Wednesday, December 09, 2009

A look forward at a possible 2010 Padres Roster

December 9, 2009

A Look Forward at the San Diego Padres 2010 Roster and Payroll

I thought I would get a head start on what the 2010 Padres roster would look like.

What follows is the players currently on the roster and their projected salaries. Arbitration eligible players salaries are in ranges and include what I would offer or do in paranthesis.

There are many question marks and much that may change in the next few days at the Winter Meetings.

Position Players

1B - Adrian Gonzalez     - $4.75 million
2B - David Eckstein     - $1.0 million
SS - Everth Cabrera     - 0.4000 million
3B - Kevin Kouzmanoff     - $3.0 - $4.0 million (Trade)
LF - Chase Headley    - 0.4115 million
CF - Tony Gwynn/    - 0.4050
RF - Kyle Blanks    - 0.4000
C  - Nick Hundley    - 0.4044

Will Venable        - .4023
Oscar Salazar        - .4000

Starting Pitching

Chris Young        - $6.250 million
Mat Latos        - 0.400
Kevin Correia        - $2.5 - $3.5 million (Sign to a 2 year $6 million deal with a team option)
Clayton Richard        - 0.405
Aaron Poreda/Sean Gallagher/Wade LeBlanc/Tim Stauffer/Cesar Carillo/Cesar Ramos

Heath Bell        - $3.5 - $4.5 million (Trade or sign to 2 year $7 million deal)
Edward Mujica        - 0.404
Luke Gregerson        - 0.400
Joe Thatcher        - 0.404          
Adam Russell, Greg Burke, Luis Perdomo, Ryan Webb, Mike Ekstrom and possibly Mark Worrell.

Payroll without trades or signing outside organization - $26.3362 - $29.362 million

$ the Padres have to spend with a $43 million payroll = $13.5 - $16.5 million

Middle infielder/Utility - especially one that can play SS
Starting Pitcher

What Do I think Will/Should happen for 2010

If the Padres trade Gonzalez they will be signaling they are giving up on the 2010 and quite possibly the 2011 season completely and will not bring in a fairly expensive FA like Cameron who will command $7 million plus. Gonzalez makes a very reasonable $4.75 million in 2010.

The Padres will not bring back enough in trade to offset the loss of fan support/goodwill and local revenue and production from Gonzalez to make a trade worthwhile for at least two seasons. For those reasons alone he will probably not be traded..

If the Padres retain both Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff, Correia and Bell all get the $2.5 - $3.5 million they are expected to get in arbitration the Padres are still $13.5 million under their $43 million payroll level at the beginning of the 2009 season.

Moorad and Hoyer have said  the Padres payroll will begin with a 4. In other words $40-49 million

I would think a trade of Bell and Kouzmanoff is much more likely than a trade of Gonzalez.

The Padres would save $7 - $9 million in 2010 and probably double that in 2011 by trading Bell and Kouzmanoff.

Trading both would also bring in 3+ good prospects.

So lets recap.

The Padres trade Gonzalez they save $4.75 million in 2010 and $5.5 million in 2011 and get 4-5 prospects.

If the Padres trade Kouzmanoff and Bell they will save $7-9 million in 2010 and $14-18 million in 2011.

If Hoyer is any good he will not have to trade Gonzalez to build the Padres into a contender in 2010 or 2011.

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