2010 Padres Predictions - So how did I do?

Monday October 4th

Now that the Padres season is over I thought I would see how I did with my pre-season predictions of the Padres players performance.

if you want to take a look at the original post from March 31st . Many said I was crazy to be so optimistic about the team and especially about the performance of the pitchers. So you tell me, how do you think I did as a prognosticator?

Here were my pre-season predictions and in Red, how they actually did in 2010.

2010 Padres Projections


Pitching Staff
Starting Pitchers (This will add up to more than 162 starts)

Chris Young - Traded in July after
- 16 starts 97.1 IP 7-3 3.52 era 1.18 whip

4 starts 20.0 IP 2-0 0.90 ERA 1.050 WHIP Injured most of season

Jon Garland
- 33 starts 201.2 IP 14-11 3.83 ERA 1.28 Whip

33 starts 200.0 IP 14-12 3.47 ERA 1.315 WHIP

Kevin Correia
- 31 starts 189.1 IP 12-10 3.89 ERA 1.29 Whip

26 starts 145.0 IP 10-10 5.40 ERA 1.490 WHIP (removed from Starting rotation in August)

Clayton Richard
- 30 starts 169.2 IP 12-6 3.82 ERA 1.38 Whip

33 starts 201.2 IP 14-9 3.75 ERA 1.408 WHIP

Mat Latos
- 22 starts 141.2 IP 6-5 4.03 ERA 1.39 Whip

31 starts 184.2 IP 14-10 2.92 ERA 1.083 WHIP (Faded down stretch)

Tim Stauffer (Starts the season in Bullpen)
- 14 starts 82.1 IP 5-5 3.74 ERA 1.44 Whip

7 starts (32 appearances) 82.2 IP 6-5 1.85 ERA 1.077 WHIP

As a Starter – 3-2 39.1 IP 1.83 ERA 1.042 WHIP

Sean Gallagher (Starts the season in Bullpen)
- 12 starts 67.2 IP 3-4 4.26 ERA 1.37 Whip

Gone at end of June. No Starts as Padre 15 appearances 5.40 ERA

Wade LeBlanc (Starts season in AAA)
- 8 starts 48.2 IP 2-1 3.48 ERA 1.29 Whip

25 starts 146.0 IP 4.25 ERA 1.425 WHIP

Faded down stretch. ERA was 3.48 at end of July. Did not make start in Sept/Oct

Bullpen
Heath Bell - traded in July
- 21 saves 2.77 ERA 1.05 Whip

Not traded 67 appearances 70 IP 47 saves 1.200 WHIP

Mike Adams
- 65 appearances 2.55 ERA 1.08 WHIP

70 Appearances 66.2 IP 1.76 ERA 1.065 WHIP

Luke Gregerson
- 65 appearances 3.30 ERA 1.26 WHIP

80 appearances 78.1 IP 3.22 ERA 0.830 Overused and it showed down stretch

Performance will likely decline in 2011

Edward Mujica
- 62 appearances 3.88 ERA 1.22 WHIP

59 appearances 69.2 IP 3.62 ERA 0.933 WHIP

Adam Russell
- 56 appearances 3.79 ERA 1.44 WHIP

12 Appearances 15.2 IP 4.02 ERA 1.213 WHIP - Spent much of the season in AAA and had 14 SV there

Joe Thatcher - (Starts Season on DL)
- 49 appearances 3.18 ERA 1.27 WHIP

65 appearances 35.0 IP 1.29 ERA 0.857 WHIP

Aaron Poreda (Starts season in AAA - Reliever)
- 2 starts, 22 appearances 23.1 IP 0-2 2.78 ERA 1.55 WHIP

Spent entire season in Minors – AA & AAA

Starting 8 (With platoon in CF - 9)
Adrian Gonzalez - Traded in July
- 332 AB .277/.391 24 HR

Not Traded – 591 AB .298/.393 31 HR - TEAM record IBB – 35 of 93 total BB = R.E.S.P.E.C.T.

David Eckstein
- 455 AB .272/.354

442 AB .267 .321

Everth Cabrera
- 570 AB .260/.350 35 SB

212 AB .208 .279 Injured most of season, Miguel Tejada in place when came off DL

Chase Headley
- 550 AB .275/.365 18 HR

610 AB .264/.327 11 HR – he regressed instead of progressing. Fell off face of earth in Sept.

Kyle Blanks
- 530 AB .265/.335 26 HR

102 AB .157 .283 3 HR Injured all season, on DL to stay in May

Tony Gwynn
- 380 AB .275/.355 21 SB

289 AB .204/.304 He stunk at plate, only reason he played as much as he did is outstanding Defense

Scott Hairston
- 425 AB .255/.315 17 HR

295 AB .210/.295 10 HR Only 83 AB after All Star break

Will Venable
- 500 AB .255/.330 22 HR 12 SB

392 AB .245/.324 13 HR 29 SB Ludwick trade & prolonged slumps limited playing time

Nick Hundley
- 405 AB .245/.315 14 HR

273 AB .249/.308 8 HR Hot Torrealba limited playing time

Bench
Jerry Hairston Jr
- 400 AB .257/.317 8 HR 10 SB

430 AB .244/.299 10 HR 9 SB

Oscar Salazar
- 240 AB .284/.344 10 hr

On DL much of season 131 AB .237/.318 3 HR

Matt Stairs
- 210 AB .242/.342 6 Hr

99 AB .232/.306 6 HR

Yorvit Torrealba
- 310 AB .235/.295 5 hr

325 AB .271/.343 7 HR Slumped mightily late, was hitting .300 on Aug 19

So come on folks, pick my picks apart. Let me know how you think I did!

Padres complete swoon with shutout loss to Giants

Sunday October 3, 2010

The San Diego Padres completed their month plus long swoon by rolling over in the final game of the season to hand the NL West title to the San Francisco Giants.

The Padres managed just 4 hits in the shutout loss.

With this final loss they proved all the pundits right. They did not belong on the same field as the good teams that are going to the playoffs.

The gave up about a month ago thanks to piss poor play down the stretch from Ludwick, Torrealba, Headley, Gregerson, and Latos amongst others.

Only Adrian Gonzalez, Will Venable, Miguel Tejada, Tim Stauffer and the bullpen can really hold their heads high after the lack of performance in September and October.

It was a sad end to a promising season.

I will be glad to see several non performers like Ludwick, Gwynn and Scott Hairston leave the organization in the coming weeks.

I am pretty sure Torrealba will not have his option picked up either.

Obviously Correia will not be back.

During this off season the Padres will have some huge decisions to make about the direction of the team and which of the core players will be back.

I will have an article coming on the outlook for 2011 soon.

Padres wimp out. Season over after dropping 3 of 4 to Cubs

Thursday September 30, 2010

The Padres wimped out and dropped 3 of 4 to the sad sack Cubs at Petco this week to effectively seal their fate for 2010.

Your only chance is to sweep FOUR games from the Giants. Yes I know there are only 3 games left in the season, but if by some miracle the Padres were able to sweep 3 from the streaking Giants IN San Francisco there would be a 163rd game to decide the division winner.

Clean up your golf clubs guys, because that is the only game you are going to be playing next week.

You gave up on yourselves. You stopped trying. All of you in every aspect of the game!
As a team:
You had your only losing month of the season.
Pitching:
You had the highest ERA and runs allowed of any month.
Batting:
You had the lowest batting average and lowest OBP of the season.
You had the fewest XBH of any month.
You had the fewest BB of any month.
You had the fewest runs scored of any month (BY 25%!).
You had the lowest # of balls put in play.
You had the lowest number of SB of any month.
Fielding:
You had more errors in September than any other month.
You had the lowest % of DP turned.

And then in this series against the Cubs, the worthless, 86 loss Cubs, you got shut out TWICE! You only scored 5 runs in 4 games.

It was awful to watch your collapse. You mailed it in and it showed.

You don't deserve to be in the playoffs.

Good riddance to those of you that were a big part of that collapse.

Ryan Ludwick - You completely gave up after the trade to the Padres. You were the biggest part of the Padres collapse at the plate down the stretch hitting just .220 as a Padre. You are a disgrace to the Padres uniform.

Luke Gregerson - You had a 7.00+ ERA and that does not even count the inherited runners you allowed to score. You were pathetic in September. Maybe Black overused you early, but that is no excuse. You stunk when it counted most.

Chase Headley - .191 BA. .255 OBP. .150 with men on base. REALLY? And you claim to be a major league hitter? WTF? Worse yet you drove in only 4 baserunners. FOUR for an entire month. Pathetic.


Not going to bag on LeBlanc or Latos. They are rookies who just plain tired out.

That is the coaching staff's fault. That means you Bud Black.

All we can do now is think about next year.

Many questions come up, but that is for another post.