Padres GM Byrnes makes STUPID trade for Quentin

San Diego Padres GM Josh Byrnes is out of his f'ing mind.

He has just made what may be the single worst trade in the history of the Padres franchise sending Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez to the Chicago White Sox for OF/DH Carlos Quentin.
Yes, that is a bold statement, but lets take a look at the facts of this trade.

What did the Padres give up?

Byrnes traded away two good young pitchers in Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez that will likely make the White Sox staff in 2012. If Castro is not in rotation in 2012, he will be in 2013 at the latest. 

Castro was rated #2 or #3 in the Padres organization in both 2010 & 2011 (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and John Sickels) and is widely thought of as a prospect with #2-#3 type starter potential at the major league level. Castro may not be top prospect in the PADRES incredibly deep system for 2012, but would rank in top 5 for White Sox today and will likely make the Sox staff by end of 2012. Castro could be a #2 - #3 starter on the Sox staff in 2013.

Hernandez is a  22 year old left handed control artist who had a decent chance of making the Padres pen at some point in 2012 and will likely break camp in the pen for the reliever deficient Sox. 

How about Carlos Quentin?  

Well Quentin is:

1. Extremely Injury Prone
   (Quentin has NEVER played over 131 games & averaged 120 games over past 4 seasons)
2. A Low Average Hitter
   (He hit .257 for the White Sox playing in one of best hitters parks in baseball. That translates to hitting .223 if he was a Padre over past 4 seasons.) 
3. An All or Nothing Hitter
   (17.4% strike outs vs just 7% walks but a .245 ISO)
4. A Free Agent at the end of the 2012 Season 
5. Relatively Expensive
   (Quentin will likely be paid $7-8 million in 2012. His 3rd & last year of arbitration)
6. An Absolute Butcher on Defense
   (Quentin has been THE ABSOLUTE WORST DEFENSIVE OUTFIELDER in baseball with more than 2500 innings played over past 3 seasons.)

So Padres got a one year rental of a mediocre player for two good prospects who will likely contribute for White Sox at Major League level in 2012. Byrnes is obviously trying to make up for his mistake of sending a CHEAP Quentin away from Arizona years ago. In the process he makes a HUGE mistake trading FOR him now.

The Padres will not contend in 2012 and adding Quentin wont change that. Quentin will go away after 2012 since the Padres cant afford to keep an expensive DH. The $7-8 million Byrnes will have to spend on Quentin is ALOT of money for the low payroll Padres and it is being spent on as bad of a fit for that ballpark as you can possibly find. 

WTF is Byrnes thinking.

I have had my say, now I would like to hear what YOU have to say about this trade.

- Web 

Edit: Changed Byrnes to Quentin in appropriate places.

What the Changes in the MLB CBA Really Mean

The Rich Get Richer

Bud Selig and the big market owners at MLB have put a hatchet in the back of the Small and Mid market teams with this new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

The small market teams have been all but marginalized. They will no longer have any opportunity to compete under the new rules.

Changes in Arbitration Eligibility Rules

Players with less than three years of major league service will now have to have 2 years 86 days of service and be in the top 20% of the league in production. (Previously it was 17%)

All but the largest market teams will now hold their best prospects back to after the All Star break instead of early June to ensure they don’t get 86 days in that year.

Changes in Free Agency Compensation

Since they no longer lose a draft pick the rich will get richer. The Yankees, Red Sox, etc… can now sign Free Agents without losing anything unless the other team makes a $12 million offer to the FA.

It’s a crock. The old system didn’t work, but this is worse. Now small market teams are strictly farm clubs for the big market teams.

It marks the end of Tampa Bay’s ability to compete in the AL East. Once their current crop of players and prospects reach FA they will never compete again. IT ends ANY small markets teams possibility of contending. Under the old system at least you got something when you could no longer afford a free agent. Now you get nothing. Selig said bend over small market teams and take it like a Sandusky victim.

Changes in First Year Draft

More of the rich get ting richer.

Now teams that were horrible last year can no longer afford to pay big money for a great prospect (see Gerrit Cole) or they risk not being able to draft many players or have to pay a tax they can ill afford to pay for going over the line. 

The Yankees, Red Sox, etc... can afford to pay a luxury tax, but if a team like the Pirates or the Rays want to pay big money for a couple of exceptional prospects, they risk not being to sign other prospects prospects down the line.

Selig has finally turned all small market teams into nothing more than glorified farm teams for the Yankees and the Red Sox.

Congratulations Bud. You have finally killed competition in the sport completely.

RIP MLB.  

Out in Left Field

Padres make offer to Rafael Furcal

Wednesday November 16, 2011

According to sources at the MLB General Managers meetings in Milwaukee, the San Diego Padres made a two offer to 34 year old former Dodgers and Cardinals shortstop Rafael Furcal. While the exact terms are not known, the offer was reportedly for 2 years/$15 million with an option year.

Furcal's agent, Paul Kinzer has been pretty firm about wanting 3 years, but will likely take two years with an option. Especially if it is an option with a vesting clause.

The Padres are one of 6 teams that have shown serious interest in Furcal.

Interesting move to say the least for a low budget team not expected to contend in 2012.

Closers that Blow Saves Suck

The Definition of a Great Closer:

To be considered the best closer in the game of baseball
you need to do one simple thing, 

Save the highest percentage of games.

It doesn't matter what the velocity is on your fastball.
It doesn't matter how many guys you strike out per nine innings.
It doesnt matter what your ERA or SIERA was.
It doesn't matter what your WHIP or FIP or WAR  was.

The ONLY thing that matters 
is that when you team has a lead in the 8th or 9th inning
that you keep the other team from scoring MORE runs than your lead
with the highest regularity.

THAT is the job of a closer.

With that in mind:
If you think Craig Kimbrel was Closer of the Year in the NL , you are a flipping idiot.

That piece of shit blew 8 games out of 54 attempts and 3 of his final 6 opportunities. Kimbrel is the singular reason his team, the Atlanta Braves, were not in the playoffs. 85% saves is simply not worth being in the conversation for NL Closer of the Year.

Marmol and Cordero are not even worth mentioning they were so bad at their job.

If you think  ANYONE besides
Axford - 96%,
Putz - 92%,
Bell  - 90%, or
Storen - 90%
is even in the conversation for best closer you are a moron. Plain and simple.

Those guys had the highest % of saves in the NL.

THAT singular thing is what makes them the best of 2011.

So bring it bitches. I want to hear what all you Kimbrel kiss asses have to say.

Out In Left Field

Another year, another change.

Guest Post from The Hammer

Another year, another change.   

The Padres rolled out their new uniforms yesterday and the first thought that came to mind was… why?  Again?  Why?  Fans always complain that they don’t want to buy players jerseys because they don’t stay long, well why would anyone want to buy Padres jerseys if they are just going to become outdated sooner rather than later. 

I understand the bring back the brown crowd and it appears that the Padres tried to give them something to chew on by bringing back the swinging friar, but he’s blue.   

At first glance it appears to be much more like a Dodgers logo than a Padres logo.   

The new baseball logo has a vintage feel to it, but it also has a Dodgers feel, as you can see here.

Personally, I care much more about the product on the field, but when it looks like we have become the Dodgers south, I take personal offense.  Ownership wonders why the fan base is fickle, but this new ownership doesn’t understand that the changes they make continue to frustrate the fan base.  This team lacks identity. 

I know the Padres aren’t the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Cubs, or any other storied franchise, but forcing things down the fans throats they don’t want (insert Enberg jab here) is not going to help.  I know that some people out there will always just put a smile on and write something positive, but screw that.  The Padres marketing department has been a mess since this new regime took over, from awkward promo days, to being overly controlling with players, finally to a branding program that has changed direction at every turn. 

This organization needs to stop pouring energy and resources into petty things like uniform changes and buying minor league teams and start putting a quality product on the field.  In San Francisco it’s Halloween all year around, it’s ugly, but the team and the fans own it.  It is their identity and the Giants show the fans they care about winning. 

When Moorad comes out and tells fans that he is going to run this like a business, I respect that, but as a fan, I hate it.  Changing uniforms looks like a money grab, taking the revenue sharing money and not applying it to payroll looks like a money grab, and trying to have the TV deal front loaded looks like a money grab.  Money money money money

I can’t blame Jed for leaving; this was always a stepping stone job for him, similar to how Moorad used Arizona as a stepping stone and will eventually do the same our beloved Padres.  It’s a shame that as fans we have to deal with someone more concerned with turning a profit than winning games. 

Personally, I’m not a fan of the changes because as much as marketing would like to tell me they are part of Padres history, the brown was the part that fans wanted back.  If this ownership wants to look like the Dodgers south, that is their right as an ownership group.  I’ll try not to take it personal, after all, it’s just business.  

The Hammer

Guest Writers @ Websoulsurfer

Over the next month you will begin to see articles from several guest writers at Websoulsurfer.

Some talking about San Diego Padres baseball, some about MLB and some about other subjects near and dear to baseball fans.

Like me, these guys are looking for a place to express themselves without endangering their jobs.

They will be posting under pseudonyms  - "The Hammer", Scouting America, Out in Left Field, and Your SABR Daddy may be a few of the names you see.

Enjoy.

Goose Gossage Award - Baseball Bloggers Alliance

Thursday October 13, 2011

First I want to apologize for not posting much this season.

My new employment has kept me on the road much of the year wand watching minor league baseball instead of the 100+ major league games I have attended in years past.

Recently my employers have asked all of us to not blog until we had a new boss in place. While that is not completed yet, I did not want to let down the BBA by neglecting to vote for the Goose Gossage Award for the best reliever in the NL.

Without further ado my vote for the Best reliever in the NL goes to John Axford of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Not only did Axford lead the NL in saves and save percentage, he was also amongst the lowest in ERA, FIP and xFIP. His LOB% was the best amongst closers and his k/9 was near the top as well.

An honorable mention goes to Heath Bell of the San Diego Padres who has been arguably the best closer in baseball over the past three years leading in nearly every category.

In 2011 he performed exceptionally well recording 43 saves against just 5 blown saves while pitching for a team that gave him sporadic opportunities at best, often going 5 or more days between outings, and for a team was out of contention by the end of May. Those are tough conditions to battle for a closer.

J.J Putz made a complete u-turn in his career to record 45 saves for the Arizona Diamondbacks and desreves at least a mention here. Too many of his saves were 1 or 2 batters with a 3 run lead to merit real consideration as top reliever in the league. not enough high leverage situations.

According to the BBA rules I am supposed to grade these guys on a point system so here goes:
5 points - John Axford Milwaukee Brewers
3 points - Heath Bell - San Diego Padres
1 point  - JJ Putz - Arizona Diamondbacks

If I was GM, what would I do to fix the Cubs?

Sunday August 28, 2011

If I was GM, what would I do to fix the Cubs?

Right now, even though they have millions coming off the books for 2012, the Cubs are saddled with $86.6 million in contracts for 2012 for just 8 players (including Ramirez whose option will be picked up). $52 million of that money is for 3 decidedly mediocre players – Zambrano, Dempster and Soriano.  5 teams with better records than the Cubs spent less than that amount on their entire team in 2011.

With no changes the team will have a payroll of over $100 million after signing their arbitration eligible players or replacing them with league minimum salaries.

The team has no realistic shot at competing in 2012 without overspending in a sparse free agent landscape. Yes they could make a splash and spend $25+ million to sign Pujols or Fielder to a long term contract, but that would only be a PR move as one player cannot turn around either the win/loss or the culture of this organization.

So what would I do if I was the GM of the Cubs?

#1 – Create a long term plan for the organization

For years the Cubs have been flying by the seat of their pants with no real plan for the future. They have been relying on deep pockets and big revenue to pay exorbitant salaries to too many mediocre free agents.  Its time to build from within for long term success.

#2 - Jettison Soriano & Zambrano - Some playoff bound team would like Soriano’s power bat off the bench and would give a 2^nd tier prospect for him. The Cubs would have to eat more than half his salary of $57 million over the next 3 years to get anything back, but this is a case of addition by subtraction and would be worth it. ($18 million per year plus $1 million per season of signing bonus)

Zambrano will be extremely difficult to deal and not only because of the $19 million he is owed in 2012. He is a cancer in the clubhouse and most teams are not willing to take on that kind of problem regardless of salary. I still believe the Cubs can dump him while paying a big chunk of his salary to take on an underperforming player from another team. Get it done NOW.

#3 – Hire more scouts. The Cubs have one of the smallest scouting departments in baseball. You cannot build a quality system that will consistently produce major league talent if you are not able to take a good look at the talent available.

#4 – Commit to getting younger

This is a very OLD team, one of the oldest in baseball. If not for the two kids in the middle infield, every starter in the field would be 32 or over. Here are a few suggestions.

A – Trade Carlos Pena, Marlon Byrd, Reed Johnson, John Grabow, Rodrigo Lopez and any other older moving parts that are not part of your plan for the immediate future. 

B – Matt Garza is the youngest healthy starting pitcher (25 year old Andrew Cashner has been on the DL with rotator cuff issues since his 1^st start of the season) and there is little in terms of quality arms in the farm system that are even near ready to join the rotation. Sign Garza to a 3 year deal that buys out his 1^st year of Free agency. 

Face the fact that Wells and Coleman are simply not good enough to run out there every 5^th day.  Wells is regressing under the tutelage of Riggins. Coleman is a AAA pitcher with no upside.

Carpenter, McNutt, Dollis and Whiteknack are coming, but don’t expect much help from any of them until late next year. Trade away some veterans like Dempster, Lopez, Grabow and Zambrano (even if you eat most of his contract) to re-stock the farm.

C – Play Colvin, Campana (& LaHair once you trade Pena) daily for the rest of the season. Bring up Brett Jackson to start the 2012 season and bring in some mid level talent as place holders until Josh Vitters and the few other good position player prospects you have are ready. Use the money saved in scouting, International Free Agency and next season’s draft.

#5– Get a real closer. Marmol is not a closer and all his blown saves are disheartening for the team. Put him back in a setup role and find someone with heart. With Balls.

#7 – Quade, Riggins and Strode go at the end of the season. The culture within the Cubs team and organization as a whole is rotted to the core. Zambrano is a symptom of a more endemic sickness.

What is happening with the pitching on this team is a travesty. Riggins & the rest of the staff have ruined the confidence and mechanics of the younger pitchers. In fact Jaramillo may be the only member of the coaching staff I would keep.

#7 – Non Tender Hill and Baker – they are older, non performing but likely to get huge raises in their 3^rd year of arbitration. You can sign others at league minimum that can recreate their performance.

FA Salaries that are truly being shed

·        Pena – $10,000,000

·        Grabow - $4,800,000

·        Wood - $1,500,000

·        Johnson - $900,000

Arbitration Eligible Cubbies – Projected increase in salaries to sign = $8+ million

·        Garza – made $5,950,000 and due a big raise in 3^rd year of eligibility – likely to $10 million

·        Soto – made $3,000,000 and due a large raise in 3^rd year of eligibility – likely to $5 million

·        Baker – made $1,175,000 and due a large raise in 3^rd year of eligibility – likely to $2+ million

·        Hill – made $850,000 and due a large raise in 3^rd year of eligibility

·        Dewitt – 1^st year of eligibility

·        Wells - 1^st year of eligibility

How the Padres Blew Trade of Type A Free Agent Heath Bell

Saturday August 6, 2011

How the Padres Blew Trade of Type A Free Agent Heath Bell

I keep hearing that the reasoning the Padres are giving for not trading Heath Bell is that they felt that they were not being offered two draft picks worth of prospects in return.

In my opinion, the Padres front office outsmarted themselves on not trading Bell for whatever they could get before the July 31^st trading deadline.

Three things the Padres brain trust should have kept in mind:

•  Draft picks in the 1^st and the supplemental round cost big money and are far from sure things. Less than 17% make it as regulars in the major leagues.
• A team has already spent money on the prospects you were asking for in the draft and seen their progression. You would have had to ask for prospects FAR away from being ML ready.
• Bell would have to refuse to accept arbitration for a place he LOVES to live and play And a place he had repeatedly said for more than a year that he would take a DISCOUNT to continue to play, in order for the Padres to get compensation for him signing elsewhere as a free agent .

What Could Have Been

If the Padres had been better at communicating with their star closer, Heath Bell would have likely returned to the Padres for 2012 as a Free Agent AT A DISCOUNT and, with the Padres holding a top ten place in the 2012 amateur draft, their draft pick in the first round would be protected.  

What I am saying is the Padres could have had their cake and ate it too. Get the prospects for Bell NOW and resign him in 2012 at a discount and only have to give up a 2^nd round draft pick.

They were reportedly being offered a package by the Rangers that included the low ceiling, but high probability LHP Robbie Erlin and a lower level prospect at Myrtle Beach, either OF Travis Adair or SS Leury Garcia.

Scouts for the Rangers I spoke with in my travels said in the week prior to the deadline that “Robbie is going” in relation to a potential Bell trade.

What Happened

Instead the Padres got nothing for Bell and subsequent to the deadline saw Bell make a public pronouncement that he WOULD accept arbitration to continue playing in San Diego if the Padres offered, effectively minimizing his value in trade if the Padres attempted to trade him now.

For Bell this actually INCREASED his value in free agency if he chooses to sign elsewhere as:

1. Other teams know that the Padres would be foolish to offer him arbitration when faced with a probable salary for Bell of  $12-$13 million (of a projected total payroll of $50-$55 million)
2. Other teams do not have to give up a draft pick to sign Bell if the Padres don’t offer arbitration.

Where this Leaves the Padres

The Padres front office, and Jed Hoyer in particular, have put themselves in a difficult position in regards to Bell when they went into trade season in the drivers seat. 

They will likely have to trade Bell before the end of August basically for whatever they are offered or let him walk after the season with no compensation. They have left themselves in a position where they no leverage.

The Padres would have then set themselves up to get a 2nd package of prospects for Mike Adams.

The Padres front office have completely blown the trade of Heath Bell.

Padres return for Adams or Bell?

Saturday July 16, 2011

Greetings from beautiful Port Charlotte Florida, home of the Stone Crabs.

I have spent the past two days watching the Treshers with several Padres scouts & the Phillies general manager also in attendance. Taking a look at the players the Padres would likely be getting in return for Heath Bell (or Mike Adams) and Ryan Ludwick if Hoyer & Amaro pull the trigger on a trade.

The scuttlebutt is that if the Padres are willing to pick up a major portion, maybe as much as $4 million, of Bell and Ludwick's $7 million in combined remaining salaries this season that the Padres will receive one of the following top prospects -Brody Colvin, Julio Rodriguez or Trevor May - and 2-3 other players.that would include one of Jonathan Singleton or Sebastian Valle and at least one other lower level prospect.

Sounds like a huge haul and it is, but the Padres would be sending one of, if not THE, best closers in baseball and a valuable RHB that would hit much better than his current .240 in Citizens Bank Park along with a huge chunk of cash. When you consider the value of a World Series run, it is an entirely reasonable trade.

Monday and Tuesday of next week I will be spending time in Myrtle Beach before flying to Texas for the weekend. Hope to get to see starting pitchers Robbie Ross or Miguel De Los Santos and OF Travis Adair play for the Pelicans. Another player I had wanted to see, Mike Olt, is on the DL. They are all potential pieces in a trade for Bell or Adams by the Rangers.

Once I get to Frisco I am hoping to see Robbie Erlin pitch. He is the piece I would most like to see coming back the Padres way in a trade for Bell from the Rangers system.

I am afraid that by the time I get to Frisco the Padres will have pulled the trigger on a trade, possibly two.

Even if the trades are made prior to my getting to Texas its going to be a busy, exciting week of minor league baseball.

Why is Venable starting?

Tuesday June 28, 2011

Why is Will Venable starting games? Are the Padres "showcasing" him so they can trade him? Entice teams with a tantalizing short burst of play over mediocrity from Venable?

Padres fans have ample evidence over the past 3 years that Venable cannot sustain any kind of over average performance and are resigned oto seeing only flashes of brilliance reminiscent of Ruben Rivera.

Chris Denorfia is doing everything right. He is hitting over .300 including an incredible .289 at Petco, hitting for power - .451 slg, and playing good defense.What else does he need to do to be an everyday starter? I guess what he has to do is have flashes of great play.

Oh wait, Deno has had CONSISTENT great play.

The only explanation is that the Padres just don't care about winning right now and only want to see if they can get something for Venable when they include him in one of the inevitable trades the team will make before July 31st.

So why should fans care?

Introducing your 2012 San Diego Padres!

Monday June 27, 2011

Introducing your 2012 San Diego Padres!

A week ago I wrote that trade winds were whipping up in San Diego. Well, GALE force winds are blowing in San Diego today.  The Padres have gone 10-14 for the month of June, including a 6 game losing streak from the 14^th to 20^th, and after starting out 24-31 their recent play has sealed the fate of many of the veteran player on the team. Most of the veteran players brought in during the 2^nd half of 2010 and in the offseason will be blown right out of town.

With the Padres 11 games under .500 and 10.5 games back in the NL West,  it’s a foregone conclusion that 2012 free agents Heath Bell and Ryan Ludwick will be gone before the trading deadline and probably much sooner. Possibly as soon as June 30^th? 

The fact is that players like Bell and Ludwick that are free agents after the season are worth more in trade the longer their new team gets to use their services after the trade. Hoyer is no dummy. They will both be gone before the All Star break.

Reliever Chad Qualls, Brad Hawpe, Orlando Hudson, Jason Bartlett, and Aaron Harang all have big dollar options or guaranteed salaries for 2012 ($6 million option, $6 million option, $5.5 million salary, $5.5 million salary, and $5 million option respectively) and the Padres have serviceable, if not good, internal options.  Those Padres players have a heavy tail wind blowing them out of town as well.

So what WILL the 2012 Padres look like?

I am not sure who will be coming back as part of the trades that will probably blow 5-6 veteran players out of San Diego over the next month, but I can make an educated guess as to who may be called up or be moved into the position from the Padres bench.

• Heath Bell with Mike Adams – Adams is arbitration eligible but has been groomed as Bell’s replacement and will make much less than the $7++ million Bell would command in free agency.
  
•  Ryan Ludwick with Chris Denorfia – Deno has been the only consistent performer in the outfield and deserves a full time spot, at least for the rest of the 2011 season. Venable takes over RF, Maybin in CF and Deno in LF with Kyle Blanks being called up.
  
• Chad Qualls with Luis Perdomo, Even Scribner or Brad Brach – Bullpen is an area the Padres are deep in and can replace Qualls with relative ease, either in the trade or from the farm.
  
• Brad Hawpe has already been replaced with Anthony Rizzo.  If he returns from the DL before July 31^st, a bag of balls or a rosin bag would be a positive replacement.
  
• Orlando Hudson with Logan Forsythe – Forsythe did not hit well in his first appearances with San Diego, but is still the only serviceable internal candidate at 2^nd base for the remainder of 2011.
  
• Jason Bartlett with Everth Cabrera – the 24 year old Cabrera has returned from his injury for AAA Tucson and played extremely well hitting .296/.359 with 13 sb in 31 games. He is the heir apparent at SS.
  
• Aaron Harang with Cory Luebke, Wade LeBlanc, Anthony Bass or Casey Kelly or any number of good young arms.

Predicting the 2012 roster is a little more of a crapshoot at this point, but you can count on it being young. Predicting the return the Padres may get on the veterans they ship out is also a crapshoot, but I will give it a shot.

Padres Return On Investment

• Bell is a highly valuable commodity and will likely get a top 20 type prospect from the Rangers, Phillies, Cardinals, or whoever else gets in the bidding. Possibly Roman Mendez or possibly even Neil Ramirez from the Rangers if the Padres eat a little salary.  Phillipe Aumont + a second lower level prospect  or possibly even  JC Ramirez from the Phillies. Rasmus’ name has been bandied about from the Cardinals.
  
• Ludwick is having a real good year away from the unfriendly confines of Petco with a 114 OPS+. He will bring back a decent prospect in return. Seattle has reportedly offered a middle infield prospect. Could it possibly be Carlos Triunfel? His stock has dropped tremendously, but he still has tremendous tools. The Phillies have also reportedly offered a good OF prospect. A power hitting prospect that is very raw and still in high A, but undoubtedly a good prospect.
  
• Qualls is in a rebound year that is at least in part attributable to the Petco effect. His ERA away is a pedestrian 3.93. He will not bring back a great prospect, but even a mid-level prospect while not having to pay the cost of buying out his option year is worth trading him.
  
• Hawpe will only be valuable to an AL team that has a short RF porch so don’t expect much. Maybe a low level prospect from the Orioles or Yankees.
  
• Hudson is on a down year punctuated with injuries and he has an $8 million option for 2013, so he may be the only player the Padres are unable to move. Which is ok by me. Unless they get a middle infielder that is major league ready for Bell or Ludwick, chances are the Padres best replacement for Hudson is Logan Forsythe. Not good enough right now. Plus Hudson  plays decent defense and provides veteran leadership and a motor mouth that is fun.
  
• Bartlett is having a decent, but not good year and may prove difficult to move as well. I think teams will be more willing to part with a decent prospect for the 31 yr old Bartlett than the 33 yr old Hudson.
  
• Harang is an interesting case. We all knew his era would go down coming to Petco, what was not expected was that he would be going an average of 6.2 innings per start and would have a 7-2 record after 13 starts. With only a $5 million option year, the Padres may just hang onto Harang for 2012. But then I said that about Garland after last season.

I can’t guess at this point about what players the Padres will sign in the offseason, so here goes nothing. 

Your 2012 San Diego Padres

Starting 8 1/2

1B – Anthony Rizzo – 22 (or Kyle Blanks) – Rizzo will be given every chance to hold onto the job for the rest of the 2011 season. If he can rebound to hit even .220-.230 he will likely be the opening day starter at 1B

2B – Orlando Hudson – 34 – I think he is close to untradeable and will return in 2012.

SS – Everth Cabrera – 25 – the 2^nd coming of the talented young SS.

3B – Chase Headley – 27 – hitting .300 while playing half your games in Petco is impressive even if you aren’t hitting many home runs.

LF – Kyle Blanks – 25 – Blanks is really a 1B, but if Rizzo wins the job the Padres will be forced to play the talented and powerful young man in LF again in 2012.

CF – Cameron Maybin – 26 – Great defense. Mediocre bat. Occasional power. Perfect fit for Padres.

RF – Will Venable - 29/Chris Denorfia – 31 -

C – Nick Hundley – 27 – With no other real options, Hundley will once again be the number one catcher on the Padres squad.

Bench

OF - Venable or Denorfia

MI – ?? I just know that Alberto Gonzalez will not be back. Possibly Jarrett Hoffpauir - 28

IF – Logan Forsythe – 22 or possibly Vince Belnome – 24 – who has been tearing it up with the bat in AA

UT – Guzman – 27 – Good bat, bad defense. Will back up 1B and OF and mostly be a bat off the bench.

C – Another veteran schmoe like Rob Johnson, but probably a different schmoe

Starting Rotation

Mat Latos

Clayton Richard

Tim Stauffer

Dustin Moseley

Wade LeBlanc/Cory Luebke/Casey Kelly/Anthony Bass

Bullpen

CL – Mike Adams – 31- Closer in waiting

SU – Luke Gregerson – 29 -

SU – Ernesto Frieri - 26

Loogy – Joe Thatcher - 30

MR – Luis Perdomo

MR – Evan Scribner/Josh Spence/Brad Brach

LR – Luebke/LeBlanc