Should the Padres trade Peavy?

Friday May 22, 2009

Should the Padres trade Peavy and if yes should they trade him right now?

First let me say this, NONE of the reasoning for a trade should be based on how good or bad anyone THINKS the Padres will do this season or next.

I have heard lots of pundits and bloggers saying the Padres are washed up and are years away from contending and all that talk is total and complete hogwash - BS.

No one can be certain what will happen to any given team. Especially a team with as much good to great talent as the Padres.

With Peavy and Young anchoring the starting rotation, Bell at the back end of the pen and Adrian Gonzalez, Brian Giles and several other talented young players like Hairston, Kouzmanoff and Headley, the Padres have as much chance of winning the West or a Wild Card spot as any team in the NL.

The prognosticator with the best record over recent years, the CHONE system by Sean Smith, predicted the Padres would end up at 80-82 and in second place behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. At this point he looks like Nostradamus with the Padres being 3 games under .500 and 1/2 game out of 2nd.

As we have already seen, this Padres team can play with any team in the league, having played and won against the World Series Champion Phillies and the talented New York Mets. We have also seen the Padres team be extremely effective at home. Currently they Padres have the 2nd best home record in the NL at 14-6, that is .700 ball at home . If the Padres play just .400 ball on the road instead of .238, they have the 2nd best record in the NL at 26-15.

The dollar amount spent on a teams payroll is not the only indicator of potential and neither is the previous years win-loss record. As many teams have come from last one year to winning the division the next as have come from 1st place one year to 1st place the next year in this century.

So please, no more of the garbage that says the Padres CAN'T win or that they do not have the talent to contend. It simply isn't true.

So back to the question, SHOULD the Padres trade Jake Peavy?

If YES should they trade him Right Now?

The simple answer and short term answer is no.
The Padres are on a winning streak and playing well. Do not mess with the team chemistry and the streak. Plus with ticket sales already lagging, the Padres would be shooting themselves in the foot by trading away arguably the most popular player on the team.

While Peavy can only contribute to one win every five days, his absence would have a greater effect on the team as each of the pitchers in the rotation would move up a notch and another minor league pitcher (The Padres are already starting Josh Geer who is really just a minor league pitcher due to injuries to Baek and Hill) would have to be called up to fill the number 5 slot. Everyone would have a tougher row to hoe.

The long term answer is maybe.
The question mark here is the package the Padres are receiving in return for Peavy.

Peavy is the type of pitcher who makes the entire squad better. He can consistently put up 20+ QS and 15+ wins per season. More importantly Peavy is a stopper who can take the mound and control the outcome of the game with just his arm.

That being said, Peavy is just one player and can only play every 5th day. His value is high now and will never be higher regardless of how good this season ends up for him statistically. He is at an age that is considered the peak years for ML players.

If the Padres can get at least one player with upside as high as Peavy is currently playing at that they can control for 6 years and 3-4 other good prospects, then the trade would be worthwhile.

Given the fact that maybe one in ten Top 10 prospects on any given team becomes an impact player at the major league level, it would be foolish to make a trade that does not include several VERY high upside prospects for a talent like Jake Peavy.

That fact would have made the proposed trade with the Chicago White Sox an utter failure for the Padres. They would have lost a top 10 pitcher and gained only one prospect, Aaron Poreda, with an upside of being an impact player. The rest, Clayton Richard, Lance Broadway and Brian Omogrosso, are all projected as #4-#5 type starters.

Even the fire ball throwing Poreda is widely seen as a one pitch wonder who is best suited for the closers role.

The package the Chicago Cubs offered in the off season was better because it contained at least two very high upside players and several other players with some major league experience. Several of those players are gone now, but the Cubs still have the high upside type of prospects it should take to consummate the trade.

So the bottom line is:

IF the Padres can get a couple of high upside, impact type prospects in the trade plus a couple of major league ready prospects for Jake Peavy, THEN the trade should and probably will get done this season.

I have had my say. Now what do you think?