Will the real David Eckstein please stand up

Tuesday March 23, 2010

David Eckstein has drawn alot of flack on the boards and blogs in recents months.

There is a mistaken idea that he is not a valuable addition to the San Diego Padres team and that even a replacement level player would be better. Let me dispel some of those notions.

I will start with what Eckstein irrefutably excelled at in 2009.

In 2009 Eckstein went .340/.387/.448/.835 when  it counts most for a #2 hitter, when men are on     base. I would say that is not only good, its exceptional.         (Photo by SD Dirk under Creative Commons License )

Of the past 5 years, for Eckstein only 2008 is anomalous in terms of hitting with men on base.
Eckstein hit at least .297 in each other year from 2005-2009 with men on base and has hit .297 for his career.

Looks like it is a repeatable skill. He does well at hitting with men on base almost every season.

Fangraphs has a stat called Clutch. (WPA / pLI – WPA/LI). It measures how a player does in high leverage situations. Eckstein had the highest clutch rating in MLB for a 2B.

In his first year at 2B, Eckstein only trailed Utley in the NL in WPA.(5th in MLB amongst 2B)
WPA is an important advanced metric because it establishes the contribution each player has made to his team's wins. Eckstein was doing something right last season to trail only Utley.

Eckstein made only two errors and was amongst the better 2B in the NL in PERCENTAGE of DP turned. As Bill James pointed out, NUMBER of DP may not be a good indicator of defense, but PERCENTAGE of DP turned most definitely is. Any supposed lack of arm strength should have shown up on % of DP turned. It didn't. He has an adequate arm at 2B.

There are at least two components of defense that UZR does not address: One, "arm", and two, skill at turning the double play. Both are important in measuring an infielders value to the team in wins.

The only part of UZR in which Eckstein was below average was range, which is still the most subjective of the fielding judgments. He was above average in the other 2 metrics.
0.9 DPR/-10.0 RngR/4.0 ErrR for a -5.1 UZR

Once Field FX from Sportvision has a full season of data, then we can say with some certainty if a player has great range or bad range. Great positioning or bad positioning. Until then, its all subjective since none of the metrics actually measures reaction times, or how far a player has to run to catch the ball from where he was positioned, or the speed of the batted ball (The soft, medium, hard ball speed as reported by stringers which is used in UZR is not objective data), or any of the things that would give us a true range metric.

I understand the desire for an All Star player at 2B for the Padres (or any other position than 1B for that matter), but Eckstein has not regressed much as a Padre nor is he a poor hitter when it counts or a poor fielder at 2B.

He is an average guy that brings fire and guts to the field while providing an example of the right way to approach the game from practice to the game.

If the Padres can go out and sign a Dan Uggla or Brandon Phillips or Ian Kinsler to a $1 or $2 or even $5 million contract, then I am all for sending Eckstein to the bench.

If Matt Antonelli can go to AAA Portland and hit anywhere near .387 (like he has so far in ST)  for 3 months or so, then bring him up and start him.

Until then, Eckstein (and his $1 million contract) fills an important role on the team and does it well enough that the Padres Front Office and Coaching staff apparently felt that players like Felipe Lopez  that signed relatively inexpensive free agent contracts (1 yr/$1 million + $1.2 million in bonuses based on # of PA) would not provide more value to the team.

If you see the math differently, take the time to explain your position and I will post it here.

Is Mauer's 8 year/$184 million contract good for baseball

Sunday March 21, 2010

In case you are the one baseball fan that has not heard yet, Joe Mauer signed an 8 year/$184 million extension with the Minnesota Twins today.

Many people are saying this contract is good for baseball because it proves that the small market teams can keep their big name talent.

1st let me say that I have an issue with calling Minnesota a small market team. Their DMA, or media market, is in the top 15 in baseball, unlike the Padres which is 29th according to Niellsen.

With their new stadium and new media contracts, the Twins revenues will rank in or near the top 10 teams.

Second, this sets a precedent that will make small market teams even less competitive.

Why?

Because no team can remain competitive for the long term with one player making such a large percentage of the ML payroll.

At $23 million, Mauer would make more than 33% of the Twins 2009 payroll of $65.299 million. Even at the $90-100 million that is being thrown around as their payroll of the future, 23 million is much more than 20%. With Mauer making $23 million, the Twins payroll has to be in the $115-$120 million range to make this contract tenable.

Otherwise it is still making up more than 20% of the MLB payroll for just one player and no team has been able to pay one player that much and stay competitive for more than one year.

According to Peter Gammons of ESPN, no team has ever made the World Series with one player making more than 20% of payroll and no team has won the World Series with one player making more than 16% of payroll.

To me the signing of Mauer will severely limit the Twins ability to contend in years to come.

To me this is not good for baseball. The Twins, long pointed to as a small market team that competes year in and year out, will likely not be able to compete after 2011.

Other small market teams forced to follow in the Twins footsteps by fan pressure to keep their top players, will not be able to compete either.

Today is a happy day for Twins fans and for the Mauer family, but a sad day for baseball as a whole.

Playing Pepper - Padres Predictions & Commentary

Sunday March 21, 2010

This article is reposted from the BBA Playing Pepper Series with a few small changes made for clarification such as adding the team name.

1) How was the Padres off-season?  What kind of grade would you give it?

The Padres had a relatively quiet, but still successful offseason. Jed Hoyer, the Padres new GM, filled positions of need with less than a handful of moves.

• Hoyer traded Kevin Kouzmanoff to the Oakland Athletics for former Padres fan favorite Scott Hairston and top A's prospect Aaron Cunningham. Both are RH hitting outfielders. Hairston plays good defense in both CF and LF and hits LHP extremely well, plus has shown Petco power. A Rare commodity indeed.
  
  This trade helped the Padre more on a defensive side than offensively. Moving headley out of LF and moving Blanks into LF full time improves the Padres defense by at least 9 runs. Venable playing RF full time improves the defense by another 8-9 runs or more. And a platoon of Gwynn and Hairston gives the PAdres plus defense across the outfield in 2010.

• Hoyer signed uber utility player Jerry Hairston Jr. Hairston Jr joined his little (but bigger) brother Scott on the Padres and brings all 4 of his gloves with him. Hairston Jr. can play all 8 positions in the field and provides plus defense at 2B and all three outfield positions. Along with his brother and Oscar Salazar, Hairston Jr. gives manager Bud Black one of the most versatile benches I have seen on a Padres team.

• Hoyer signed Jon Garland, a very durable pitcher who has averaged over 190 IP for the past 8 seasons, for a rotation that has been decimated by injuries in recent years. Last season the Padres used 15 starting pitchers including 7 rookies.

• Hoyer signed Yorvit Torrealba to a $750k contract to back up incumbent starter Nick Hundley. Torrealba had earlier turned down a 2 yr/5.6 million contract to return to the Rockies. He really does not have much power, but he calls a very good game and plays plus defense. He will likely start 50-70 games for the PAdres in 2010. A solid pickup for pennies on the dollar.

Overall I would give Hoyer a B- for his offseason moves.
While he failed to sign a big name FA or make a blockbuster trade that would make a splash, he did fill all the major holes on the roster and improve the team overall. Sometimes less is more.

2) What is the key to success for 2010?

Health!

Yes I know most people would say it is having the young players step up, but I believe all those young players have to do or the team to be successful is to stay healthy and do exactly as well as they did in 2009. After all, the bunch that will take the field in April are mostly the same ones that won 37 of their last 62 games in 2009.

So I say health.

The Padres have been among the most injured teams in baseball the past 3 seasons. They set the major league record for player days on the DL in succeeding years and would have broken their own record again if it was not for the hapless Mets. At one point in 2009, the Padres had 5 starting pitchers and 4 starting position players and the key bat off the bench all on the DL. 40% of the 25 man roster was on the DL. It is not a coincedence that that was the worst stretch in the season for win-loss record.

In 2010 they must stay healthy.

That starts with the pitching staff.
Chris young, the Padres Ace by default, has been snake-bitten for the past 3 seasons. He needs to make 30 or more starts and return to his pre-2008 form.

Mat Latos, the Padres budding ace, has never pitched more than 123 innings in a professional season due to injuries. While he has overpowering stuff, he must stay healthy.

Overall the Padres set a ML record by having 15 pitchers start games in 2009 and 15 players made their major league debut for the team.

3) What will be the Padres team strength?

The Bullpen.

The Padres had a great pen in 2009 ending up 7th in ERA and OPS allowed and they all return. Bell, Adams and Gregerson made up perhaps the toughet 7-8-9 combination in baseball.

In the Peavy and Hairston trades in 2009 the Padres added several good power pitchers for the bullpen in Adams and Russell, and they have two former 1st round picks  that may make the bullpen out of camp in Stauffer and Poreda plus a former top prospect in Sean Gallagher that is out of options.

And some of the Padres best pitching prospects are also relievers. Evan Scribner, Wynn Pelzer, Craig Italiano, among others.

4) What could be the Padres Achilles' heel?

Health and youth.

If the pitching staff cannot stay healthy and young players such as Cabrera, Blanks, Venable and Latos are not able to repeat the level of play they had in 2009, then the Padres are in for a long and disappointing season.

5) Who will be the Padres team MVP?

IF, and its a HUGE if, he is a Padres all season, Adrian Gonzalez will be the teams MVP.

If he is traded, my pick would be Kyle Blanks.

6) Will a rookie make a significant impact on the Padres in 2010, and if so, who?

Most of the top young players exhausted their eligibility as rookies in 2009. Everth Cabrera, Kyle Blanks, Clayton Richard, Mat Latos, Will Venable and Luke Gregerson all had enough IP or at bats to not qualify as a rookie in 2010.

In 2010 I do not see many rookies making the team. Possibly Matt Antonelli at mid-season if he finally gets it together at AAA or Lance Zawadzki if there are injuries on the Padres squad in the middle infield or possibly a reliever such as Evan Scribner if Heath Bell is traded away, but there just are not that many rookies who will make the major leagues youngest roster in 2010.

7) Who will be the breakout player for the Padres?

Kyle Blanks. I believe with a full year of at bats and getting to play just one position all season will give Blanks the confidence to excel. I predict "Gigantor" will explode in 2010, hitting 30+ hr and driving in 80+ runs.

8) Which player will drop off the most from 2009?

This is a very young team that should improve in 2010, but if I had to pick one player it would be Tony Gwynn Jr.

Jr. had never hit above .260 in parts of 3 ML seasons prior to joining the Padres and was on a high joining the team he grew up watching his father play for and getting to play in front of his hometown. He hit for a .270 or so average in the minors, so we know what kind of player he has been throughout his professional career. He may have a slight slump in 2010.

I am not predicting that will happen, mostly because he will be platooning with Scott Hairston in CF. He will have an opportunity to hit mainly against RHP and he has excelled at hitting RHP to this point in his career. Its LHP that have given him fits, so if he becomes the starter, he could struggle alot in that area.

9) Who is the most likely Padres player to be dangled as trade bait?

Adrian Gonzalez is the obvious choice here. Most people feel that a trade of Gonzalez is inevitable because the Padres just cannot afford the $20+ million salary he would command once his current contract is up after the 2011 season.

I also think that Heath Bell, Chris Young, Jon Garland, Jerry Hairston Jr. and Yorvit Torrealba could also be up for grabs if the Padres are struggling going into the All Star break.

10) What will be the Padres final record and divisional standing?

I am very optimistic going into this season. My prediction for 2010 is 81 wins and 3rd in the NL West.