Padres Batting Projections for 2009

Saturday March 7, 2009

Padres Batting Projections for 2009.

I have broken down my projections into two different types:

• Projections based on 2008 stats adjusted to 600 AB equivalents in 2009.

• Projections based on 600 AB and Adjustments for Historical Improvement and Declines for Players Age and Length of ML Service.

While neither of these are perfect projection methods as injuries and inexplicable declines do happen(see Khalil Greene 2008), but these two types of projections will give you a chance to chose for yourself where you think their performance may end up.

Bench spot projections are based on their 2008 abs with the exception of Burke.

If I don't get to lazy, I will be adding another post for the rest of the NL West Teams one by one in the coming weeks.

I don't know how well these tables will format here and some of my formulas seem to be rounding OPS down but here goes:

Projected 2009 Stats based on
2008 stats and 600 abs per position
(1200 abs total from Bench)

Team Padres
Position Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
LF Headley 0.270 0.340 0.420 0.760 16 60
CF Gerut 0.300 0.350 0.494 0.845 21 80
RF Giles 0.300 0.400 0.456 0.856 12 60
4th OF - 300 abs Hairston 0.250 0.300 0.479 0.779 17 32
OF Subtotal 0.280 0.348 0.462 0.812 66 232

1B Gonzales 0.280 0.380 0.510 0.890 35 120
2B Eckstein 0.265 0.343 0.349 0.692 4 52
SS Rodriguez 0.287 0.326 0.351 0.677 0 36
3B Kouzmanoff 0.275 0.300 0.433 0.732 23 80
C Hundley/Other 0.240 0.300 0.359 0.659 10 50
IF Subtotal 0.269 0.330 0.400 0.730 72 338

Bench Abs Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
246 Floyd 0.268 0.349 0.455 0.804 11 38
120 Blanco 0.292 0.325 0.392 0.717 3 12
325 E Gonzalez 0.274 0.329 0.385 0.713 7 33
165 Burke* 0.260 0.320 0.273 0.593 2 12
856 Bench Subtotal 0.274 0.331 0.376 0.707 23 95

Fielders Subtotal 0.274 0.336 0.413 0.749 161 665

Pitchers (Current Pitchers) 0.165 0.200 0.182 0.382 2 12

Total 0.247 0.302 0.355 0.657 163 677


2009 Projections Based on
600 abs or 2008 abs (whichever is larger)
with adjustments for historical changes at
age and years of ML service

Team Padres
Position Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
LF Headley 0.278 0.350 0.433 0.783 18.540 78.280
CF Gerut 0.306 0.357 0.504 0.861 26.132 80.264
RF Giles 0.292 0.389 0.444 0.832 11.676 61.299
4th OF - 300 abs Hairston 0.255 0.306 0.489 0.795 17.340 31.620
OF Subtotal 0.283 0.351 0.467 0.818 74 251

1B Gonzales 0.300 0.408 0.547 0.935 38.628 127.687
2B Eckstein 0.262 0.340 0.346 0.685 3.669 49.530
SS Rodriguez 0.293 0.333 0.358 0.691 0.000 36.900
3B Kouzmanoff 0.295 0.322 0.465 0.785 24.679 90.132
C Hundley/Other 0.247 0.309 0.370 0.655 15.450 74.160
IF Subtotal 0.280 0.342 0.417 0.750 82 378

Bench Abs Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
246 Floyd 0.265 0.346 0.451 0.796 10.896 37.640
120 Blanco 0.284 0.316 0.381 0.698 2.919 11.676
325 E Gonzalez 0.279 0.336 0.393 0.727 7.140 33.660
165 Burke* 0.265 0.326 0.278 0.595 2.040 12.240
856 Bench 0.274 0.331 0.376 0.706 23 95

Fielders Subtotal 0.279 0.341 0.420 0.761 179 725

Pitchers .170 .206 .187 .393 2.06 12.36

Total 0.251 0.307 0.362 0.669 181 737


OPS Figures are rounded down to nearest thousandth.

If there is anyone out there who can help me post actual tables from a spread sheet here, please contact me.

Thanks, Web