Saturday March 14, 2008
An article from Corey Brock on MLB.com and linked on MLBTradeRumors.com says that that the Padres signed oft injured and former top prospect Chris Snelling.
Snelling, 27, was signed out of high school by the Seattle Mariners and made his major league debut at the age of 20. Injuries have derailed his once much heralded career.
Brock says Snelling "broke his hand in 2000, his ankle in 2001 and tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee in 2002 and did it again in 2005. Snelling also broke his wrist and his thumb and has even lost two teeth. All told, he's had seven surgeries on his injured left knee."
After being traded by the Mariners to the Nationals for Ryan Langerhans in May 2007, Snelling bounced around to the A's, Rays and Phillies in the off season and had only 4 ML ab with the Phillies in 2008.
Now the question of the day.
With the Padres already having a glut of good players and prospects in the OF including Chase Headley, Jody Gerut and Brian Giles, who are locked in at their positions and Scott Hairston and Cliff Floyd locked in as the #4 and #5 OF at San Diego and Will Venable, Chad Huffman, Drew Macias, and Emil Brown already slated for AAA Portland, where does Snelling fit in this picture?
This is clearly conjecture as I have not talked to a member of the Padres organization about it, but this may be an indication that the Padres are in the process of working out a trade of Kouzmanoff or Hairston for pitching help before the season starts.
The Tampa Bay Rays are known to be shopping Jeff Niemann, 2004 1st round draft pick (#4 overall), who is the odd man out on a very talented pitching staff in Tampa.
With the additions of Heilman, Gregg and Samardzija to a deep staff, the Cubs do not have room to keep both Angel Guzman and Chad Gaudin, both of whom are out of options and can start or come out of the pen.
Neither of those teams stand in need of a ML 3B or outfielder, so while they have the arms the Padres need, the Padres don't have any ML players they stand in need of.
The Twins have a number of good young arms and Phillip Humber is out of options but the Twins recently signed Joe Crede so they don't have a need for either a 3B or an outfielder.
So if the Padres are trading away either Hairston or Kouzmanoff, where are they going?
The Detroit Tigers have Edwin Jackson (SP) and Bobby Seay (RP) that are out of options and they need a 3B with Inge penciled in as the starter there.
After trading to prospect Matt Joyce for Jackson, the Tigers would need to get a ML player in return to keep there from being a public outcry. Kouzmanoff is a good young power hitting 3B and would be a great fit for them.
Again, I think that the Padres have built up depth in the OF with signings like Brown and Snelling with the intention of trading Kouzmanoff and moving Headley to 3B.
I have had my say. Now what do you think.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Saturday, March 07, 2009
Padres Batting Projections for 2009
Saturday March 7, 2009
Padres Batting Projections for 2009.
I have broken down my projections into two different types:
Bench spot projections are based on their 2008 abs with the exception of Burke.
If I don't get to lazy, I will be adding another post for the rest of the NL West Teams one by one in the coming weeks.
I don't know how well these tables will format here and some of my formulas seem to be rounding OPS down but here goes:
Projected 2009 Stats based on
2008 stats and 600 abs per position
(1200 abs total from Bench)
Team Padres
Position Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
LF Headley 0.270 0.340 0.420 0.760 16 60
CF Gerut 0.300 0.350 0.494 0.845 21 80
RF Giles 0.300 0.400 0.456 0.856 12 60
4th OF - 300 abs Hairston 0.250 0.300 0.479 0.779 17 32
OF Subtotal 0.280 0.348 0.462 0.812 66 232
1B Gonzales 0.280 0.380 0.510 0.890 35 120
2B Eckstein 0.265 0.343 0.349 0.692 4 52
SS Rodriguez 0.287 0.326 0.351 0.677 0 36
3B Kouzmanoff 0.275 0.300 0.433 0.732 23 80
C Hundley/Other 0.240 0.300 0.359 0.659 10 50
IF Subtotal 0.269 0.330 0.400 0.730 72 338
Bench Abs Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
246 Floyd 0.268 0.349 0.455 0.804 11 38
120 Blanco 0.292 0.325 0.392 0.717 3 12
325 E Gonzalez 0.274 0.329 0.385 0.713 7 33
165 Burke* 0.260 0.320 0.273 0.593 2 12
856 Bench Subtotal 0.274 0.331 0.376 0.707 23 95
Fielders Subtotal 0.274 0.336 0.413 0.749 161 665
Pitchers (Current Pitchers) 0.165 0.200 0.182 0.382 2 12
Total 0.247 0.302 0.355 0.657 163 677
2009 Projections Based on
600 abs or 2008 abs (whichever is larger)
with adjustments for historical changes at
age and years of ML service
Team Padres
Position Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
LF Headley 0.278 0.350 0.433 0.783 18.540 78.280
CF Gerut 0.306 0.357 0.504 0.861 26.132 80.264
RF Giles 0.292 0.389 0.444 0.832 11.676 61.299
4th OF - 300 abs Hairston 0.255 0.306 0.489 0.795 17.340 31.620
OF Subtotal 0.283 0.351 0.467 0.818 74 251
1B Gonzales 0.300 0.408 0.547 0.935 38.628 127.687
2B Eckstein 0.262 0.340 0.346 0.685 3.669 49.530
SS Rodriguez 0.293 0.333 0.358 0.691 0.000 36.900
3B Kouzmanoff 0.295 0.322 0.465 0.785 24.679 90.132
C Hundley/Other 0.247 0.309 0.370 0.655 15.450 74.160
IF Subtotal 0.280 0.342 0.417 0.750 82 378
Bench Abs Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
246 Floyd 0.265 0.346 0.451 0.796 10.896 37.640
120 Blanco 0.284 0.316 0.381 0.698 2.919 11.676
325 E Gonzalez 0.279 0.336 0.393 0.727 7.140 33.660
165 Burke* 0.265 0.326 0.278 0.595 2.040 12.240
856 Bench 0.274 0.331 0.376 0.706 23 95
Fielders Subtotal 0.279 0.341 0.420 0.761 179 725
Pitchers .170 .206 .187 .393 2.06 12.36
Total 0.251 0.307 0.362 0.669 181 737
OPS Figures are rounded down to nearest thousandth.
If there is anyone out there who can help me post actual tables from a spread sheet here, please contact me.
Thanks, Web
Padres Batting Projections for 2009.
I have broken down my projections into two different types:
- Projections based on 2008 stats adjusted to 600 AB equivalents in 2009.
- Projections based on 600 AB and Adjustments for Historical Improvement and Declines for Players Age and Length of ML Service.
Bench spot projections are based on their 2008 abs with the exception of Burke.
If I don't get to lazy, I will be adding another post for the rest of the NL West Teams one by one in the coming weeks.
I don't know how well these tables will format here and some of my formulas seem to be rounding OPS down but here goes:
Projected 2009 Stats based on
2008 stats and 600 abs per position
(1200 abs total from Bench)
Team Padres
Position Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
LF Headley 0.270 0.340 0.420 0.760 16 60
CF Gerut 0.300 0.350 0.494 0.845 21 80
RF Giles 0.300 0.400 0.456 0.856 12 60
4th OF - 300 abs Hairston 0.250 0.300 0.479 0.779 17 32
OF Subtotal 0.280 0.348 0.462 0.812 66 232
1B Gonzales 0.280 0.380 0.510 0.890 35 120
2B Eckstein 0.265 0.343 0.349 0.692 4 52
SS Rodriguez 0.287 0.326 0.351 0.677 0 36
3B Kouzmanoff 0.275 0.300 0.433 0.732 23 80
C Hundley/Other 0.240 0.300 0.359 0.659 10 50
IF Subtotal 0.269 0.330 0.400 0.730 72 338
Bench Abs Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
246 Floyd 0.268 0.349 0.455 0.804 11 38
120 Blanco 0.292 0.325 0.392 0.717 3 12
325 E Gonzalez 0.274 0.329 0.385 0.713 7 33
165 Burke* 0.260 0.320 0.273 0.593 2 12
856 Bench Subtotal 0.274 0.331 0.376 0.707 23 95
Fielders Subtotal 0.274 0.336 0.413 0.749 161 665
Pitchers (Current Pitchers) 0.165 0.200 0.182 0.382 2 12
Total 0.247 0.302 0.355 0.657 163 677
2009 Projections Based on
600 abs or 2008 abs (whichever is larger)
with adjustments for historical changes at
age and years of ML service
Team Padres
Position Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
LF Headley 0.278 0.350 0.433 0.783 18.540 78.280
CF Gerut 0.306 0.357 0.504 0.861 26.132 80.264
RF Giles 0.292 0.389 0.444 0.832 11.676 61.299
4th OF - 300 abs Hairston 0.255 0.306 0.489 0.795 17.340 31.620
OF Subtotal 0.283 0.351 0.467 0.818 74 251
1B Gonzales 0.300 0.408 0.547 0.935 38.628 127.687
2B Eckstein 0.262 0.340 0.346 0.685 3.669 49.530
SS Rodriguez 0.293 0.333 0.358 0.691 0.000 36.900
3B Kouzmanoff 0.295 0.322 0.465 0.785 24.679 90.132
C Hundley/Other 0.247 0.309 0.370 0.655 15.450 74.160
IF Subtotal 0.280 0.342 0.417 0.750 82 378
Bench Abs Starter BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
246 Floyd 0.265 0.346 0.451 0.796 10.896 37.640
120 Blanco 0.284 0.316 0.381 0.698 2.919 11.676
325 E Gonzalez 0.279 0.336 0.393 0.727 7.140 33.660
165 Burke* 0.265 0.326 0.278 0.595 2.040 12.240
856 Bench 0.274 0.331 0.376 0.706 23 95
Fielders Subtotal 0.279 0.341 0.420 0.761 179 725
Pitchers .170 .206 .187 .393 2.06 12.36
Total 0.251 0.307 0.362 0.669 181 737
OPS Figures are rounded down to nearest thousandth.
If there is anyone out there who can help me post actual tables from a spread sheet here, please contact me.
Thanks, Web
Monday, March 02, 2009
Wackiest Trade Rumor of the Year
March 1, 2009
There have been some wacky trade rumors out there from members of the media, ( I would call them journalists, but most aren't) as anyone who reads mlbtraderumors.com can attest.
This one has to take the cake though.
Its from one of those wacky Angels fans who needed a monkey to get them rallied up.
(Sorry goes out to Sean Smith of Halos Heaven, an Angel Fan who is incredibly knowledgeable about the game of baseball and has a great site.
Unfortunately this one is a MLB Blog so most people are going to take is the official media word about the Angels.
The blog is called Rally Monkeys and the post was entitled Daydream Believers.
I am thinking Mr Spencer was smoking something when he wrote it.
Here is my breakdown of this ludicrous trade proposition.
He is proposing that the Padres trade both Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez to the Angels for Nick Adenhart, Dustin Moseley, Shane Loux, Kevin Jepsen, Erick Aybar, Freddy Sandoval, Matt Brown, Kendry Morales, Reggie Willits and Terry Evans.
His reasoning is that it gives the Padres a whole new team.
Here is my take on his proposed trade:
Nick Adenhart has 3 ML starts and he did worse than LeBlanc in that short stint. He doesn't have an overpowering fastball, his is in the low 90's (91-92 mph) and he has not been a strike out pitcher in the minors.
Dustin Moseley is 27 and has never lived up to his expectations. His 5.52 ERA in 61 ML appearances (20 starts) over 3 seasons doesn't speak well of his talent and his high 80's fastball is not exactly exciting.
Shane Loux is not exactly a good prospect at 29 years old. A reliever, Loux had 5 years between major league appearances (2003-2008).
Kevin Jepsen I like. He is only 24 and he is a hard throwing righty out of the pen.
Erick Aybar (24) is the epitome of the all field, no hit SS. I think the Padres can do as well in house within a couple of years.
Freddy Sandoval is a 3B/DH by trade. Don't think the Padres need another one of those, do you? In fact I think the Padres have better in their farm system in Darnell and Dykstra.
Matt Brown. Another 3B. Why?
Kendry Morales is a good young player at 25, but he is a long way from replacing Gonzalez both with the bat and the glove.
Reggie Willits. Speed and that's it. 5 career home runs in 6 professional seasons. Yes, you read that right, 5 career home runs. None in 583 abs at the ML level. Can you say Juan Pierre?
Terry Evans is an average minor league hitter - 0.285 0.344 0.472 0.816 who plays below average defense. I don't think so.
I really see only three players who could even make the current squad - Aybar because he is much better defensively than anyone the Padres have THIS season, Jepsen, and Morales. Adenhart would have a hard time beating out LeBlanc, Geer, Inman, Correia and Prior.
No Way do I make that trade.
I have had my say. Now what do you think?
There have been some wacky trade rumors out there from members of the media, ( I would call them journalists, but most aren't) as anyone who reads mlbtraderumors.com can attest.
This one has to take the cake though.
Its from one of those wacky Angels fans who needed a monkey to get them rallied up.
(Sorry goes out to Sean Smith of Halos Heaven, an Angel Fan who is incredibly knowledgeable about the game of baseball and has a great site.
Unfortunately this one is a MLB Blog so most people are going to take is the official media word about the Angels.
The blog is called Rally Monkeys and the post was entitled Daydream Believers.
I am thinking Mr Spencer was smoking something when he wrote it.
Here is my breakdown of this ludicrous trade proposition.
He is proposing that the Padres trade both Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez to the Angels for Nick Adenhart, Dustin Moseley, Shane Loux, Kevin Jepsen, Erick Aybar, Freddy Sandoval, Matt Brown, Kendry Morales, Reggie Willits and Terry Evans.
His reasoning is that it gives the Padres a whole new team.
Here is my take on his proposed trade:
Nick Adenhart has 3 ML starts and he did worse than LeBlanc in that short stint. He doesn't have an overpowering fastball, his is in the low 90's (91-92 mph) and he has not been a strike out pitcher in the minors.
Dustin Moseley is 27 and has never lived up to his expectations. His 5.52 ERA in 61 ML appearances (20 starts) over 3 seasons doesn't speak well of his talent and his high 80's fastball is not exactly exciting.
Shane Loux is not exactly a good prospect at 29 years old. A reliever, Loux had 5 years between major league appearances (2003-2008).
Kevin Jepsen I like. He is only 24 and he is a hard throwing righty out of the pen.
Erick Aybar (24) is the epitome of the all field, no hit SS. I think the Padres can do as well in house within a couple of years.
Freddy Sandoval is a 3B/DH by trade. Don't think the Padres need another one of those, do you? In fact I think the Padres have better in their farm system in Darnell and Dykstra.
Matt Brown. Another 3B. Why?
Kendry Morales is a good young player at 25, but he is a long way from replacing Gonzalez both with the bat and the glove.
Reggie Willits. Speed and that's it. 5 career home runs in 6 professional seasons. Yes, you read that right, 5 career home runs. None in 583 abs at the ML level. Can you say Juan Pierre?
Terry Evans is an average minor league hitter - 0.285 0.344 0.472 0.816 who plays below average defense. I don't think so.
I really see only three players who could even make the current squad - Aybar because he is much better defensively than anyone the Padres have THIS season, Jepsen, and Morales. Adenhart would have a hard time beating out LeBlanc, Geer, Inman, Correia and Prior.
No Way do I make that trade.
I have had my say. Now what do you think?
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