more injuries will simply compound an already critical problem.

Things are the worst I have ever seen offensively and getting worser.